A quick review of some recent data points:
• Major retailers have dissappointed, either in revs, profits or forecasts: Wal-mart, Best Buy, Circuit City, etc.
• Transports, including FedEx, Yellow RoadWay, and Landstar, have all warned of reduced tonnage volume, profit pressure, and poor outlook.
• Dr. Copper, the metal with the PHD in economics, is now at 6 month lows.
• December Philly Fed survey consensus was +4.0, down from from 5.1 in November. It came in at a negative
since Apr ’03′s -6.8) New orders negative for a second month
in a row, Backlogs plummeted;
• Economic growth in the U.S. slowed in the third quarter to a 2%
annual rate, dragged down by the biggest decline in home building in 15
• NAHB’s index of builder confidence for
sales of new, single-family homes slipped in December to near its lowest level in 15 years; The large inventory of unsold homes has not been reduced.
• New Home Building Permits, which foreshadow future activity, fell 3% in November from October and were 31.3% lower
than a year earlier.
Is this what a soft landing looks like? (We think not)
The slow motion slow down continues . . .
UPDATE: December 23, 2006, 11:17am
Hey, wontcha look at that : Nouriel Roubini offered up a similar list:
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.