James Hamilton has been relying upon Unemployment data to model whether or not we are in a recession.
Friday’s release pretty much sent his model over the edge:
"Sure looks like a recession when you inspect a graph the unemployment rate,
doesn’t it? And it also looks like a recession from the perspective of a model
of unemployment dynamics that I published
in 2005. If you use that model to analyze the latest unemployment numbers,
you’d calculate the current probability of being in a recession at 95%.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.