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Tonite is a very special Kudlow & Company: On CNBC, either 5:00 or 5:10, for just one segment, its just Larry and I, discussing one-on-one just what the hell happened today.

What will we be reviewing? Here are 4 items:

1) For the 2nd consecutive month, Retail Sales were disappointing;

2) Today, BNP Paribas fund suspension caught many off guard. Then, yesterday’s rumor of a Goldman hedge fund blow up turned out to be accurate.

3) The ECB added liquidity to the markets, as did the Fed. Their moves had a faint whiff of panic to them;

4) Volatility spike: after periods of rising markets with low  Volatility, a spike has rarely if ever meant higher near term prices.

To say the least, it should be interesting.

>

UPDATE August  9, 2007 10:22pm

The video is up on CNBC.com
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838446/site/14081545/

Category: Media

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

68 Responses to “Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (8/9/07)”

  1. NUREG says:

    Whoa! Whats up with GS?

  2. Michael Schumacher says:

    much luck with that……I may even run the Tivo while I’m out. At least the ratio is balanced…this time. Watch out I’m sure he will sneak in someone to blind side you.

    Ciao
    MS

  3. Short Man says:

    Barry – can you find out which quant fund was long broker dealers and short homebuilders and now unwinding massively?

    Just a guess….

  4. oyster says:

    I wonder if Larry will wonder (once again) whether investors are becoming spooked by those Democrats in Congress.

    See, the Dems are going to want to spend a few billion more than the president on some bill and that will ruin the GreatestBushBoomStoryNeverTold. Deep down, Larry just knows it.

  5. Bob A says:

    Where do I get a shirt like that!

  6. LAWMAN says:

    BSC and GS really aren’t doing the market any favors by being deceptive about their losses here. Same goes for the numerous REITs and lenders that this week send out a press release claiming all is well, and next week pull their dividend and fire 95% of their staff.

  7. randy says:

    barry, all you have to do is set there.it’s all been said.the organic matter has reached the ocillating mechanical device.still you have to admit he’s got grit to call you out one on one. good luck

  8. babygal says:

    Love the golf shirt-you should make it a style statement!

  9. gn says:

    Did you notice that long bonds were sick even on a down equities day? What happened to “flight to quality”? Maybe US T-bonds aren’t considered quality any more.

    The action felt very different, today.

  10. a guy called john says:

    This just in: it’s all government’s fault.
    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.sowell08aug08,0,522262.story

    But why were housing prices going up so fast in the first place? A number of studies of communities across the United States and in countries overseas turned up the same conclusion: government restrictions on building.

    Yet with all the finger-pointing [...] seldom is a finger pointed at the politicians at local, state and national levels who have played a key role in setting up the conditions that led to financial disasters for individual home buyers and for those who lent to them.

    OMFG, I almost lost it reading this.

  11. SPECTRE of Deflation says:

    Barry, you might want to explain that the fireworks Kudlow is hearing is in fact not a 4th of July celebration, but the credit markets locking up and Hedge Funds being blown out of the water.

    $545 Trillion Dollars in Derivitives says Kudlow is blowing smoke with his strong econmy crap. The FED quit publishing M3 to “save Money” for God’s sake, and we have to listen to how great it is.

    The truth is Larry it ain’t so great for the average American who has seen his wages stagnate while the very wealthy have done quite well. You see, I don’t care what the official CPI says because if you need insurance of all types, education, affordable housing [it;s coming for those in a position to take advantage of some great buys], prescription drugs, FOOD and FUEL you know that inflation is rampant but was disquised by asset bubbles which fed into an even greater credit bubble. We are now witnessing the fruits of Wall Streets labors. Let them eat fruit!

  12. Eclectic says:

    The f’ing market is down close to 4 C Notes, and you’re on the f’ing golf course?

  13. brian says:

    Ramblin’ around your city
    Ramblin’ around your town
    I never see a friend I know
    As I go ramblin’ ’round boys
    As I go ramblin’ ’round

    My mother hoped that I might be
    A man of some renown
    But I am just a refugee
    As I go ramblin’ ’round boys
    As I go ramblin’ ’round

    The peach trees they are loaded
    The branches bending down
    I pick ‘em all day for a dollar boys
    As I go ‘ramblin ’round
    As I go ‘ramblin’ ’round

    Sometimes the fruit gets rotten
    And falls on to the ground
    There’s a hungry mouth for every peach
    As I go ramblin’ ’round boys
    As I go ramblin’ ’round

    woody guthrie

  14. Furioso says:

    Is there an online stream for Kudlow and Co? No TV in the office.

  15. bucky katt says:

    This pretty well sums the subprime lender game, and it’s from the 1960′s>>>>>>>>>

    THE GAME THAT YOU’RE PLAYIN’ IS TOO HIGH CLASS
    AND YOU’RE LIVIN’ BEYOND ALL YOUR MEANS
    AND THE MAN IN THE COAT HAS JUST BOUGHT A NEW CAR
    ON THE PROFIT HE MADE OFF YOUR DREAMS…

    TRAFFIC
    (LOW SPARK OF HIGH HEELED BOYS)

    (I posted this on my SI thread 3/27/2007

  16. MarkM says:

    “The Sweater” has competition?! My lawyers are gonna be all over you first thing in the morning.

    Mark McCormack, President
    The Sweater Marketing Group LLC

  17. BuffaloT says:

    Where’s Fred been lately?

  18. yc32 says:

    Talk is cheap. The question is anybody shorting the market right now? I am buying emerging markets and dow.

  19. RW says:

    gn agreed, strange action — slop and divergence in equities, bonds, the pits — wonder if injections of liquidity are going to cure this or just turn it into diarrhea?

  20. Pool Shark says:

    BuffaloT,

    Funny, I was wondering the exact same thing.

    I wonder how his portfolio looks NOW..

  21. angryinch says:

    Fred’s been feeling a little subprime lately.

  22. Jdog33 says:

    OK, OK, you bears have gotten to me. I instructed my broker to liquidate another 10 – 15% of my equities in the AM and we are putting in a large order to buy the SDS ETF. If we have another 5 – 10% to fall, I’m at least not going down without some portion of protection on my 60% stake in equities.

    This may end up being the worst, but it doesn’t take very much for this market to puke and I’m done worrying. The last three weeks have been 100+ degrees out and the way the market has been reacting, I’m starting to feel like I’m literally and figuratively in hell.

    Welcome a new member to the BEAR camp!

  23. Heather says:

    Today, on a very special Blossom…

    Barry, can you help me? Is there any way short of taping Kudlow every day (or staying glued to the computer and watching for updates) that I can catch your segments?

  24. Rob Dawg says:

    Eleventy bazillion West Coast Investor points for the “uniform” Mr. R. It ain’t the Hermes tie choking the blood flood, it is the big picture inside the big melon on top of your neck that matters. I never understood why it isn’t considered a good thing to look like you got pulled of the golf coursde for a few sage comments. I mean the market is off 380 points and you are golfing? Smartest guy in the room in my opinion.

  25. Pool Shark says:

    Welcome Jdog,

    We all knew it would happen; the only question was when.

    This week, the markets answered that question.

    btw, did anyone notice that even with 10-year treasury yields down (a feeble flight to quality), 30-year fixed mortgage rates (especially jumbos) are skyrocketing?

    Between higher mortgage rates, and tighter lending standards (not to mention the bulk of ARM’s resetting beginning in October), the housing market is “FREAKIN’ DOOMED!”

  26. Pool Shark says:

    btw Barry,

    I too was golfing today while the market tanked.

    Ignorance is bliss.

    (Shot a great round too…)

  27. brion says:

    “Welcome a new member to the BEAR camp!”

    Don’t you mean the “Dem Bear Liberal Commie Camp” jdog?

  28. Jay Weinstein says:

    Before the assembled bears claw me to death, and I am holding a huge cash position BTW [i don't hedge or short], let me point out that the market is UP 1.5% for the week and all of 6% off its ALL TIME RECORD.

    There was a very strong bid today and yesterday for small and local banks, though not for the big IB and money centers.

    So unless it gets worse, and I don’t know if it will or won’t, the bears hardly have much to growl about.

    As I have said before, industrial non-auto America is booming–look at the Danaher’s of the world for example.

    So far, this is a very sector by sector decline—techs and industrials doing well, reits, financials getting hammered

    reasonable comments appreciated thanks to BR for the forum as always..

  29. donna says:

    It’s not about being bears, it’s about knowing when unsustainable conditions exist.

    Watching it happen is no more fun just because you’ve been right.

  30. Ryan Bush says:

    Through all this mess one of CNBC’s features this quote:

    “I think this is the Hindenburg. We’ve got all of this bad mortgage paper all around the world and it’s going to get worst.” said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

    Thanks for the breath taking expression Schiff.

    Oh the humanity!

  31. VJ says:

    Cramer was just on the NBC Nightly News, again BEGGING the Fed to cut the rate !

    He must have taken a beating in the market.
    .

  32. The Barry video is up on CNBC.

    Kudlow CNBC

    Click on the link for Market Drilldown (Aug 9th)

  33. Idaho_Spud says:

    Who says this site is full of bears? Just because someone doesn’t wear rose-tinted glasses doesn’t mean they are necessarily a bear…

    Welcome to the reality-based community. We have been marveling for a long time at how long Wiley Coyote has been running through mid-air at 13,000-14,0000 feet of (Dow) elevation.

  34. Winston Munn says:

    Donna wrote: “It’s not about being bears, it’s about knowing when unsustainable conditions exist.

    Watching it happen is no more fun just because you’ve been right.”

    Well said, Donna. From my perspective, the discussions here are not so much market driven but reality driven – looking for the divergence between what is real and what is believed to be real.

    I would hope that most who post here would rather see an uncompromising bull market – but one based on good, sound reasons – than to witness a meltdown.

    To me, trading is simply a matter of taking a position on reality verses hype, either negative hype or positive hype. Short or long are only temporary conditions, not a way of life.

    Myself, I don’t find that many bears around here – just a bunch of folks trying to see through the fog.

  35. Sammy20 says:

    Barry, I almost always either agree with you or at least understand your point…however, tonight you compared Bernake to Volcker.

    Besides the fact that that is just plain ridiculous. You didn’t even mention that he has no choice but to sit on his hand due to the dollars precarious situation or the fact that the Fed today injected $24 billion into the economy (guess monetizing debt doesn’t count as inflationary).

    All Bernake has done is jawboned and prayed. Inflation fighter my arse! If he is worried about inflation raise rates…I am still in disbelief over your comments.

    I mean really, I can’t believe that was you!!!

  36. VJ says:

    From this morning’s White House Press Conference:

    the fundamentals of our economy are strong … Job creation is strong. Real after-tax wages are on the rise. Inflation is low.

    Must be an acid flashback. He thinks it’s 1997, not 2007.
    .

  37. Si says:

    Jeez, lots of disasterisation going on. How far is the market down from all time highs. Starting to feel like amateur hour out there. Cramer is a bloody disgrace.

  38. Eclectic says:

    Sammy,

    Once there was an unknown young fighter from Louisville Kentucky named Cassius Clay.

  39. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Good appearance today. The shirt was a nice change of pace.

    And to think you weren’t asked to share time with Jerry Brower.

  40. andiron says:

    barry compared bernanke to volker as he has ulterior motives!!
    oh well.

  41. VJ says:

    Si,

    How far is the market down from all time highs

    The S&P 500 was down about 18% from where it was in 2000 in inflation-adjusted dollars, prior to the recent declines.
    .

  42. F. Frederson says:

    “inflation-adjusted dollars”

    Shhh, stop attempting to adjust for reality. The marks retail investors might rise up against their overlords.

  43. Winston Munn says:

    Jay Weinstein wrote: “So far, this is a very sector by sector decline—techs and industrials doing well, reits, financials getting hammered”

    This is how market tops form – the leaders start to roll over one-by-one. Eventually, everyone follows suit.

    There is real risk that we are in the intital leg of a new bear market, and if so, how deep it will be will be determined by the world’s ability to detach itself from the U.S. economy.

    Nouriel Roubini doesn’t think it can – and I suspect he is right.

  44. Chief Tomahawk says:

    If we have another down day tomorrow, I can hardly wait for the FOX News Saturday Morning Business Block. Might even fire up the dvr, though I suspect they might substitute two hours of Paris Hilton at the last moment.

    Anyone have a read on the Yen carry trade tonight?

  45. It is very disappointing that the bankers of last resort buckled – just like the normal retail investing schmoes do. Pathetic!!!

    Let the markets work, and we’ll be on our way to new highs inside of 6 months.

  46. Winston Munn says:

    No one has yet touched on what I consider the biggest news of the day.

    Courtesy of Kevin Depew at Minyanville:

    “Overnight European money market rates surged and the European Central Bank said it would provide unlimited funds at a below-market rate of 4% to avert a liquidity crisis, Bloomberg reported.

    In response the European Central Bank injected €94.8bn into the money markets to shore up confidence in the financial system, the Financial Times reported, an unprecedented level of intervention.”

    To prevent a liquidity CRISIS? CONFIDENCE in the financial system? Aren’t those the unspeakabele C-words?!?! C that rhymes with P and stands for PANIC?!?! Panic as in BANK RUNS!?!? Unprecedented level of invervention?!?!?

    What year is this again?

    (And oh, by the way, FCBs were net sellers of treasuries last week. I wonder why?)

  47. Si says:

    VJ,

    The S&P 500 was down about 18% from where it was in 2000 in inflation-adjusted dollars, prior to the recent declines.

    Don’t know what to make of that, which measure of inflation are we talking about…reality or the public consumption model.

  48. Winston Munn says:

    Middle Relief wrote: “It is very disappointing that the bankers of last resort buckled – just like the normal retail investing schmoes do. Pathetic!!!

    Let the markets work, and we’ll be on our way to new highs inside of 6 months.”

    I’m not sure I follow the logic. Are you saying the Fed buckled by holding rates, not cutting rates, or not raising rates?

    Let the markets work…as in Fed Reserve intervention?

    Inquiring minds, don’t you know.

  49. Peterpaul says:

    as of 10:46 Tokyo time the yen is down -1.14 on the dollar to 117.9.

    Let us see what happens when Europe is up…

  50. Winston Munn says:

    A little more “containment”

    “In an unusual step, the Bank of Canada said Thursday it will ‘provide liquidity to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets.’

    ‘The bank is closely monitoring developments, and will deal with issues as they arise,’ it said in a statement.

    By mid afternoon, the central bank had made more than $1.6 billion available to Canadian banks at its regular interest rate, far more than its recent cash infusions into the financial system.”

    Money makes the vorld go round, the vorld go round, the vorld go round, money makes the vorld go round…

  51. speedlet says:

    Bernanke may or may not prove to be tougher than Greenspan, but he’s got a looooong way to go before you can mention him in the same breath as Paul Volcker.

  52. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Thanks, PeterPaul. It appears to be holding.

    I hope the PPT has a good international calling plan.

  53. Jdog33 says:

    How are my fellow bears playing the short side of this market? Any thoughts as to which indicies to go short (Russell 2000, S&P 500 or NAZ)? I think since most of the financials lay in the S&P, I like SDS.

    With the Russell showing good relative strength today (and the fact that it is down about 9% from its high a couple of weeks ago), I’m thinking the S&P is where the most additional damage will be done.

    Are there any ETF’s which allow you to short the Asian and/or Emerging Markets? Japan looks extremely weak these days.

    One question I do have though is with 2nd quarter earnings coming in so strong, do my fellow bears think 2Q was the peak in the earnings cycle and that most companies will be warning/under performing expectations in Q’s 3 and 4? The fact that the S&P P/E ratio is now hovering around 15 does seem to me to say the market isn’t THAT over-valued or does the good ole P/E ratio not really matter any longer (sort of like the eyeballs back in the good ole .com days)?

  54. Winston Munn says:

    Containment – per Bloomberg futures 10:45 p.m. Eastern:

    MEX BOLSA -872.00
    BOVESPA 0.00

    Europe/Africa

    DJ EURO STOXX -92.00
    FTSE 100 -115.00
    EURO -124.00
    DAX -156.50
    IBEX -158.00
    S&P/MIB -442.00
    AMSTERDAM -11.35
    OMXS30 -32.12
    SWISS MARKET -125.00

    Asia/Pacific

    NIKKEI -510.00
    HANG SENG -752.00
    SPI 200 -181.00

    Whew…that was close….good thing it didn’t spread.

  55. Jdog33 says:

    This is a f-ing train wreck. I really can’t believe the Fed didn’t at least change their bias. That was a really bad move IMHO.

    It gives them little ability to cut in Sept. without looking like they are panicking. I am amazed at the worldwide contagion of this issue.

    Gotta give Barry credit for talking about this long before it came on the radar. That being said, I’m not sure even Barry tied all the pieces together regarding the credit crunch, hedge fund liquidations, overseas market panic, etc. I think he was more concerned with the impact on the consumer, which in turn would hurt mainly the US economy and US equities.

  56. Woodshedder says:

    Jdog- you are late to the party. If you short now, you are going to get whipped around. Wait for another rally, and then sell it.

  57. Groty says:

    Central banks in Europe, U.S., Canada, Japan, and Australia have all intervened to supply liquidity. It’s clear now why Cramer was so passionate. He knows much more than he has said publicly.

  58. Jdog33 says:

    HS Dent Forecast Update
    August 9, 2007

    This is a short update just to reconfirm why we think this correction is over or very close. The Total Put to Call Ratio or “Dumb Money” Chart, as published by Hays Advisory, is showing the highest level of fear in 15 years — greater than 2002 or 1998.

    We should see a strong rally out of here soon. The best buy targets near-term would be 2,560 on the Nasdaq and 13,380 on the Dow.

  59. jules says:

    Wow…you new, and old bears are really foaming at the mouth.

    Which is the “easier” trade — long or short?

    So we have a GLOBAL RATE CUT happening (so the dollar won’t collapse)…what happens when the Fed cuts the discount rate, and Prime Rate falls hard? Suddenly those Alt A loan re-sets are a non event. Oh, and S&P just reviewed the Alt A’s and ONLY .2% ARE UNDER REVIEW!!

    Talk about a bear trap!

    Fade the fear.

  60. Heh. This is not a train wreck. We’ll see if the train actually wrecks. Save your drama.

  61. Jay Weinstein says:

    I say this site is full of bears, at least the vast majority of comments since i have been a regular reader are clearly bearish. I have tried to make clear that I am a bear as well.

    The comments about returns since 2000 are irrelevant–last I checked, it is 2007. Now if you can tell me something about 2010, I would greatly appreciate it.

    So let me rephrase my question: we all agree on the asset bubble catastrophe blowing up. But is it a) the next Great Depression b) a deep recession c) a normal recession d) a mild recession e) just a growth slowdown.

    Is the market effect a) just beginning, we have 20+ percent more to go on the downside b) 10-19% more to go c) 0-10% more d) the worst is over…

    As my previous comments indicate, I am a long only stock picker—i am too simple to worry about complicated instruments. Even if you are not sanguine about the financial blowup in mortgages, you must be bullish on something. thanks in advance…

  62. jules says:

    How do I get me one of them Short thingies?

  63. matt m says:

    Barry,

    Are you still heavily long? I know you mentioned on Bloomberg last week that you were and I’m curious if you made any position changes. I’m always confused about why people have one stance in the media and another stance in their portfolio. Not being a wiseass…just wondering.

  64. michael schumacher says:

    mat-

    Why is that so difficult for you to understand? I’ve told you (and others) that’s possible and most likely going on with the majority of people here.

    Just because you can’t comprehend it should’nt mean that we all think the same.

    Ciao
    MS

  65. matt m says:

    No one has to think the same my friend. I asked a question that’s all. As usual, keep a lazer beam focus on your discipline….trust it…and take the trades as they come. I just get a kick out of posters and commentators that don’t trust their own work. My question seems simple….if you feel the credit/housing situation will cause a major dislocation then why the hell are you heavily long? Seems like a normal question. As for you ole MS…there is no doubt in my mind that the market beats you to death. Your much to smart for the market.

  66. michael schumacher says:

    You have no idea……..

    You think that people do as they say all the time?? Not in this biz…..
    you’ve got quite a bit to learn about the market if that is your attitude.

    Do as I say is not the mantra here…..it’s do as I do. But that is where the problems really begin.

    You’ve no idea…

    Ciao
    MS

  67. matt m says:

    MS…you haven’t gotta clue.

  68. michael schumacher says:

    that’s all you got???

    thanks for playing…

    Ciao
    MS