Comments on: Media Appearance: CNBC’s Squawk on the Street (1/10/08)

By: blam

blam — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 13:05:15 +0000

Only a 10 percent sag into the annual low ? Seems too low, I wouldn’t be surprised by S&P at 1100. Hope your right.

By: danf

danf — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 11:06:27 +0000

Why would anyone buy a gold miner instead of the metal itself and take outright possession?
——
The maximum Long Term Capital Gain tax rate for collectibles (including precious metals) is 28%.

The maximum LTCG tax rate for stock is 15%.

So you may get taxed more on gold.

By: PJ

PJ — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 00:57:43 +0000

Nice forecasting and financial writing, but know that a limerick has 5 lines, not 4.

By: Pat Gorup

Pat Gorup — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 00:28:57 +0000

Why would anyone buy a gold miner instead of the metal itself and take outright posession? Also, why is it that money managers/analysts consistently refer to gold specifically and not precious metals in general? When other countries start cutting their benchmark rates the dollar will begin to firm and oil prices will pull back. Gold is specifically linked to the fate of both the dollar and oil. Silver has thrived between 2002-2007 because of our economy and in the future will benefit as a hedge against inflation.

By: kio

kio — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 17:39:43 +0000

Predicted S&P 500 returns for 2008.

So, our prediction for 2007 was accurate enough considering uncertainty in corresponding population (9-year-olds) measurements. Figure 1 below displays annual returns – measured and predicted. For December 2007, predicted value was in the range 1440-1450. Actual level was 1467. We do not re-calibrate our model for this final value and present monthly SP 500 levels for 2008, as obtained in August 2007 (see our post on calibration issue). We will likely re-calibrate the model in 2009, when a new fall comes.
Relevant (annual) returns, which are fixed to 6% before October 2008, are also in Figure 1 -
http://www.futuresboard.com/?ab=board&forum=1&board=2&thread=3616

Table 1 presents monthly returns and corresponding close levels of S&P 500.
Month Close Return
Jan 1503. 0.024
Feb 1523. 0.013
Mar 1491. -0.021
Apr 1505. 0.010
May 1570. 0.041
Jun 1621. 0.031
Jul 1537 -0.052
Aug 1568. 0.020
Sep 1643 0.047
Oct 1621. -0.012
Nov 1820 0.122
Dec 1770 -0.027

Notice an upward move in May, June, and November. Since population data are not too much reliable, one can expect actual start of the jump to the level of 1800 in October, 2008. But November 2008 should the month of surprise.
Figure 2 provides a general view on cumulative returns starting from 198. Predicted cumulative return gives several next years with elevated annual returns.

Details in:
Ivan O. Kitov, Oleg I. Kitov
Exact prediction of SP 500 returns
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6056/1/MPRA_paper_6056.pdf

By: michael schumacher

michael schumacher — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:28:43 +0000

yet again…..more hot air to the rescue. This is disgusting……

make it a little less obvious

Ciao
MS

By: Peggy

Peggy — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:32:08 +0000

This market has been so volatile all year, I blame it on the options traders. Seems to me it will continue to yo yo.

Home prices need to come down. They have been rising too much too fast.

Peggy

By: mal

mal — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:24:16 +0000

Have you read this article at National review? Any opinion?

Misguided Recession Talk
If Washington acts accordingly, today’s gloomy economic predictions will quickly become yesterday’s news.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NzM3NWI5ZGRjOTk1ZGY1ODY2YmZhYmRlZDk2MWE0NTI=

By: barley

barley — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:17:34 +0000

I am less optimistic for 2008, than you. On a macro level, considerable wage pressures from the service sector, but not labour as the trend has been multi-year contracts at low pay-raise levels, this will be inflationary.

I also do not see residential/commercial construction improving until 2011. The current housing mess is creating net-negative wealth and the subsequent psychology will unfold in 2008.

The amount (%) and the type of paper the Fed has taken in trade of cold hard cash scares the begeezzes out of me.

The credit cycle is done but I have not seen the unwind of leveraged positions. Kinda like air hockey – the pucks floats as long as everybody plays.

I am anxious to see the Q4 and Q1(08)balance sheets for the financials. My gut is telling me a few folks will be tippy.

The current thinking is that all will be well in the US because of the health of the rest of the world. I find this perverse. India’s growth was/is fueled by EU and US demand. China’s growth was/is fueled by EU, UK, and US demand.

Since I am now 93% cash at the moment (the first time since 1986) I dont really care where the DOW might be as 2008 closes but I would be interested in a few things at 9600ish.

Enjoy your writing.

By: scorpio

scorpio — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:13:43 +0000

nice work, Barry. amazed CNBC let you deliver. every money manager/prognosticator should have last year’s predictions/results pinned to their chests as they spout off. i too think 1250 the linchpin, perhaps not the pivot. the economy looking like 2002 but we’re still up 90% from the lows. market has to get serious here and start putting in some serious declines. while it may rally again from that 50% retracement, i think the FRB will get serious after the election and raise rates to slow this global inflation they unleashed. then down again.