Comments on: NFP: Birth/Death Adjustments

By: The Big Picture

The Big Picture — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 14:12:31 +0000

More NFP: Worse than Reported

This weekend, we noted that in terms of job creation, the 2002-07 post-recession recovery was the very worst in the post-WWII era. This was in response to the pundit commentary that job losses aren’t nearly as bad today as the 2001 mild consumer-led re…

By: Asha Banglore

Asha Banglore — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 17:04:02 +0000

The birth/death adjustment process to reflect creation and shutdowns of businesses not counted in the survey has contributed substantially to the overall job creation reported. In the twelve months ended November, this procedure accounted for 78% of the jobs created where as it made up only 47% of payroll employment created in the twelve months ended November 2006. The upshot is that hiring is probably noticeably slower than implied by the headline payroll numbers because of this procedure.

By: Charlei

Charlei — Sun, 09 Dec 2007 22:38:13 +0000

? Juan or santa Claus?

By: Below The Crowd

Below The Crowd — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 01:30:00 +0000

Brief Notes

It’s been a busy few months. I’ve been dating, working and considering new career options. In between I’ve been writing very little. The Casey Saga came back and then went away again, as did fellow blogger Aspeth. I switched bars…

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 03:38:58 +0000

Awesome post Barry (and this comes from a long time reader).

If/when you have time to reflect on this weeks data, could you also talk a bit about how revisions are so dramatically different from the original numbers that get reported?

Thanks.

By: Joel Prakken

Joel Prakken — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 20:12:07 +0000

Comments from Macroeconomic Advisers, the fine folks who compute the ADP National Employment Report: interesting discussion, but here are some clarifiers….

(1) Barry is incorrect in saying that we attempt to reproduce the BLS Net Birth/Death modeling in the ADP National Employment Report.

(2) Sean is correct in saying that the acceleration in employment for November shown in the ADP National Employment Report is unrelated to our treatment of births / deaths.

(3) The chart is irrelevant before March of 2006 (that is, the last benchmark), since none of the BLS data before then is based on the BLS modeling of net births and deaths.

(4) Since BLS already has announced the March 2007 benchmark estimate for total employment, we know how much in error the BLS birth-death adjustment was over the period from March 2006 through March 2007. It was slightly high on average.

(5)Since March of 2007, the chart becomes more interesting.

By: hocus pocus

hocus pocus — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 19:51:44 +0000

“In politics, we have reality ex-facts”

Stephen Colbert calls this “truthiness”.

Hocus Pocus…

By: A Dash of Insight

A Dash of Insight — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 17:09:45 +0000

BLS Hypothetical Job Growth is 2500% of Total!!

The attention-getting headline for today’s article is true, but misleading. It parallels the monthly assault on the BLS Birth/Death model from Barry Ritholtz and others. In the most recent article, Barry incorrectly writes that the BLS has substituted …

By: Gwyan Rhabyt

Gwyan Rhabyt — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 17:00:23 +0000

What is the formula governing how much of the CES data is from the B/D model? If we are at the inflection point of a normal business cycle, would the percentage attributed to the actual sample increase over the next few months? Is the effect of this method of calculating CES that it delays the visibility of recession-like unemployment? Or does it permanently understate unemployment in all phases of the cycle?

By: Francois Theberge

Francois Theberge — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 15:35:52 +0000

“In economics, we have inflation ex-inflation.
In finance, we have mark-to-model.
In employment, we have model-to-model.”

Well said. I’d add to this list:

In politics, we have reality ex-facts.

Francois