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	<title>Comments on: Read it here first: Fed Responding to Stocks?</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: Mich</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73280</link>
		<dc:creator>Mich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Jan 2008 02:36:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73280</guid>
		<description>When everybody is waiting for Fed to raise interest rates by 75 points (%76 expectation, and the remaining 24% expects 50pts), wouldn&#039;t you expect that if they do cut it, the markets go down (already baked into the prices), and if they don&#039;t, DJIA gives back that 600 points in one day, and probably another 400 during the week to close net 1000points?

I can&#039;t see why, but still, if for some reason, markets do go up on Monday, I will be buying more puts.

If it goes up again after the Fed cuts rates, I will be buying some more than giving it a week to see how it all goes.

Next week WILL be very interesting indeed.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When everybody is waiting for Fed to raise interest rates by 75 points (%76 expectation, and the remaining 24% expects 50pts), wouldn&#8217;t you expect that if they do cut it, the markets go down (already baked into the prices), and if they don&#8217;t, DJIA gives back that 600 points in one day, and probably another 400 during the week to close net 1000points?</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t see why, but still, if for some reason, markets do go up on Monday, I will be buying more puts.</p>
<p>If it goes up again after the Fed cuts rates, I will be buying some more than giving it a week to see how it all goes.</p>
<p>Next week WILL be very interesting indeed.</p>
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		<title>By: PFT</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73279</link>
		<dc:creator>PFT</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 23:11:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73279</guid>
		<description>Since repeal of the Glass Steagall Act banks have much more exposure to speculative trading on stocks and the derivatives markets.  If Bernanke looks panicky, odds are he knows something you do not know, and you probably do not want to know it.  We could be looking at trillions in losses that are being hidden.  The derivative market is 500 trillion with transactions of 1.5 quadrillion yearly. That rogue trader is likely a cover for some global bankers who were trying to expose Bernankes hand.  He blinked.  The odd timing of the markets free fall with the opening of the World Economic Forum may be a clue.

Also, while 50% of the people may own stock, they dont own much compared to the top 1%.  And over 50% of the stocks being traded each day are not owned but are borrowed, with orders being sent from the Cayman Islands and other tax havens where the equivelant of 1/3 of global GDP is being hidden.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since repeal of the Glass Steagall Act banks have much more exposure to speculative trading on stocks and the derivatives markets.  If Bernanke looks panicky, odds are he knows something you do not know, and you probably do not want to know it.  We could be looking at trillions in losses that are being hidden.  The derivative market is 500 trillion with transactions of 1.5 quadrillion yearly. That rogue trader is likely a cover for some global bankers who were trying to expose Bernankes hand.  He blinked.  The odd timing of the markets free fall with the opening of the World Economic Forum may be a clue.</p>
<p>Also, while 50% of the people may own stock, they dont own much compared to the top 1%.  And over 50% of the stocks being traded each day are not owned but are borrowed, with orders being sent from the Cayman Islands and other tax havens where the equivelant of 1/3 of global GDP is being hidden.</p>
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		<title>By: JT</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73278</link>
		<dc:creator>JT</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 21:22:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73278</guid>
		<description>I wonder if FOMC &amp; Bernanke realize they are the Wall Street&#039;s bitches or do they really think they are smart?

I now have a new observation to follow.  Never trust a guy who works inside the beltway with armored black Suburban to really know what f*** is going on in the real world.  Hell, I could say there was no inflation too, if I lived in the incubator of stupidity called D.C.

I would love to be a fly on the wall as they sit and praise themselves on jobs well done.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder if FOMC &#038; Bernanke realize they are the Wall Street&#8217;s bitches or do they really think they are smart?</p>
<p>I now have a new observation to follow.  Never trust a guy who works inside the beltway with armored black Suburban to really know what f*** is going on in the real world.  Hell, I could say there was no inflation too, if I lived in the incubator of stupidity called D.C.</p>
<p>I would love to be a fly on the wall as they sit and praise themselves on jobs well done.</p>
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		<title>By: Koba</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73277</link>
		<dc:creator>Koba</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 21:12:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73277</guid>
		<description>The S&amp;P500 is off 20%, the Russell 2k is off 25%, and the Fed is allegedly wrong and jumping because of SocGen?  Give me a f-ing break.  So, in other words, if the market were down 50% and another Nick Leeson lost $5bil while the Fed&#039;s cutting rates, that would be wrong?

Jesus H. Christ....
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The S&#038;P500 is off 20%, the Russell 2k is off 25%, and the Fed is allegedly wrong and jumping because of SocGen?  Give me a f-ing break.  So, in other words, if the market were down 50% and another Nick Leeson lost $5bil while the Fed&#8217;s cutting rates, that would be wrong?</p>
<p>Jesus H. Christ&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: VJ</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73276</link>
		<dc:creator>VJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 19:41:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73276</guid>
		<description>getting older,

&quot;&lt;i&gt;Stock prices are and should be one among many pieces of data that the Fed looks at. Why? Because when 50% of the population holds stocks their performance cannot help but affect people&#039;s spending habits and thus the economy.&lt;/i&gt;&quot;

It&#039;s understandable why one could draw such a conclusion, but that statistic, although true, does not mean what people think it means.

That &quot;&lt;i&gt;50% of the population&lt;/i&gt;&quot; that &quot;&lt;i&gt;holds stocks&lt;/i&gt;&quot; has more value in the vehicles parked in their driveway than they do value in their stock portfolio. The vast overwhelming percentage of ownership of stock and bond securities remains with a tiny percentage of the wealthiest people and/or families.

An argument can be made that the increasing or decreasing value of the homes that 66% of population owns has more of a ramification on &quot;&lt;i&gt;people&#039;s spending habits and thus the economy&lt;/i&gt;&quot;, but certainly not stock ownership.
.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>getting older,</p>
<p>&#8220;<i>Stock prices are and should be one among many pieces of data that the Fed looks at. Why? Because when 50% of the population holds stocks their performance cannot help but affect people&#8217;s spending habits and thus the economy.</i>&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s understandable why one could draw such a conclusion, but that statistic, although true, does not mean what people think it means.</p>
<p>That &#8220;<i>50% of the population</i>&#8221; that &#8220;<i>holds stocks</i>&#8221; has more value in the vehicles parked in their driveway than they do value in their stock portfolio. The vast overwhelming percentage of ownership of stock and bond securities remains with a tiny percentage of the wealthiest people and/or families.</p>
<p>An argument can be made that the increasing or decreasing value of the homes that 66% of population owns has more of a ramification on &#8220;<i>people&#8217;s spending habits and thus the economy</i>&#8220;, but certainly not stock ownership.<br />
.</p>
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		<title>By: VJ</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73275</link>
		<dc:creator>VJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 19:33:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73275</guid>
		<description>&quot;&lt;i&gt;In other words, is the Fed too sensitive to falling equity prices?&lt;/i&gt;&quot;

It was obvious with the last rate cuts that Bernanke was a whore for Wall Street.
.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;<i>In other words, is the Fed too sensitive to falling equity prices?</i>&#8221;</p>
<p>It was obvious with the last rate cuts that Bernanke was a whore for Wall Street.<br />
.</p>
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		<title>By: ef</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73274</link>
		<dc:creator>ef</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 18:50:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73274</guid>
		<description>From Grant&#039;s Interest Rate Observer:

&lt;p&gt;&quot;The meek will inherit the earth, but not on the Fed&#039;s watch. Monetary policy in the United States is an instrument of
subsidy as well as of macroeconomic management, and the subsidized class seems always to be the feckless one. When risk is
mismanaged, or speculation fails, or the bottom drops out of the S&amp;P 500, it&#039;s the savers who take a pay cut. . . .&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Is the Fed too sensitive to falling equity prices? Yes.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The stock market is not the economy, and it is frightening that in the last 10 or 20 years it has been given that status of be all, end all. The Feds actions are only decreasing confidence. And rating agencies, &quot;ha&quot;. This is the same period of time that traditional pensions started being replaced with defined contributions, along with a lot of other financial inventions/derivatives. WS got it hands on a lot of money.  Is WS the only thing that matters in our economy?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Wasn&#039;t it at one time, that a company could raise money through equity or issue bonds. That&#039;s why companies went public, to raise money. Although today, they don&#039;t have to because of the large growth in private equity and foreign buyers. But in those days (i.e., 2 decades ago maybe), the company actually made something or provided a valuable/needed service. And the investors received a nice dividend, and in the long-term, because the company was successful (and inflation) the stock price appreciated. It treated it workers nicely, as it did the community and customers, had a strong and ethical board, and solid business practices. The focus today seems more on the stock, and less on the company and the economy. And the fed keeps proving that time after time. Are we measuring the right things for a strong, solid, healthy, sustainable economy for the majority.&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Grant&#8217;s Interest Rate Observer:</p>
<p>&#8220;The meek will inherit the earth, but not on the Fed&#8217;s watch. Monetary policy in the United States is an instrument of<br />
subsidy as well as of macroeconomic management, and the subsidized class seems always to be the feckless one. When risk is<br />
mismanaged, or speculation fails, or the bottom drops out of the S&#038;P 500, it&#8217;s the savers who take a pay cut. . . .&#8221;</p>
<p>Is the Fed too sensitive to falling equity prices? Yes.</p>
<p>The stock market is not the economy, and it is frightening that in the last 10 or 20 years it has been given that status of be all, end all. The Feds actions are only decreasing confidence. And rating agencies, &#8220;ha&#8221;. This is the same period of time that traditional pensions started being replaced with defined contributions, along with a lot of other financial inventions/derivatives. WS got it hands on a lot of money.  Is WS the only thing that matters in our economy?</p>
<p>Wasn&#8217;t it at one time, that a company could raise money through equity or issue bonds. That&#8217;s why companies went public, to raise money. Although today, they don&#8217;t have to because of the large growth in private equity and foreign buyers. But in those days (i.e., 2 decades ago maybe), the company actually made something or provided a valuable/needed service. And the investors received a nice dividend, and in the long-term, because the company was successful (and inflation) the stock price appreciated. It treated it workers nicely, as it did the community and customers, had a strong and ethical board, and solid business practices. The focus today seems more on the stock, and less on the company and the economy. And the fed keeps proving that time after time. Are we measuring the right things for a strong, solid, healthy, sustainable economy for the majority.</p>
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		<title>By: mw</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73273</link>
		<dc:creator>mw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 17:06:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73273</guid>
		<description>Imagine a future situation like the current one, a massive rate cut on a &quot;massive stock sell off&quot;. But wait.. one problem.. rates have already  &quot;Ben-Slashed&quot; (sorry) to 1/2% (think Japan) The &quot;Gun&quot; is empty or near so. Ben will go from &quot;Go ahead--make my day&quot; to &quot;HELP&quot;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Imagine a future situation like the current one, a massive rate cut on a &#8220;massive stock sell off&#8221;. But wait.. one problem.. rates have already  &#8220;Ben-Slashed&#8221; (sorry) to 1/2% (think Japan) The &#8220;Gun&#8221; is empty or near so. Ben will go from &#8220;Go ahead&#8211;make my day&#8221; to &#8220;HELP&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Pat Gorup</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73272</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat Gorup</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 17:02:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73272</guid>
		<description>I believe the FED does have a &quot;perception&quot; problem. Policy seems to be based on what is happening with stocks and what the markets expect.  If they want to dispel this &quot;illusion&quot; they have a perfect opportunity next week.  Don&#039;t cut at all.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I believe the FED does have a &#8220;perception&#8221; problem. Policy seems to be based on what is happening with stocks and what the markets expect.  If they want to dispel this &#8220;illusion&#8221; they have a perfect opportunity next week.  Don&#8217;t cut at all.</p>
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		<title>By: JGFY</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/01/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/comment-page-2/#comment-73271</link>
		<dc:creator>JGFY</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 16:56:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/01/25/read-it-here-first-fed-responding-to-stocks/#comment-73271</guid>
		<description>Barry - I think we&#039;re being too hard on the former CEO of the Princeton Economic Department.  Who among us wouldn&#039;t throw moral hazard to the wind if they could take some action at work that would backstop their 401k retirement account, or ensure a cushy post-FOMC job @ some heggie?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barry &#8211; I think we&#8217;re being too hard on the former CEO of the Princeton Economic Department.  Who among us wouldn&#8217;t throw moral hazard to the wind if they could take some action at work that would backstop their 401k retirement account, or ensure a cushy post-FOMC job @ some heggie?</p>
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