Andrew Burkly of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co puts out a list of significant numbers each January. Its a clever way to think about various aspects of the market and the economy — by the numbers.
These are his "8 Big Numbers" for 2008.
The S&P 500 Index needs to close above its March 2000 peak of 1552, as well as break its 2007 trading range of 1575 – 1370
to keep the structural bull market intact. An upside break of the range
would indicate that the volatile trading of 2007 was merely a
high-level consolidation. One indication that the bull market is back
in gear would be the number ofcommon stocks hitting net new 52-week highs climbing back into the 500 range.
Domestic equity funds witnessed outflows in 2007 totaling $54 billion suggesting that investor sentiment is far from euphoric. Finally, the average gain during year 4 of the presidential election cycle has been 8.9% since 1928.
Meanwhile in 2008, 3.6% is a key level to watch for the 10-year Treasury yield, the commodity bull market moves into its 6th year, and the S&P 500 Energy Sector looks for its fourth sector performance crown in five years – a winning percentage of .800.
1. “1552” The March 2000
peak in the S&P 500 Index
2. “1575-1370” – The 2007 trading range in the S&P 500
3. “500” The number
of stocks hitting net new 52-week highs in a healthy market
4. “-54” Outflows ($billions) from
domestic funds in 2007 (through Nov.)
5. “4 2008 is year 4 of the presidential election cycle
6. “3.6%” A significant
support level for the 10-year Treasury yield
7. “6” 2008 marks the 6th year of the commodity
8. “.800” Energy going for its fourth sector performance crown in five years
Good stuff. Thanks, Andrew . . .
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