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	<title>Comments on: Who is Right: Professionals or the Populace ?</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-94474</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:43:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-94474</guid>
		<description>The Bureau of Labor Statistics bases the CPI&#039;s basket of goods on the average household. If lower income people spend more of the earnings on the part of the basket that is rising dramatically, then their CPI is much higher than the average family.

To get a more accurate picture of real CPI, you would be better off with 5 CPI&#039;s, each one representing the basket of goods that each income quintile group consumes.

This would likely show that the lower income groups are experiencing very high inflation, while the top earning groups inflation is relatively modest.

In my opinion, I feel that the loss in purchasing power that poor people are experiencing today is the result of government handouts.

If it is true in life that there are no free lunches, then what is given with one hand, is taken away with the other. In this case, the increase in domestic spending since George Bush has come into
office has gone disproportionately to lower income families.

As a result, they have ended up paying for these programs with punishing inflation, and a loss in living standards.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics bases the CPI&#8217;s basket of goods on the average household. If lower income people spend more of the earnings on the part of the basket that is rising dramatically, then their CPI is much higher than the average family.</p>
<p>To get a more accurate picture of real CPI, you would be better off with 5 CPI&#8217;s, each one representing the basket of goods that each income quintile group consumes.</p>
<p>This would likely show that the lower income groups are experiencing very high inflation, while the top earning groups inflation is relatively modest.</p>
<p>In my opinion, I feel that the loss in purchasing power that poor people are experiencing today is the result of government handouts.</p>
<p>If it is true in life that there are no free lunches, then what is given with one hand, is taken away with the other. In this case, the increase in domestic spending since George Bush has come into<br />
office has gone disproportionately to lower income families.</p>
<p>As a result, they have ended up paying for these programs with punishing inflation, and a loss in living standards.</p>
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		<title>By: Aaron</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93326</link>
		<dc:creator>Aaron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 08:50:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93326</guid>
		<description>&quot;BR: It didn&#039;t rise unexpectadly, you silly kiiiinniget -- it contracted less than expected: &quot;

Sorry about that but I was just quoting what I heard on Bloomberg and I know how much everyone here loves Bloomberg with the fancy brit accents and all.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;BR: It didn&#8217;t rise unexpectadly, you silly kiiiinniget &#8212; it contracted less than expected: &#8221;</p>
<p>Sorry about that but I was just quoting what I heard on Bloomberg and I know how much everyone here loves Bloomberg with the fancy brit accents and all.</p>
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		<title>By: cm</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93325</link>
		<dc:creator>cm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 07:25:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93325</guid>
		<description>bluestatedon: You are probably talking about the economist/pundit class in general, but in the specific cases of DeLong/Krugman, I think they are both not exactly living in the stratosphere, and while it is probably fair to assume that the circles in whom they move and with whom they associate tend to be biased to the upside, I think they are not insulated from the service sector, and service sector workers, neither in their business nor their private life.

I think mostly nobody (in the &quot;Western world&quot;) who isn&#039;t independently wealthy, or a member of a really thin upper crust of professionals (e.g. corporate executives), is insulated. It&#039;s more a matter of whether one is paying attention to what one readily sees &quot;out there&quot;.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>bluestatedon: You are probably talking about the economist/pundit class in general, but in the specific cases of DeLong/Krugman, I think they are both not exactly living in the stratosphere, and while it is probably fair to assume that the circles in whom they move and with whom they associate tend to be biased to the upside, I think they are not insulated from the service sector, and service sector workers, neither in their business nor their private life.</p>
<p>I think mostly nobody (in the &#8220;Western world&#8221;) who isn&#8217;t independently wealthy, or a member of a really thin upper crust of professionals (e.g. corporate executives), is insulated. It&#8217;s more a matter of whether one is paying attention to what one readily sees &#8220;out there&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: constantnormal</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93324</link>
		<dc:creator>constantnormal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:56:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93324</guid>
		<description>Uh, is it possible that the economist community is blinded by their training and jargon?  Confusing (or not confusing) monetary inflation (which seems to be relatively stable, at least according to M1 &amp; M2) with price inflation (driven by the bottom falling out of the trade deficit, from a policy of deficits out the wazoo and dollar destruction)?

I mean, it IS possible to have a stable money supply (and hence minimal monetary inflation) with rampant price inflation -- all that has to happen is to destroy the currency while expanding an already huge trade deficit.

However, if this were the case, it seems strange that the economist community would not point this out.  So I must be in ignorant error.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Uh, is it possible that the economist community is blinded by their training and jargon?  Confusing (or not confusing) monetary inflation (which seems to be relatively stable, at least according to M1 &#038; M2) with price inflation (driven by the bottom falling out of the trade deficit, from a policy of deficits out the wazoo and dollar destruction)?</p>
<p>I mean, it IS possible to have a stable money supply (and hence minimal monetary inflation) with rampant price inflation &#8212; all that has to happen is to destroy the currency while expanding an already huge trade deficit.</p>
<p>However, if this were the case, it seems strange that the economist community would not point this out.  So I must be in ignorant error.</p>
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		<title>By: flounder</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93323</link>
		<dc:creator>flounder</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 02:53:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93323</guid>
		<description>I read somewhere, thought it was here, that enough hours were cut at work collectively that it slashed something like 400 thousands of jobs (I may be wildly off here but I&#039;m pretty sure that is ballpark.
Now we have established that American workers get hosed on every &quot;benefit&quot; except working tons of hours. Now wouldn&#039;t cutting your workforce&#039;s hours by 10% keep the unemployment rate low but destroy consumer sentiment and effective wages, especially in sectors like construction that depend heavily on overtime?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I read somewhere, thought it was here, that enough hours were cut at work collectively that it slashed something like 400 thousands of jobs (I may be wildly off here but I&#8217;m pretty sure that is ballpark.<br />
Now we have established that American workers get hosed on every &#8220;benefit&#8221; except working tons of hours. Now wouldn&#8217;t cutting your workforce&#8217;s hours by 10% keep the unemployment rate low but destroy consumer sentiment and effective wages, especially in sectors like construction that depend heavily on overtime?</p>
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		<title>By: DaveinHackensack</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93322</link>
		<dc:creator>DaveinHackensack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:31:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93322</guid>
		<description>What effect (if any) has the deflation in home values had on the official inflation statistics? One other example of deflation I&#039;ve noticed: the prices of used cars (especially, but not exclusively SUVs) seem to be dropping fast. Of course, the drop in home values creates a negative wealth effect for current homeowners, and is of little help to prospective buyers who have trouble getting a mortgage due to tougher lending standards.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What effect (if any) has the deflation in home values had on the official inflation statistics? One other example of deflation I&#8217;ve noticed: the prices of used cars (especially, but not exclusively SUVs) seem to be dropping fast. Of course, the drop in home values creates a negative wealth effect for current homeowners, and is of little help to prospective buyers who have trouble getting a mortgage due to tougher lending standards.</p>
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		<title>By: Chinook</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93321</link>
		<dc:creator>Chinook</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 23:28:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93321</guid>
		<description>Mike in Nola:
Thanks, I&#039;ll put that book on my list for sure.

This priviledged class we call CEOs, especially in the financial sector, have demonstrated they have no special skill set.  With all their knowledge, education, computer models, risk analysis, and insane salaries, they couldn&#039;t steer a freight train down the tracks without going off the rails.

While the government is usually a convenient scape goat (and this administration is the definition of incompetent), the private sector, with their short term thinking (Hummers?) share at least half the blame for this entire mess.  Makes you wonder just how high of a pain threshold and tolerance level the American public has.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mike in Nola:<br />
Thanks, I&#8217;ll put that book on my list for sure.</p>
<p>This priviledged class we call CEOs, especially in the financial sector, have demonstrated they have no special skill set.  With all their knowledge, education, computer models, risk analysis, and insane salaries, they couldn&#8217;t steer a freight train down the tracks without going off the rails.</p>
<p>While the government is usually a convenient scape goat (and this administration is the definition of incompetent), the private sector, with their short term thinking (Hummers?) share at least half the blame for this entire mess.  Makes you wonder just how high of a pain threshold and tolerance level the American public has.</p>
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		<title>By: Simon</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93320</link>
		<dc:creator>Simon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 22:40:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93320</guid>
		<description>If you think about how things are relative to one another and not how they are relative to a previous event (such as the wage price spiral of the 70&#039;s) then the rising cost of goods relative to stagnant or decreasing wages is as bad or worse situation then the high inflation of the 70&#039;s.

At least WAGE/price inflation adjusts rapidly to the situation whereas without rising wages, rising costs destroy purchasing power slowly, destroys saving slowly, eases dept pain less rapidly, confuses the wage earner because hes not so sure about whats happening.

I call it the slow cooked frog principle.

Dump a frog in hot water and he&#039;ll jump out. Slowly raise the heat and he&#039;s stuperfied and won&#039;t be able to jump out when he finally realises whats happened.

It helps if you talk to the frog telling it that the waters still just the right temperature while you slowly turn the knob.

The frog is the wage earner.

The wage earner has been cooked by Goldilocks.

mmmmmmmmmm  that Goldilocks...
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you think about how things are relative to one another and not how they are relative to a previous event (such as the wage price spiral of the 70&#8242;s) then the rising cost of goods relative to stagnant or decreasing wages is as bad or worse situation then the high inflation of the 70&#8242;s.</p>
<p>At least WAGE/price inflation adjusts rapidly to the situation whereas without rising wages, rising costs destroy purchasing power slowly, destroys saving slowly, eases dept pain less rapidly, confuses the wage earner because hes not so sure about whats happening.</p>
<p>I call it the slow cooked frog principle.</p>
<p>Dump a frog in hot water and he&#8217;ll jump out. Slowly raise the heat and he&#8217;s stuperfied and won&#8217;t be able to jump out when he finally realises whats happened.</p>
<p>It helps if you talk to the frog telling it that the waters still just the right temperature while you slowly turn the knob.</p>
<p>The frog is the wage earner.</p>
<p>The wage earner has been cooked by Goldilocks.</p>
<p>mmmmmmmmmm  that Goldilocks&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Howard Veit</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93319</link>
		<dc:creator>Howard Veit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 21:18:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93319</guid>
		<description>Two points: the flaw in the data collection is not in the measurement of general inflation.  It is the fact that most people cannot afford (or don&#039;t use) more than a few things in the overall index.  So if I only buy the food and energy I get hit with that killer inflation only, and the portion of my income spent on those items may be as high as 90%, after which time I have no money.  It just follows that the people earning the least feel the most..there ain&#039;t too many diamond rings bought by window washers.

Point two: the illegals doing most of the construction and farm work around the country are invisible to data collection.  They aren&#039;t counted, can&#039;t be counted, and don&#039;t want to be counted.  I live in SoCal
and the construction projects still running have no workers all of a sudden.  They are manned by white and black guys working double shifts.

Not counting at least ten percent of the work force means faulty data.  If inflation was derived from separate income groups and what they can afford to buy we&#039;d have a hell of a number.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two points: the flaw in the data collection is not in the measurement of general inflation.  It is the fact that most people cannot afford (or don&#8217;t use) more than a few things in the overall index.  So if I only buy the food and energy I get hit with that killer inflation only, and the portion of my income spent on those items may be as high as 90%, after which time I have no money.  It just follows that the people earning the least feel the most..there ain&#8217;t too many diamond rings bought by window washers.</p>
<p>Point two: the illegals doing most of the construction and farm work around the country are invisible to data collection.  They aren&#8217;t counted, can&#8217;t be counted, and don&#8217;t want to be counted.  I live in SoCal<br />
and the construction projects still running have no workers all of a sudden.  They are manned by white and black guys working double shifts.</p>
<p>Not counting at least ten percent of the work force means faulty data.  If inflation was derived from separate income groups and what they can afford to buy we&#8217;d have a hell of a number.</p>
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		<title>By: Spencer</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/comment-page-2/#comment-93318</link>
		<dc:creator>Spencer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 20:57:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/06/who-is-right-professionals-or-the-populace/#comment-93318</guid>
		<description>The CNBC survey today that asked would you favor a new refinery in your back yard if it lowered gas prices really pissed me off.

New refiners can not generate an increase in the supply of oil and lower gas prices.

Isn&#039;t there some way to make them explain on the air how a new refinery would reduce the price of oil?



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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The CNBC survey today that asked would you favor a new refinery in your back yard if it lowered gas prices really pissed me off.</p>
<p>New refiners can not generate an increase in the supply of oil and lower gas prices.</p>
<p>Isn&#8217;t there some way to make them explain on the air how a new refinery would reduce the price of oil?</p>
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