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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On August 28, 2007 @ 9:56 am In Real Estate | Comments Disabled

Case_shiller_june [1]

The above chart is through June 2007

We should be hearing from the bottom callers any day now:

“The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “The year-over-year decline reported in the 2nd quarter of 2007 for the National Home Price Index is the lowest point in its reported history, which dates back to January 1987. On a regional level 17 of the 20 metro areas are showing declines in their annual growth rate from what was reported in May.”

During this cycle, Boston was the first metro area to report negative year-over-year returns, back in April 2006. In June 2007, Boston showed an improvement in its annual rate of decline from the value reported in May, –3.9% versus –4.3% reported in May. Boston has shown improvement since the beginning of the year, where its annual growth rate measured –5.5%. More data however, is needed to determine whether Boston, whose growth rate turned negative before other metro areas, is truly the first metro area to turn around.

Note that its a clean sweep: decreases in every city measured, on a year over year basis:

June_case_shiller_cities [2]

Table courtesy of  TFS Derivatives Corp

>

Sources:
Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline in the 2nd Quarter of 2007 [3]
S&P, Aug 28, 2007 09:00 AM EST PDF
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/csnational_release_082857.pdf

Existing Home Sales Slowest in 5 Years [4]
Martin Crutsinger
AP Economics Writer, Monday August 27, 5:11 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070827/economy.html?.v=13

Home inventories rise to 16-year high [5]
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, 12:15 PM ET Aug 27, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/2v89t7


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2007/08/case-shiller-home-price-index-posts-a-record-annual-decline/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2007/08/28/case_shiller_june.png

[2] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2007/08/28/june_case_shiller_cities.png

[3] Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline in the 2nd Quarter of 2007: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/csnational_release_082857.pdf

[4] Existing Home Sales Slowest in 5 Years: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070827/economy.html?.v=13

[5] Home inventories rise to 16-year high: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/existing-home-sales-data-show-us-inventory/story.aspx?guid=%7BEF73D79E%2D8E8E%2D4FD5%2D9F83%2D2C3C3EAE953A%7D&siteid=bnb

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