Comments on: Civilian Unemployment & Recessions http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 20:08:08 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Bruce http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103123 Bruce Sat, 30 Aug 2008 02:43:06 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103123 Britain Faces Worst Economic Crisis in 60 Years... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7589291.stm By none other than Alistar Darling... I can still wait awhile before I send Mr. Washington and Mr. Lincoln back to work for me in this market... Bruce in Tennessee Britain Faces Worst Economic Crisis in 60 Years…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7589291.stm

By none other than Alistar Darling…

I can still wait awhile before I send Mr. Washington and Mr. Lincoln back to work for me in this market…

Bruce in Tennessee

]]> By: icm63 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103122 icm63 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 18:25:22 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103122 WARNING. FDIC survey of Lending standards tightening, and inflation have a high correlation with how bad unemployment can get. At the moment both tight lending standards and inflation are higher than 1991/2001 so unemployment rate peaking at above 7.5% is a very big possibility. Its not un american to be a boy scout and be prepared, (I am not american), so good luck. WARNING. FDIC survey of Lending standards tightening, and inflation have a high correlation with how bad unemployment can get. At the moment both tight lending standards and inflation are higher than 1991/2001 so unemployment rate peaking at above 7.5% is a very big possibility. Its not un american to be a boy scout and be prepared, (I am not american), so good luck.

]]> By: JimmyY http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103121 JimmyY Fri, 29 Aug 2008 16:47:25 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103121 Hi Barry. Have you noticed.... Per U.S. DoL's 8/21 initial claims release: "States reported 1,284,252 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 2, an increase of 570,284 from the prior week." I looked at initial claims news releases prior to 8/21 and could NOT find any reference to the "570k prior week" statistic. The 8/28 initial claims are not better: "States reported 980,695 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 9, a decrease of 313,633 from the prior week." Unfortunately, the 8/21 EUC numbers were revised +10k within the 8/28 report. More analysis from Mike Donnelly: http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/2008/08/15-million-more-at-the-unemployment-office.html Looks like the employment picture (or lack thereof) seems very ominous. Hi Barry.

Have you noticed….

Per U.S. DoL’s 8/21 initial claims release:

“States reported 1,284,252 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 2, an increase of 570,284 from the prior week.”

I looked at initial claims news releases prior to 8/21 and could NOT find any reference to the “570k prior week” statistic.

The 8/28 initial claims are not better:

“States reported 980,695 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Aug. 9, a decrease of 313,633 from the prior week.”

Unfortunately, the 8/21 EUC numbers were revised +10k within the 8/28 report.

More analysis from Mike Donnelly:

http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/2008/08/15-million-more-at-the-unemployment-office.html

Looks like the employment picture (or lack thereof) seems very ominous.

]]> By: Steve C http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103120 Steve C Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:41:53 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103120 Very nice work Barry. When does it become profitable to start buying stocks when a recession is looming? Since the stock market is, theoretically, always six months ahead, should we start buying stocks now in preparation for the recovery? Very nice work Barry. When does it become profitable to start buying stocks when a recession is looming? Since the stock market is, theoretically, always six months ahead, should we start buying stocks now in preparation for the recovery?

]]> By: philipat http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103119 philipat Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:39:11 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103119 Excuse me if I am wrong but doesn't the third graph suggest that when the rate of change goes over 15 this is coincident with the END of a recession? Excuse me if I am wrong but doesn’t the third graph suggest that when the rate of change goes over 15 this is coincident with the END of a recession?

]]> By: mickslam http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103118 mickslam Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:37:47 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103118 Alright Barry - We get it!!!! You think we are in a recession!! jeeze... But you do have to say it over and over, as there is a substantial crowd out there that thinks we are growing at like 3.2% or something crazy. I would like this chart better if they used U-9 but thats a quibble not a criticism. The more important question now "is when does it end?" Alright Barry – We get it!!!!

You think we are in a recession!! jeeze…

But you do have to say it over and over, as there is a substantial crowd out there that thinks we are growing at like 3.2% or something crazy.

I would like this chart better if they used U-9 but thats a quibble not a criticism.

The more important question now “is when does it end?”

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-103117 leftback Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:35:35 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/2008/08/civilian-unemployment-recessions/#comment-103117 That income number was a shocker this morning, eh Barry? That was actually worse than the more bearish predictions. We are probably seeing a confluence of rising unemployment and a decrease in hours worked among those employed, something not as obvious but that you can see going on around us. Fannie and Freddie common not looking like the bargain of the century today, I see.... That income number was a shocker this morning, eh Barry? That was actually worse than the more bearish predictions.

We are probably seeing a confluence of rising unemployment and a decrease in hours worked among those employed, something not as obvious but that you can see going on around us.

Fannie and Freddie common not looking like the bargain of the century today, I see….

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