Comments on: Five phases to the current down-cycle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 20 Mar 2010 23:51:49 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: ben http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95089 ben Thu, 10 Jul 2008 04:10:15 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95089 Number 6 is when rosenberg turns bullish by calling a bottom. ha. don't hold your breath. Number 6 is when rosenberg turns bullish by calling a bottom.

ha.

don’t hold your breath.

]]> By: Trends I'm Watching http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95090 Trends I'm Watching Wed, 09 Jul 2008 13:20:26 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95090 <strong>The five phases to 2008 down-cycle</strong> Trend: Housing starts peaked in Q1 2006, starting the current down cycle; the end is not yet in sight. The Big Picture reports an analysis from David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch – the five phases to this current down-cycle. Link: The Big Picture | Five ... The five phases to 2008 down-cycle

Trend: Housing starts peaked in Q1 2006, starting the current down cycle; the end is not yet in sight. The Big Picture reports an analysis from David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch – the five phases to this current down-cycle. Link: The Big Picture | Five …

]]> By: omodes123@yahoo.com http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95088 omodes123@yahoo.com Wed, 09 Jul 2008 03:05:57 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95088 I just read Rosenberg's morning market memo and glad to know I'm spot on in my portfolio. Began shorting oil and coal like a MoFo today. I saw the same exact thing myself where energy sector equities have not risen yet the price of oil was leaping higher. I also believe the story with financials is not over (how could it be? credit contraction just got started). You can check my portfolio out here http://caps.fool.com/player/mgiv.aspx. I just read Rosenberg’s morning market memo and glad to know I’m spot on in my portfolio.

Began shorting oil and coal like a MoFo today. I saw the same exact thing myself where energy sector equities have not risen yet the price of oil was leaping higher.

I also believe the story with financials is not over (how could it be? credit contraction just got started).

You can check my portfolio out here http://caps.fool.com/player/mgiv.aspx.

]]> By: zackattack http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95087 zackattack Tue, 08 Jul 2008 23:04:43 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95087 Holy crap, I just had a TGBBGDDD (the great big bell goes ding, ding, ding) moment! You know your bear market is long in the tooth when your plan administrator introduces a 130/30 long/short fund as an option for your 401K. Holy crap, I just had a TGBBGDDD (the great big bell goes ding, ding, ding) moment!

You know your bear market is long in the tooth when your plan administrator introduces a 130/30 long/short fund as an option for your 401K.

]]> By: Victor http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95086 Victor Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:44:15 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95086 This is Mish's perspective over at globaleconomicanalysis. He's been more spot on than any other economic commentator in the blogosphere. This is Mish’s perspective over at globaleconomicanalysis. He’s been more spot on than any other economic commentator in the blogosphere.

]]> By: JB http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95085 JB Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:10:59 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95085 Regardless of what happens, the discontent is palpable.... I was a freshman in college for the 2001 crash though so I don't know how this go-around compares though to prior recessions. ;) Rasmussen came out with this today: "Congressional Approval Falls to Single Digits for First Time Ever" http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance/congressional_performance 9% rate Congress 'good' or 'excellent.' Yikes. Regardless of what happens, the discontent is palpable…. I was a freshman in college for the 2001 crash though so I don’t know how this go-around compares though to prior recessions. ;)

Rasmussen came out with this today:

“Congressional Approval Falls to Single Digits for First Time Ever”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance/congressional_performance

9% rate Congress ‘good’ or ‘excellent.’ Yikes.

]]> By: Peter T http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95084 Peter T Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:00:27 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95084 >We need a strong and viable centrist 3rd party. The party system is determined by the election system. Without some kind of run-off voting (instant or second round), there will be no strong third party. >We need a strong and viable centrist 3rd party.

The party system is determined by the election system. Without some kind of run-off voting (instant or second round), there will be no strong third party.

]]> By: alex http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95083 alex Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:44:44 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95083 I have been reading Rosenberg's commentary for a while and he seems to be one of the wall st guys who is spot on. He is calling for much lower yield on the long end of the curve going forward -- deflation. There was a recent analysis cited in John Mauldin's last newsletter from a bond fund in texas asserting the same thing. They pointed out that between public equity market declines and housing asset declines, US wealth has fallen by $5.2 Trillion. In addition, the financial system has experienced losses of over $1 Trillion (depending on which source you believe) and will experience more. All of these effects are deflationary. The two primary macroecon questions driving the market today are: 1) what is causing oil to go up so dramatically? 2) is the price of oil inflationary or deflationary? My guess is that it is deflationary. The big risk to the downside in both the price of oil as well as equities in general is that China experiences a major slowdown and/or a major revaluation of its currency or energy subsidies. My guess is that all will happen post-Olympics as the US economy slows. If China slows along with the US, look out below for oil, as well as for US equities I have been reading Rosenberg’s commentary for a while and he seems to be one of the wall st guys who is spot on. He is calling for much lower yield on the long end of the curve going forward — deflation.

There was a recent analysis cited in John Mauldin’s last newsletter from a bond fund in texas asserting the same thing. They pointed out that between public equity market declines and housing asset declines, US wealth has fallen by $5.2 Trillion.

In addition, the financial system has experienced losses of over $1 Trillion (depending on which source you believe) and will experience more. All of these effects are deflationary.

The two primary macroecon questions driving the market today are:

1) what is causing oil to go up so dramatically?

2) is the price of oil inflationary or deflationary?

My guess is that it is deflationary.

The big risk to the downside in both the price of oil as well as equities in general is that China experiences a major slowdown and/or a major revaluation of its currency or energy subsidies. My guess is that all will happen post-Olympics as the US economy slows.

If China slows along with the US, look out below for oil, as well as for US equities

]]> By: Darkness http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95082 Darkness Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:09:08 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95082 >We need a strong and viable centrist 3rd party. The dems and reps are too indebted to <strike>the radical elements</strike> <strong>big industry and trade groups</strong> <strike>within</strike> <strong>supporting</strong> each of their parties to be effective <strong> representatives of the public good</strong>. --Fixed >We need a strong and viable centrist 3rd party. The dems and reps are too indebted to the radical elements big industry and trade groups within supporting each of their parties to be effective representatives of the public good.

–Fixed

]]> By: Bob_in_MA http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/comment-page-1/#comment-95081 Bob_in_MA Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:06:21 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/07/five-phases-to-the-current-down-cycle/#comment-95081 I'd add in a three more phases: First, the asset led slowdowns in other net-consuming nations: UK, Spain, Ireland (Eastern Europe ex Russia probably soon to follow.) Second, the need for aggressive tightening in fast-growth, net export, emerging market countries--which seem bent on keeping their currencies over-valued. Third, a slowdown in slower growth developed net exporters, ie., Japan, Germany, and others like Italy and France. All of which will contribute to a more profound (than most expect) slowdown in India, China, and the rest of Southeast Asia sometime over the next year. That will lead to a big fall in Commodity prices, taking down Russia, Brazil, etc. I’d add in a three more phases:

First, the asset led slowdowns in other net-consuming nations: UK, Spain, Ireland (Eastern Europe ex Russia probably soon to follow.)

Second, the need for aggressive tightening in fast-growth, net export, emerging market countries–which seem bent on keeping their currencies over-valued.

Third, a slowdown in slower growth developed net exporters, ie., Japan, Germany, and others like Italy and France.

All of which will contribute to a more profound (than most expect) slowdown in India, China, and the rest of Southeast Asia sometime over the next year.

That will lead to a big fall in Commodity prices, taking down Russia, Brazil, etc.

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