The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Macro Notes

Inflation in China in Feb rose more than expected as CPI was up 2.7% y/o/y vs the consensus gain of 2.5%. It is the fastest gain since Oct '08. Combining this with Feb loan growth 100b yuan above forecasts at 700b and expectations are rising that the PBOC will soon raise interest rates. The recent underperformance in the CRB index relative to the S&P rally is partially explained by this belief. Retail sales and IP ytd growth rates were about in line with forecasts. Asian stocks were mixed in response to the data but global bond markets are trading lower...