Hotpads Foreclosure Heat Map
April 9, 2008 11:45am by Barry Ritholtz
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I didn’t have the heart to do Southern California, Las Vegas or South Miami . . . )
Barry, you are on a roll today. Thanks for bringing some lighter moments to such an ugly picture. (Pun intended :>)!)
OT:
The delusion known as Minyanville continues…apparently allowing hedge funds to borrow money to prop up L3 assets from the very same bank.. is a good thing…according to A. Jeffrey.
But do not disagree with anything the author says (like his insistence that the assets “were cheap”) or your comment gets deleted.
Ever since they “aligned” with the FBN negativity is not allowed.
nothing like value relative to what is ever discussed on that site….
Ciao
MS
Wow – I’m struck by the foreclosure rates in outer suburbs of NYC. Large swaths of Suffolk County are pink. Putnam County, where the folks who can’t afford Westchester go, is also red/pink. So these were relatively “affordable” homes and apparently people still couldn’t afford them.
Fascinating map.
I’d double check some of this. I was mousing around and got homes listed in FL and NC while I was looking at Suffolk County NY. If the data can be more accurate, it’s a cool app.
That’s a very cool website! Thanks for the link.
Home values are falling on the outskirts first, and if the value drops you can’t refi your way out of trouble. Not so shocking.
Pretty maps but highly, highly suspect data. Please drill down into any of the listed properties and you will find old, outdated, or just plain wrong data. I live in San Francisco. There was a house listed for sale down the block from me. The link to the agent’s site did not list the property, the MLS does not list the property and the house is currently occupied with no signage out front. I checked three or four other listings and found similar problems.
Those problems were discovered in the “for sale” tab and not the foreclosure tab, which is event worse. The data source for foreclosures is based on RealtyTrac data, which is total crap. NOD properties for $75,000 in San Francisco! Yeah, right. Let me know as soon as that one hits the market…
Pretty graphs but I thought this was The Big Picture? I thought we were supposed to scoff at crap data and crap analysis? :)
Michael, I live in Silicon Valley, and the same pattern holds that you describe for New York. It’s the more “affordable” areas that are having the worse problem. San Jose Central and East. Hayward/Fremont. East Palo Alto. Los Altos Hills is doing great though.
Oh, and the map is mislabeled. That’s not Burbank, it’s Santa Clara. Burbank is in Southern California.
on the subject of real estate, orange county (CA) property tax collections (due thursday) are $91 million behind.
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/08/property-tax-due-thursday-collections-91-million-behind/
and “major O.C. business expansions down 10.1%”
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/
MS – refer to our dialogue regarding distressed the other day. Blackstone et. al. are putting in fresh equity regardless and getting financing from C but the point is they are assuming the first loss risk for the loans. you will see more of this as the banks crawl back. oh yeah, i’d also point out that these assets are being priced at 90 cents on the dollar. does this qualify as a market price in your dark gloomy corner? or does that conflict with your everything is sheet mentality? chow.
MS – refer to our dialogue regarding distressed the other day. Blackstone et. al. are putting in fresh equity regardless and getting financing from C but the point is they are assuming the first loss risk for the loans. you will see more of this as the banks crawl back. oh yeah, i’d also point out that these assets are being priced at 90 cents on the dollar. does this qualify as a market price in your dark gloomy corner? or does that conflict with your everything is sheet mentality? chow.
For the record, there is a place called “South Miami”, but it’s not in especially bad shape compared to other areas of Miami. It would be better to just say Miami. We’ll get the point.
That first Hotpad map image posted actually isn’t San Francisco, it’s really San Jose or Silicon Valley. There’s actually an area within San Jose that’s called Burbank, and it’s quite close to Santa Clara.
Fred-
Unloading piles of shit to themselves at that mark is not surprising…..wouldn’t you mark those at an attractive rate as well????
See GS marking of similar crap from chrysler as a bit more realistic.
But you don’t seem to deal with that rather well.
Ciao
MS
BTW
The Fed is also sponsoring that first loss risk for the loans via it’s own coffers so risk is certainly relative in this case or may be you didn’t catch the part where it is also loaning to the buyers. That should indicate something to you…..
Ciao
MS
Ciao
MS
Jay G.,
You must be new to Silicon Valley ;-) There is a Burbank here. It has its own school district and is right where they say it is, just north of 280 and just east of 880. It is just very small and mostly anonymous, perhaps even part of San Jose?
Anon @ 2:55,
That 75k is just a HELOC or second mortgage. It is still a default, you just aren’t seeing the primary mortgage in default so you are seeing a small amount.
Very interesting map. However, as others have noted, the data is *very* suspicious.
I looked at some of the foreclosures in Upper Manhattan, an area I have some passing familiarity with. As an example, there is a studio listed at $800K on 170th St. This is a sketchy area (improved over recent years, but still sketchy), and nobody purchases a studio there for more than $140K.
Similar results are shown in the Bronx: extremely high prices for studios in sketchy areas.
I suspect that the foreclosures represent something less savory than a simple home purchase gone bad.
MS – funny. you just skirt the issue which is whether or not these sales constitute a market price? the Fed always backstops the financial system so what’s new? chow.
Sales at a real market price do not have the seller lending money to the buyer and then letting the seller fix the price since they “assume first loss”….on what??? A fixed price? Same problem as before…marking to fantasy.
That’s not a real transaction when the price is fixed from the start. It is an engineered transaction designed to look like it was at a real mark.
You are, without question, an amateur if you fail to see that.
Ciao
MS
When you drill down into the Burbank label on the map, it states that Burbank is a Los Angeles City. The map is mixing regions.
MS – really? is that all you got? who are you the Dark Angel of Moving Definition? a sale is a sale Mr. Schmuchacher. of course it’s structured to compensate C for the write down. of course they lend the money since buyers are unwilling to assume all of the risk. so what? it still got done. point is if you want to stick to a position because you believe it to be true, fine, but don’t run around redefining ‘market price’ just because you want to be right all of the time. gotta love a perma-gloom bored (sic.) poster who wants to fight a rising tide. chow (which is what you are positioned to be in this market).
Fred-
You are dreaming if you think that is a real mark. They sure fooled you though.
See it for what it truly is: offloading of liability at yet another fantasy mark.
Or I suppose GS L3 assets (what a crock!!) is larger than it’s market cap is also a good thing as well.
Go back to fantasyland….you’re much better at interpreting crap deals since you prove you can’t see the forest through the trees.
Ciao
MS
Fred-
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/ponzi-financing-at-citigroup.html
But don’t let any truth get in the way of a good story about the “distressed debt market opening up”.
All you have is a deal that was put together to make it appear that it was for .90 when it most certainly is not.
You are an amateur…..
Ciao
MS
Mr. Schmuchacher – your own little thread puts a max downside risk of 70 cents on the dollar for C. sure smells like a distressed sale to me when you’ve got performing short term LBO debt underlying. the buyers are stepping into the role of having to find an exit for these loans or sit on them. seems perfectly reasonable that in the event they can’t sell or restructure them, they get an opportunistic yield – what part of that do you think i don’t get about distressed? btw, i seriously doubt that you’ve got the kind of distressed experience of which you boast otherwise you would be focused on doing deals and seeing it from the buyers point of view. who cares about C? dead money with the big banks. all i care about is that there is a market, and that’s a settled issue. it’s nice to know it’s this easy to get under your skin – you are like that lonely guy buying everyone a round so they will listen to your worthless dribble. chow! time for lunch!
Fred-
Putting together deals just so it “appears” there is a market for them is what is going on here.
Nothing more or less.
Google two words: arbitrage and debt.
then figure out who really has the “risk”.
You are an amateur.
Ciao
MS