In the beginning of June, I noted that Lehman Brothers (LEH) was reiterating a sell signal on the Fusion IQ ranking system. So too was CIT Group (CIT).

Lehman closed at $19.81, and is now at an eight year low on "Take-under" speculation.  CIT is $6.81, about 32% below the June 3rd call.

At the time, we put a $20 price target on Lehman, and warned against owning CIT. LEH is since down 41.4+%; CIT is down 28.77%.

Leh_1981

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I rarely use the blog to promote our Quant tool, but damn, if you missed this one, you left a lot of money on the table. I am reiterating these two calls because they were such jumbo winners — 30% in less than a month. If you haven’t tried the tool you are missing out on an enormous moneymaker.

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Category: Quantitative, Short Selling, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

22 Responses to “Lehman Brothers $20 Price Target Complete”

  1. Jonathan says:

    Someone likes Google Finance!

  2. Mike in Nola says:

    BR:

    Does this mean you have closed your positions?

    I’m mostly looking for justification for having sold my SKF :)

  3. MM says:

    What about DV?

  4. Mike in Nola says:

    Anything going on behind the scenes at LEH?

    Dealbreaker.com reported “We received cloak and dagger emails from a few of you about “something happening at Lehman.””

    Later: “I don’t know how many of you had signed up to hear Erin Callan’s “insights on both the mitigation of risk during volatile market conditions as well as the outlook for Lehman and the industry” tonight at 6:15 but FYI, the event has been cancelled.”

    And someone else pointed out that the stock was down almost 11% today.

    All just coincidences?

  5. Jay says:

    Just wait till the VIX hits 29 on a Friday. LEH will be gone the following Monday, courtesy of Uncle Ben.

  6. Josh says:

    Looks like you really hit the mark on these; kudos!

    I am curious though about your overall results: how many right did your Quant tool get compared to those it got wrong over the same period?

    Getting some right is great except if you got the majority wrong. Just being skeptical about quant in general, not trying to be dickish.

  7. ferox says:

    “Getting some right is great except if you got the majority wrong.”

    Disagree.

    Magnitude matters. I’d rather be right once for a stupidly huge gain and wrong over and over for very small losses than the reverse.

    What’s the final + / – in $ terms is what I want to know. To hell with frequency alone.

  8. jhunt says:

    ferox: you make a good point but only if you have the discipline to cut your losses quickly. too many human money managers ‘buy on the dip,’ ‘wait out there losses’ etc.

    that said, if youre good enough to have the system, one hopes you are good enough to execute it correctly.

    BR: congrats on the calls. fusion is in a whole new space and doing fairly well from what you tell us.

  9. Dervin says:

    Hi Barry, two things…
    1) Your ssl certificate is causing firefox 3.0 to freak out – the certificate doesn’t match up with your domain name.

    2) Can I have a discout code.

    3) I’ve got about 15K of cash and I just don’t know what to do with it. Would this help me make a decision with the money?

  10. Steve Barry says:

    Barry,

    You got me interested…give me a better picture of the performance of all your picks, in addition to those big winners!

  11. Simon says:

    I’m looking for some research. How much is the subscription?

  12. Dan Ruck says:

    What is the quant tool and how can I get it? Thanks!

  13. techy says:

    only if life was so simple…

    use a tool and make 15%/year on your capital.

    if it can be true please let me know…i can pay 100s of dollar in subscription.

    btw congrats for those calls barry…..but if they would have gone wrong and i would have bet my money…you would have just said sorry…(that idiot cramer does not even say that, he makes up a story and pretends there was a confusion)

  14. rich_lather says:

    If anything, the pile on will be a great study in Soros’s reflexology.

  15. BobC says:

    I have this theory about quantitative methods. The more people that know about them the less effective they are. Surely somebody has done some academic work on this. Basically the more people that observe the system with the same tool the more the cumulative actions perturb the system away from the expected results.

    But what do I know.

  16. Will says:

    Give us one more prediction for the next 30 days :)

  17. CaptiousNut says:

    BR,

    Let’s not make too much about *what happened after you covered your short*. Of course if the stock had bounced from the low 30s-high 20s (where you covered?) you could be advertising your *insight* or whatever indicator you based that trade on.

    For the record, I was short at $47 and covered at $37. As far as I am concerned, my “buy” was a much better sell signal than any of that quant voodoo you’re peddling!

  18. rich_lather says:

    @BobC: in so many words

  19. CDizzle says:

    Looks like the market has people lining up for a freebie.

    Barry posts several suggestions/month on the Fusion IQ blog. I’ve climbed on for a few with mixed results.

    Most of the gallery was skeptical on Barry’s LEH/CIT targets at the time, as I recall.

    It’s Barry’s blog…it’s not like anyone else is going to throw up a post about his sell calls going donkey.

  20. BR:
    It’s your blog. You have a right to pimp your own products/research. I bet CNBC is jealous. ;-)

  21. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Folks wanting to know about BR’s quant system: Click on the “FusionIQ” icon at the top-left of this blog and you will jump to it.

  22. Josh says:

    @ferox: of course magnitude matters and if all the other losses are small and you hit a big one, then yippi!!! However, the amount you can make is not up to a tool but your decision on how much to double down.

    My point was that a quant tool that promises to deliver consistent results needs to demonstrate that. I doubt BR had this built to be a 1:1,000,000 tool…that’s just as good us dumb luck!