A reader writes: "You have mentioned blog traffic spiking near bottoms. How’d that work out this week?"

Answer: Pretty good…

Below is the past 30 days traffic, with Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday circled in blue; Average volume is blue line.

>

Traffic_this_week_2

>

Previously:
Traffic Spike? (January 2008)   
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/traffic-spike.html

Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator (February 2008) 
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/blog-traffic-as.html

Traffic Indicates (June 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/traffic-indicat.html

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Web/Tech, Weblogs

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

22 Responses to “Traffic Peaked Again Near Short Term Bottom”

  1. Jeff says:

    The prevailing question is – is this THE bottom or A bottom? This market might have room to run a bit, but I still think it’s the latter.

  2. Roger Bigod says:

    If you get much more exposure, you might end up like the restaurant Yogi Berra talked about. It got so popular that nobody went there anymore. I mean, would you rather be admired by all the cool, discerning people or an A list celebrity and awesomely rich? Um…

  3. SINGER says:

    Dude, this indicator is for real!!!

    Why would this be THE bottom??? when THE top happened not even a year ago???

  4. Paul Jones says:

    Or does it spike near Fed intervention?

  5. alexd says:

    The question is not whether this is the bottom for the general market, but is this the bottom for specific sectors?

    Biotech, financial, coal, Natural gas?

    Sure it is nice to catch a sea change, but fisherman work with the tide.

  6. babygal says:

    I like that casual use of the term “short term bottom”.

  7. Mike in NOLa says:

    Barry:

    Would you please create a graph of the YTD? I’d like to see the beginning of the Spring Rally after the BS bailout.

  8. CNBC Sucks says:

    Those numbers are sick, BR. You give me page-view envy. I am but a tiny pilot fish to your great white shark.

  9. SteveC says:

    Its too bad Barry that the best blog entry you’ve ever written was on the day or very close to this most recent bottom. Save it, we’ll need it again fairly soon. Everything you said is still true.

  10. Roger says:

    Barry,

    I am from the land of down-under and normally enjoy your blog from the land of the free and Federally supported.
    I am struggling to find the link / co-relation that is suggested here. When loads more people visit your site, this results in a bounce?
    Funny, but not that scientific.
    Maybe if Yahoo put your blog on their finance page, we could make 14000 by Christmas?

  11. Kevin McKern says:

    I think what Barry is suggesting is that as his blog is the most bearish of the mainstream blogs. Hence when bearish sentiment peaks, a rally is due from a contrarian perspective.

  12. catman says:

    I think the new Barry Blog bounce phenomena may be due to the fact that this particular crew is very active around market turning points. I know I spent more time at the keyboard and less at the golf course this week. It made me some dough and helped my tendonitis. Is this a great site or what?

  13. Groty says:

    Add it to the bag of sentiment tricks. AAII, P/C ratio, Arms, A/D, Hi/Low and now the TBP page views.

    If it gives an edge, why not?

  14. Mr Mortgage says:

    My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.

    Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?

    Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.

  15. Mr Mortgage says:

    My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.

    Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?

    Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.

  16. Steve Barry says:

    I know some sentiment surveys are calling for a rally and you got a big one for certain sectors. Chartwise, I just pored over a dozen of the beaten down financials…have to say that even after the massive bounce, most of them are just getting to their 21 or 50 day MAs, which they have done several times before. One chart that befuddles me is JPM…that’s a really strange looking one…smells of manipulation. It seems to be a wave with the envelope expanding in a feedback loop that will result in an uncontrollable event.

    Aside from surveys, indicators which show actual bets being made are actually too bullish. Put/Calls are very complacent…Committment of Traders shows small speculators (dumb money) long S&P and Dow and flat on Nas. I will hold QID, which despite a 500 point 3 day Dow rally, was relatively unscathed.

  17. Eric Davis says:

    It’s just a Relative measure, Shows; massive market participation, confusion, people looking for answers.

    Another good metric, is when the comments move into the 90 range

    Don’t eat the Soap!

  18. Mr Mortgage says:

    My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.

    Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?

    Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.

  19. Mr Mortgage says:

    My traffic did too. I remembered reading that and actually bought a boat load of short-term at the money xlf calls. 11 standard deviations later, I have to thank you.

    Question – is traffic only peaking because the blogging is becoming more intense and interesting? Is the intensity of the market bringing better blogging?

    Who the hell knows but that was one hell of a trade.

  20. phil says:

    Barry,

    Can you keep the daily update posted on your website or do you think that would defeat it’s reliability? A good physics major would experiment.

    Phil

  21. Bob A says:

    This was either the left butt cheek or the right butt check but probably not both.

  22. [...] the market peaked in October 2007, I have pointed out (repeatedly) when TBP traffic soared in response to the credit crisis. Each time, we noted this was a good contrary indicator, and used [...]