Just a
frame of reference here, the intraday low in the DJIA today 11, 574.24 is below the prior lows set on January 22nd was 11,635.
Interestingly, the S&P500 remains above its 2008 lows — and the Nasdaq remains appreciably above the YTD lows.
New 2008 Lows For Dow — But Not SPX or NDX
Tells you exactly where the Fed money is going to.
Wonder why the NAS was up almost 33 points yesterday before RIMM crapped the bed??
CBOE traders need to be taken out and shot. Criminal activity on the Financial sector today.
Ciao
MS
Gosh, and to think today is based on a surge in oil and disappointing earnings/guidance. Seems the credit crisis news is getting the day off. But Goldman just put Citigroup on the “conviction sell” list, so perhaps it’s only a matter of time until the next credit crisis wave hits and Citi goes to single digits. I bet Larry Kudlow will blame Obama leading in the polls for that selloff…
Don’t worry, it’s just a matter of 2 or 3 days before the SPX breaks its March low. Expect the market to crash next week. Trust me.
Shows that the Dow is less of an indicator of the “total market” than those other indices. Personally I think it should be ignored most of the time. Only 30 names???
Well its started raining so here I am..
Has anyone else followed the DCR/UCR saga?
It’s all ending today and I am trying to figure out what that says about crude oil here. I feel its significant but can’t put my finger on it…
Barry: The day is not over yet.
(still laughing at the fake Colbert on notice generator…)
looks like the market thinks the Nasdaq, being tech, is less sensitive to US weak economy and more driven by exports? I think it might stay a bit stronger than the Dow, but can’t go the other way…
Quick! Add more oil stocks to the DOW!
LOL.
Anyone who followed Dick Bove’s March 20th call of the once in a lifetime bottom is no where.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/financial-crisis-over-buy-banks/story.aspx?guid=%7BB419EAC3-D3DB-4D20-B1FA-903FF86D35B0%7D&dist=hplatest
Citigroup is no 17.71, his call was when Citigroup was 17.80.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c
Another bottom caller, stricken.
Alot of people are eating crow today after some famous, bottom is in for the DOW calls a few months earlier, particularly made publicly on certain shows on CNBC. So many fail to grasp the depth and scope of the deterioration in credit markets and inside the banks. Once you understand that the elite of the financial establishment are lying like dogs, it comes clear. Sounds so familiar listening to them, just like when the Nasdaq had fallen to 3,500 from its peak…bottom is in, bottom is in.. Motivated out of their own personal interest, their “public” prognostications were wrong then and they’re wrong now. Gold and the DOW will near 1:2 before this is over.
venndata-
the are only nowhere if they didn’t sell on the ride back up to 25…….they thoroughly deserve it if they put the blinders on with him.
Those stocks are not investments as he touts, they are strictly a trading vehicle.
Ciao
MS
The Russell 2000 has been in a bear market for the last 11 months.
At the bear market low in December 1974, GM never got below $14.60. Today GM is trading at $11.50.
Time for the Dow Jones people to get rid of this dog.
MS,
Who would have thought that the classic bluechip stock GM, would only be a ‘trading vehicle’ rather than an ‘investment?’
If you bought GM stock in 1955 and sold it today, congratulations, you just broke even (not of course counting the 70% – 80% loss in value due to inflation).
– Be Bullish
– Think long-term
– It is just too late to sell
– Trust me. Perhaps?
We’re now into the fourth inning of the great game of credit failure. The recognition that this is not going to be easy or fast is becoming widespread. There will be fewer suckers to rescue the financials. The game plan now is wait for those who are going to fail to fail, and pick the treasure from the trash at the auction.
According to Yahoo! Finance the intraday low was 11,508.74 on Jan. 22.
Perhaps Yahoo’s stock data is not 100% accurate, but their historical data feed shows that on January 22, the Dow had an intraday low of 11,508.74 intraday high of 12,167.42 with a close of 11,971.19.
So if those numbers are accurate we still have a few points before we make a new intraday low.
Yahoo intra-day lows are wrong.. they calculate it by looking at the low of each stock in the index that day and backing out a low… thus exaggerating it. Its a really poor method that is very annoying if your trying to backtest trading rules.
That’s good to know. Why on earth do they do that? They can’t just track the data for the index?
Interesting thing today is that a weak dollar is not helping stocks, as it sometimes does (e.g., boosts multinational earnings).
Coming the day after Ben’s “all bark, no bite” Fed meeting, the harsh selling represents a massive vote of no confidence in the Federal Reserve.
Of course, since they have no shame, you need not worry about Fed guvnors plunging from the upper floors of the Eccles Building. The sidewalks are safe, even if your money isn’t.
A couple of thoughts surrounding today’s action:
—-
TOPIC #1 Price of Oil
The comments below were in an Yahoo Finance article quoting an OPEC Chief about the price of oil:
“….I think that the devaluation of the dollar against the euro, if everything goes as I think it will, will be of the order of perhaps 1-2 percent and this will probably generate an $8 rise in the price of oil,” he said.
The head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said it had been clearly established that speculation was affecting markets.”
—-
Well, I’m sure glad that one is finally out in the open. Everyone should now finally understand that the weakness of the US Dollar is a fundamental consideration for the price of oil just like its supply and demand.
In other words, you got to pay for the stuff and when the money goes into their pocket, they are looking for a specific amount, PERIOD. They don’t want to be bothered with our (currency) problems, just show me the (desired amount after translation/conversion) money.
Topic #2 (Potential down draft in the markets)
The 2nd thing that I am thinking is that we are now near the level set in Jan/March lows in the markets. The markets probably won’t have to go too much lower before the margin calls start-up again and that could get ugly in a hurry.
I’m sure all of the members of the PPT have already been notified to be available for a Conference Call this afternoon if necessary and that all parties are expected to be available until further notice.
TOPIC 3: What’s the Fed going to do NOW?
Well, I’m sure there is no one on this planet who has not heard that the Fed cutting is over and that we should expect a slight (token) increase in rates to support the US Dollar and try to slow down the rise in inflation. Right?
Well, what is the Fed going to do if the bottom falls out of the market in the meantime?
I’ll tell you what they have done since 1982, they have ALWAYS cut interest rates until the market calmed down. Since we only have 2.00% of cutting potential left, do you think they will be cutting in here?
If the market burns and the Fed does NOT cut, it will be the 1st time in 25 years!
Damn, these are interesting times we live in!! Everyday is a new adventure.
Source:
Title: OPEC Chief Sees $150-170 Oil in Coming Months
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080626/25386960.html
I can’t imagine too many rosy earnings reports coming up in July, so I expect we’re going to see another leg down through October in which the NAS and S&P will be significantly lower. I keep sitting in cash, waiting for a low that feels more like capitulation that what we’ve seen so far. I personally can’t understand the love affair with “tech”. Aside from personal devices like Blackberriers, etc, where is the innovation? Most of what is going on in tech is evolutionary, which should not command premium valuations.
Ok…here’s what we need to do. Immediately remove GM, C, JPM, BAC and AIG from the Dow. Put in GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, and BIDU. Then have Cramer go on the air and tout the new Five Horseman. Then on a quiet Friday, when traders are in the Hamptons, emergency 50bp cut.
DL and Poolshark,
Do you think GM will come out the other side still intact? If so, don’t you think picking up the stock around $10 would be one hellva of buy? I mean this thing has fell from what $85 or $90, hasn’t it?
On down the line a few weeks or months when they start consolidating and cutting their dividend, it will probably get down there.
Man, you talk about wealth destruction, GM is getting right down there with Lucent and some others I won’t depress you with.
Ever think you would hear something like…”fresh 53 year low on GM”???
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
GM Head on collision
In thinking about the yahoo historical stats, if they do calculate it as you say, its hard to believe that this would result in an error of 130 points on a day that has a 650 point swing. Thats a 20% error. It seems reasonable that on a day like that the intraday low would be fairly close to the individual low for most of the stocks in the DOW.
It does not seem reasonable to me that this would result in a calculation error of more than a few percent. Does anyone have a source of historical data that shows the 11,635 low that was listed as the previous intraday low for January 22?
GM will be cut up into pieces and sold off like a slaughtered cow.
But not before Chrysler.
Just watching the two of them compete to the bigger cash furnace is getting old for me and i have no skin in the game…imagine how their bankrollers’ feel.
I believe the difference is one feed adjusts for corporate actions and the other feed does not.
Redocean,
Don’t ask me why they use such a spazzy way of calculating.. but google it and you’ll find the same discussions i did when i was wondering why the lows didn’t match up to the ones I had seen during the day.
The error may seem large… but it is correct… 11635 was the low as quoted by Baz.
S
Hi,
I sometimes wonder about the numbers on Yahoo Finance myself. Wish I had a Bloomberg terminal :)
Here are the numbers on the Dow for January 22 from Google Finance (it says the low was 11,634.82).
And if you go to the Dow chart at Bloomberg.com, the chart cursor will show the same figures.
Cheers.
a) I believe the difference is that yahoo adjusts the numbers for dividends
b) it doesn’t matter anyway – 11,508 got taken out a minute ago
This is great. Stock market crashes the day after Bernanke & Co. said things are going to be OK….
When I heard the statement yday, it became immediately clear that our Federal Reserve is either clueless or lying to the public. They were laid bare yesterday and the market is now voting on its confidence in Bernanke & Co.
– AT
Andy, they also said it was contained too, i.e. to sub-prime, LAST summer. Zero credibility they have.
Reason SPX and NDX have not hit 08 lows is cap weighted nature of index. Financials have fallen out of top spot at highest % in SPX. Overtaken now by Tech then Energy which on a relative basis are outperforming. DJIA is not cap weighted so crappy performance in financials having more of an impact.
But wait….Dennis Kneale was still reassuring me today that everything’s just fine, it’s all an overreaction, there is no recession and if I haven’t sold to lock in losses I haven’t lost any money !!! Life is just so great when you don’t sell !!
There’s something to be said for consistency even if it’s consistently wrong. What exactly, I’m not sure.
I wonder if Dennis Kneale ever feels guilty about all the bad advice he’s proffered to naive investors, if there’s any of those left?
A lot of hyperventilating going on, but it was only a 3% drop. To match the 87 crash it would have to drop over 2000 points. Now THAT would be painful. DOW below 9000 tomorrow? Nah. Not likely.
We are looking at just shy of 20% of the 2006 high. Another 10% and I’m gong to start looking for the real bottom.
GM, I don’t see how it can survive as a going concern. It requires steady access to credit markets and this isn’t looking like a good week for that.
I suspect a pre-packaged bankruptcy of some kind where they do a WorldCom and burn the bondholders.
The thing about GM is their huge network of suppliers and dealers. A lot of ghost towns get made in a GM or F bankruptcy. Politically, I don’t think you can take a bailout off the table.
NewGMCo coming out the other end of bankruptcy would be a call option on the success of the Volt. Maybe worth a speculative shot.
Aw, crappity, I meant to post that in the GM thread. Sorry.
I don’t understand why people think the markets can “only” fall by x% from its highs. The current valuations are still not worthy when one considers economic realities.
One day in the future people are going to look back at the news and stock markets of 2008 and say “wow,that market was the easiest short if there ever was one”
from bloomberg:
…Cleveland-based head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank, which oversees about $30 billion. “The write-offs have been far worse than anyone would have imagined.”
This kind of “worse than anyone can imagine” talk is my pet peeve. There were dozens of blogs, investment houses, people kept on saying “this is not over yet, not by a long shot” and they refuse to listen, then it bites them in the ass and they go “who would have thought”!!!!
incompetency everywhere…
following on this: Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | Jun 26, 2008 8:54:38 PM
peep looking to bottom pick, at this juncture, should, to simplify, cut out the middleman and donate blood, directly, to the Red Cross..