Here are the 3 videos from todays appearance:
Wheres the Bottom? 11:00am
The Last Call 11:55am
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Quotes:
"Getting close to a tradeable low, and an 8%, 10%, 12% bounce. Slowly legging in for the trade"
and
"Sentiment is at an extreme negative level, and Liquidity is high, those two factors support a trading bottom."
Who said I was a perma-bear?
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I hardly got a word in edgewise here, but the argument between Steven Liesman and Rick Santelli is very funny: Fed to the Rescue (11:20am )
Saw you on TV, you looked good. The only reporter on CNBC that has a lick of sense and credibility is Santelli because he gets the big picture. No pun intended.
Bummer!
Can’t get either of the two videos to load even when I go directly to the CNBC website. Don’t know where the third video is. Can’t find it on your website.
Barry: How does liquidity support a bottom? Over the past 3 months, I’ve seen enough instances of low volume rally/high volume decline that I wouldn’t bet my neighbor’s money on liquidity as an indicator (and I hate that @$$hole).
hold on..i thought liquidity vaporizes as credit crunch continues..the retrace will be very feeble..i will play from the short side as usual
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU Check it out. It’s too funny
bottom??
what if we get bad economic numbers tomorrow or next week? is that taken care by the govt?
technical indicators are only so much helpful, i am sure technically nobody would have known 75 pt rate cut.
and then todays 600 pt reversal of DOW.
this can be the bottom only if economic numbers are painted rosy going forward, or we get another 50 pt rate cut next week.
Speaking of funny and Rick Santelli, here is another enjoyable video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU
7.5 billion shares today.
And before Friday we had never had a 6 billion day. Astounding.
Funny video Barry–Steve Liesman says you and Santelli are living in a fantasy world.
A 50% retrace from the Dec 10 highs to the 11,900 lows (I’ll ignore the first 20 mins of yesterdays action) would get us back to the 12,800 range. Certainly possible given the volatility we have been seeing but I’d lean slightly against it and say this leg tops below 12,500 (which means we’ll close tomorrow at 13,000).
To me today’s action echoes the initial reaction after BoA’s $2B charitable donation to CFC in August which sparked a rather temporary belief that the mortgage banking sector could be saved. Q1 will be brutal for earnings and as the action on Apple today shows, the market has a hair trigger and will punish said stocks on misses/downward guidance. Just wait until mid to late Feb when the Q1 earnings picture becomes clearer and more announcements come out.
Being over 50% in cash now, will add an unit of DXD/QID/SRS every 150pts up from here.
Barry – you are a god, you are so smart
Can’t see the video either…
(I’m on a mac)
Ponder this. Think of how high the S&P500 would be if the financials and retail weren’t 50% off.
Well done Barry.
Barry,
found the third video (click on the highlight below 2nd video). I already have applauded you and Joe Bat. many times… but I am going to have to add Santelli to my list now. That man has got it right. Barry, you did great!! It would be nice if Dylan would of let you respond in the final seconds instead of adding his comedy routine, like usual.
does anyone know the reason for the big bounce?
“Getting close to a tradeable low, and an 8%, 10%, 12% bounce. Slowly legging in for the trade”
You and every technical analyst feels this way. And nowadays, everybody is a technical analyst. It will be interesting to see what happens.
commedy central aka CNBC says today that note INTC who had such cautious guidance for next few quarters- was bit up, but hey, look at it today its rallying– people should buy INTC and techs as the economy is better now, the fed solved the problems of the world. BARRY- y waste your time and your credibility being on CNBC? its such a joke
Barry … you’re the smartest guest they ever have on that network!
bassface: try using the Firefox browser on your MAC when visiting CNBS’s video galleries. If that doesn’t work, visit Flip4Mac for a free browser plug-in. http://www.flip4mac.com/wmv_download.htm
“does anyone know the reason for the big bounce?”
Stocks were highly oversold and the shorts had to cover. Nothing else has changed.
This type of Bear market rally happened in late October 1929. They broke all the volume records then too. Don’t fall for it.
J. Borchers – Don’t Financials and Retail (i.e. Consumer Spending) make up like 50% of the SP500? Hmm, I guess maybe your comment was more to be funny. My apologies if I’ve missed that.
Also, I’m a bit confused on your long term view. In an earlier post you mentioned how you traded from short to long. Are you basically riding bounce, or do you think this is a longer term rally?
I’m simply curious. Thanks in advance.
Great Job Barry.
I posted my thoughts earlier, you and Santelli were great. Liesman and Chief Clown Rathair did gang up on you in the pack mentality of that show. But I suppose its the only way you can get on financial TV.
Thanks for a great website.
i heard that bond insurers are getting backed up by new york state or something.
and of course more rate cut in a week.
and oil and commodity falling.
mortgage rates are also falling
This guy has pretty much been a perma-Bull in the past:
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Oh, before we know it, companies will be hiring again, and the nail guns, and hammers will be waking us up at 7am, again! Go big bull market go! LOL! I’m keeping my short in.
techy: read through this link and the comments to get a decent primer on the rally cause / monoline story ….
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/banks-being-pressured-to-bail-out-bond.html
Steve Liesman reminds me of Fredo:
“Michael… you..can’t..talk..to..Mo.. Green..like..that!”
Let it all bounce then, and re-short.
Charts for the Big Bounce bounce that’s developing: (http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/01/charts-for-big-bounce.html)
TheFinancialNinja
Great link dukeb! Thank you.
Michael Metz a perma-bull?
Are you kidding me?
He makes Abelson look like Kudlow.
During his last appearance on the Nightly Business Report ‘Market Monitor’:
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ok, I don’t know anything….
but I think if you look at every bear market this is what happens, we test the downtrend line (somwhere between 1400-1500, right now) and then we test … and probably break through to new lows. We will do this till; we all want to vomit or we start creating jobs or the Financial markets are Destroyed and anarchy and gunplay break out in the streets.
Downtrend over…. and now……
Strangly it’s the way capitalisum works…. god bless America.
I could be wrong.
Is every government now intent on propping up their stock markets?
>>>In Japan, lawmakers also urged financial firms to consider exempting or cutting fees on stock trades to attract retail investors and proposed other tax breaks, including on capital spending and income tax.
The proposals, which were submitted to Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, call for the steps to be in place until the Nikkei recovers to 18,000. It was around 13,000 on Thursday.<<< So, to every retailer out there, buy stocks because commissions are low? Is it a good investment...who cares!?! And shit...why stop at 18,000?
Barry,
You are a perma-realist.
Surprising the number of people who can’t grasp this.
I don’t think the “roar back up” is going to be any place where most of the fast-money pundits are suggesting. This market is like playing with dynomite – boom!
If you knew the game how could you short cover? Make some quick money and whisper bail out options. Nothing has changed that we know of. Ambac stock has gone up the last 2 days? What od these investors know that we don’t? I wonder how insolvent the monolines actually are, or are they pulling an Allstate after a hurricane. Sorry we are broke, not much different than jingle mail.