you should remember barry, for everyone who’s short gamma, there’s someone on the long side.
classic expiration play is to push the short players to puke…hit their sell stops on the down side, and their buy stops to the upside. so long as the mkt remains hedgeable, doesn’t criss-cross their strike or significantly gap open, they shouldn’t feel a dramatic amount of pain.
conversely, the long players want the market to go to extremes, and although they may be making a punt, they don’t necessarily want to be naked short or naked long when they exercise their in-the-moneys, hence they will also be hedging…buying to the downside, and selling on any rallies…it’s a high stakes game of chicken, if you will. who is going to blink first? generally the short players will, because they have more significant risk, but eventually the long players will step in to hedge. in the end, the short gamma players will exacerbate any initial move, but the long players will ultimately provide a floor, and in many occasions, create a reversal, even a squeeze, as they scramble to lock in their profits…unless, of course, they’re really greedy.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

http://fms.treas.gov/tip/index.html

I make it a point to check these sites in the context of whatever crap that comes out of the Fed and Treasurey. It’s easily and widely available…….you must come to your own conclusions which lends itself to the smoke and mirrors approach that both these entities have in reporting the reality of what all this “liquidity” is really doing.

Estragon-

I hear you…however NOTHING will occur in that region of the world unless we let it. Now that can be because of stupidity (we’ve seen how well Iraq is going) or an attempt to actually facilitate Turkey’s fear of being overrun by people it does’nt really like.

I still do not see how the public is supposed to believe that Turkey is going to defy the US and invade Iraq, but that would be oh so fitting on GW’s watch would’nt it

Refugee or political issue aside…..Turkey is our lap dog in the middle east along with the saudis.

Ciao
MS

We’re way off topic here, but seeing as there’s a new post up I’ll chime in on the Turkey thing.

That US troops are a day’s drive away doesn’t matter. Any sort of military confrontation between the US and Turkey is simply out of the question at this point.

My read on this is that Turkey has real
concerns with Kurds from Iraq supporting the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey, and they’re annoyed the US isn’t able (or perhaps willing) to keep the Iraqi Kurds better controlled. From the US standpoint, the Turkish sabre rattling may even be helpful to the extent that it pressures the Iraqi government to get on with stabilizing the country. Absent that stabilization, Iraq probably splinters, and Turkey will want act to ensure a big hunk of Turkey doesn’t end up in a greater Kurdistan.

My guess is the Turks will get quiet assurances that if the situation in Iraq degenerates into chaos, Turkey has tacit permission to do what it sees fit. The Iraqi kurds will probably figure that out, and they may see it as being in their interest to move an Iraqi comprimise forward.

I wouldn’t put this down to oil interests jamming prices up. In fact, it isn’t in conventional producers medium/long term interests to do so. Even at these levels, we’re already beginning to see substitution, demand destruction, and increased exploitation of higher cost reserves. The thing in Turkey makes lots of sense all by itself.

I’ll take your word for it, but you are always tossing around all that repo data…

So who’s pumping the oil up. Hedge funds still? Are they still playing that futures game (buying then cancelling contracts) with the crude futures. I’m getting ready to take the other side of the oil bet…I know it’s crazy, but I have the time to let it play out.

How many U.S. troops are sitting within less than a day’s drive from the capital of Turkey?

More to the point, one of the largest air bases the US has in the area is in Turkey, Incirlik (SP?)

I think you have the answer….

When “Strikes in Nigeria” no longer has the desired result of pumping oil then you try something else……

Ciao
MS

What do you put the odds at for that happening? It sure would help my positions. He I want war to help my positions, isn’t that sad….lol

My strong point is not collecting the data or finding it….it’s analyzing it and reading between the lines. I am not that different than many others. With my observations that tend to be what people call conspiratorial I really wish that I was wrong but there is much evidence that supports what I’ve said.

one of the best quotes I’ve seen here came from Barry I think…”you won’t see anything if your head is inside your ass” or something along those lines…….truer words have not been spoken.

Just like Turkey is going to “invade” Iraq…

Ciao
MS