TIcker Sense has a nice few charts up showing how the Markets (Thanksgiving Returns) and the Retail sector perform post Thanksgiving.
Historically, retail stocks run up in anticipation of the holiday season. Once its finally here, many of the gains amy be built in already.
Source: Birinyi Associates
MarketBeat Breaks it down for us:
"Analysts at Birinyi Assoc. looked at the historical performance of various retailers after [BLack Friday] through the end of the year and found that, though shoppers are buying goods in their stores, investors are selling their stocks. During this bull market, which began in 2002, all six groups of retailers Birinyi examined have negative returns from Thanksgiving through year-end, underperforming the S&P 500, which is generally flat during that time period.The worst-performing stocks have been consumer-electronics names, which have lost, on average, 9.1% in the post-Thanksgiving period. The best are clothing retailers, which have lost a mere 1.4%. Going back to 1996, the picture looks a little better. Clothing retailers, general merchandisers and home-improvement stocks have shown positive returns in the Thanksgiving-to-New Year’s period, with gains of 1.75%, 2.74% and 6.31%, respectively, beating the S&P 500’s 0.82% return during that time. But consumer-electronics stores, department stores and specialty retailers have all posted negative returns. Electronics retailers have done the worst, with average losses of 4.39%.
Good stuff . . .
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Sources:
Birinyi Associates
Buying Retailer Goods, Selling Retailer Stocks
David Gaffen
WSJ Marketbeat, November 24, 2006, 10:48 am
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2006/11/24/
buying-retailer-goods-selling-retailer-stocks/
Black Friday??? Mark-Downs??? Wake up America – US government has been rubbing you of your wealth! The most significant mark-down has occurred in the value of your currency (secondary to US government injecting liquidity, borrowing and spending, etc)!
Comparing to 2000, the Dow priced in Euros is down by over 27%; for 2006 (a.k.a. liquidity driven Wall Street’s phony rally) it is only up by about 3% when priced in Euros, compared to its headline 14.5 % advance in sinking U.S. dollars.
Typo: They are robbing (not rubbing)
Hey, I noticed my credit card company is not sending out statements in November. A one month holiday from paying my credit card bill!
It’s good to find the banks are doing their part to prime the pump for the holiday season.
What a wonderful world we live in, what a magical beautiful place.
And “Black Friday” has entirely different connotations for me as I always hear the great Steely Dan song play in my head:
“When Black Friday comes
I’ll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I’ll collect everything I’m owed
And before my friends find out
I’ll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it’s got to be
Don’t let it fall on me …”
Retail sector performance describes the pre-recessionary condition that has evolved in fall 2006.