Comments on: Retail Sales: So much for the “Gasoline Effect” http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:06:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: M.Z. Forrest http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27907 M.Z. Forrest Fri, 03 Nov 2006 03:13:39 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27907 I don't foresee a Fed rate cut with the ECB practically announcing a rate increase in December. It would put too much pressure on the dollar. I believe there is a greater liklihood that there will be another Fed Runds Rate increase before there is a decrease. I don’t foresee a Fed rate cut with the ECB practically announcing a rate increase in December. It would put too much pressure on the dollar. I believe there is a greater liklihood that there will be another Fed Runds Rate increase before there is a decrease.

]]> By: Richard http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27906 Richard Fri, 03 Nov 2006 01:07:44 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27906 we need to get through the holiday season before y'all claim victory that we're heading into a 30's style depression. the Fed is looking for a GDP growth rate of 2-2.5%. i think they'll get slightly less over the next 2 quarters and drop the rates to keep the consumer afloat. in the end the Fed is looking for bank stability but i feel they'll blink when the consumer starts to keel over. we need to get through the holiday season before y’all claim victory that we’re heading into a 30′s style depression. the Fed is looking for a GDP growth rate of 2-2.5%. i think they’ll get slightly less over the next 2 quarters and drop the rates to keep the consumer afloat. in the end the Fed is looking for bank stability but i feel they’ll blink when the consumer starts to keel over.

]]> By: Leisa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27905 Leisa Thu, 02 Nov 2006 22:33:02 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27905 Oh Barry...the new permabull (I'm agnostic, mind you) retort is that it's the high end consumer that will shoulder consumer spending (just as cap ex will replace the consumer-- take perverse delight in the sensible capex slashes that have been discussed in the earnings calls--I told you that CFO's would be tight fisted on capex if the economy slows--and just as commercial real estate expenditure will replace residential). And I must commend your lovely turn of the phrase "The camouflage continues to drop like the leaves off of the trees." Oh Barry…the new permabull (I’m agnostic, mind you) retort is that it’s the high end consumer that will shoulder consumer spending (just as cap ex will replace the consumer– take perverse delight in the sensible capex slashes that have been discussed in the earnings calls–I told you that CFO’s would be tight fisted on capex if the economy slows–and just as commercial real estate expenditure will replace residential). And I must commend your lovely turn of the phrase “The camouflage continues to drop like the leaves off of the trees.”

]]> By: Paul http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27904 Paul Thu, 02 Nov 2006 21:59:11 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27904 gas is falling because we are entering a recession. GDP has gone from 5.6%Q1 to 0.9%Q3 (see Bloomberg article on 'revisions'). The comparisons to the 1930's are striking. <a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article-6113.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.safehaven.com/article-6113.htm<a/> gas is falling because we are entering a recession. GDP has gone from 5.6%Q1 to 0.9%Q3 (see Bloomberg article on ‘revisions’). The comparisons to the 1930′s are striking.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6113.htm

]]> By: MAS (San Diego) http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27903 MAS (San Diego) Thu, 02 Nov 2006 20:50:15 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27903 Looks like <a href="http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/2006/11/bullish-ratings.html" rel="nofollow">KUDLOW</a> is doing well. The Big Picture effect! The greatest story never ... Looks like KUDLOW is doing well. The Big Picture effect! The greatest story never …

]]> By: MarkM http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27902 MarkM Thu, 02 Nov 2006 20:44:16 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27902 What is going to be the wooden stake that kills this vampire of a market? Ordinary bullets are not going to do it. Today was proof. I saw about six hits on it today from various bad economic reports and it shrugged them all off. What is going to be the wooden stake that kills this vampire of a market? Ordinary bullets are not going to do it. Today was proof. I saw about six hits on it today from various bad economic reports and it shrugged them all off.

]]> By: anon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27901 anon Thu, 02 Nov 2006 20:26:23 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27901 Gas prices are going up where I am. ='( Maybe this is related to the supply of gasoline falling? Gas prices are going up where I am. =’(

Maybe this is related to the supply of gasoline falling?

]]> By: donna http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27900 donna Thu, 02 Nov 2006 20:05:00 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27900 WalMart is an evil, evil company. See wakeupwalmart.com. Watch the WalMart movie. http://www.walmartmovie.com/. Evil. And worse is the WalMart economy. Which is our current economy. The rich getting all the benefits, the poor getting the crumbs left from the dog's bowl. Evil. WalMart is an evil, evil company. See wakeupwalmart.com.

Watch the WalMart movie.
http://www.walmartmovie.com/.

Evil.

And worse is the WalMart economy. Which is our current economy. The rich getting all the benefits, the poor getting the crumbs left from the dog’s bowl.

Evil.

]]> By: winjr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27899 winjr Thu, 02 Nov 2006 19:40:25 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27899 "I hear this canard all the time. There is a national credit bubble expressed as a housing bubble. Unless Dallas and Charlotte never heard of Countrywide, Ditech, BofA, Downey, Golden West, Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae they are going to suffer as well." Well said, Robert. Dead-on correct. “I hear this canard all the time. There is a national credit bubble expressed as a housing bubble. Unless Dallas and Charlotte never heard of Countrywide, Ditech, BofA, Downey, Golden West, Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae they are going to suffer as well.”

Well said, Robert. Dead-on correct.

]]> By: Steve Kline http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/11/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-27898 Steve Kline Thu, 02 Nov 2006 19:00:17 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2006/11/02/retail-sales-so-much-for-the-gasoline-effect/#comment-27898 If you look at a rate of change of consumer spending it has been trending down and is at its lowest rate since the early '90s. You can see one at www.aheadofthecurve-thebook.com. If you look at a rate of change of consumer spending it has been trending down and is at its lowest rate since the early ’90s. You can see one at http://www.aheadofthecurve-thebook.com.

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