Time to temper the previous comment I made to your buy signal…

You could be right about a late-January-like bounce.

However, you are definitely early. Just like yesterday, this morning’s bounce will fail. The bottom from which the market might bounce most definitely is not yet in.

Debunk that please, Leftback.

Barry is a Macro guy. Macro people are often early on their calls, and because they make up a minority of traders, they often experience some pain setting up a trade BECAUSE they see an imbalance earlier than most. Momentum investors, on the other hand, almost by definition, are NEVER early, and there are a lot more of them. They tend to overstay their welcome, and get burned at the back end of long held trades. A lot of these guys are long oil right now.

Mitch,

Nobody is saying peak oil won’t happen AT SOME STAGE. But oil is not going to go up 5% every week in a straight line, no matter how many shady sources are quoted and how many totally unconfirmed rumors are floated into the markets.

BTW, if Paul Krugman thinks that all the oil traded is delivered and that there is no manipulation of the oil and other commodity markets, I will show you an ivory tower academic who doesn’t understand futures markets as well as he thinks…..

There are so many charts out there in history that look like the USO right now…. take a few other slowing economies, a small increase in the $ and some people with big reputations are going to look pretty silly in a few months.

It looked good until the dollar tanked and oil went vertical around 2pm. Markets dropped 200 points from there.

Don’t let non-traders stress you out — they simply don’t know.

Its a statistical trade. You play the odds when they are in your favor. Theres no guarantee that trades do not go against you.

Thats the Inst. side of the business. That’s something you learn when you manage assets or trade for a living.

Not if they’re reading Bill Bonner:

What Bush learned behind closed doors [in his recent visit to kiss Prince Abdullah's ring]

If some well-informed experts are right, Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves are a fraction of what they’ve been telling us.

Why does it matter? Because everyone has believed for decades that Saudi Arabia’s oil supply is virtually unlimited. That’s what the Saudis have said over and over again for more than 30 years.

If an oil shortage threatens to cause a recession or a market crash, we can count on the Saudis to come through. So people think.

But in a private briefing, one of America’s top oil experts told President George Bush exactly what I’m telling you. In fact, this same man was a consultant to the secretive task force that drew up Vice President Dick Cheney’s energy plan in 2001.

In other words, the guy is a heavy hitter who knows the energy business.

He warned Bush that the Saudis don’t have anything near the oil reserves they claim. They already pump less oil than most “experts” think, and here’s the real kicker…

Saudi oil production is about to drop sharply. And it will keep going down for good.

[end excerpt]

And that’s why we got rid of Saddam. And that’s why peak oil is not a fairy tale.

Wake up, people.

I feel like we are watching the $ and Euro wrestling for control every day. The $ is overdue a little break upwards.

Are the oil longs getting nervous here? Could be some more interesting commodity action over the next 7-10 days.