Bank of Jamaica
By Barry Ritholtz - October 10th, 2008, 3:15PM
The Bank of Jamaica says:
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hat tip Michael Muhlbach
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Macro Notes
US$ rally continuesPeter Boockvar
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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October 10th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
BOOM! RALLY! We’re gonna close positive. F-ck chillin’… You can chill when the market’s closed.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Apparently Kingston has some clout.
I’m assuming the rebound is due to the LEH crap being resolved without catastrophic ramifications?
October 10th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
And pass the dutchie pon de left hand side…
October 10th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I think the bears are making their “Vix 70″ hats to pass around the floor of the exchange
October 10th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
that rally was sooo 2 minutes ago
October 10th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Last minute bargain hunting rally before the weekend… I wonder if there will be a last second profit taking/ escape hatch dive…
October 10th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Even mud bounces a little if it falls fast enough before it hits.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
is the late rally here due to shorts covering?
the same shorts that caused the who problem? where’s Cox….
October 10th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
What happens in Jamaica,
stays in your system for 30 days
October 10th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
HOLY SH*T! DOW +850 in 40 minutes?? This is absurd. This isn’t a market anymore, it’s just a Casino.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
It is up 273 right now. If Paulson were smart, he’d declare the market closed 30 minutes early and go home with 1 out of 7…
October 10th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
what ever you do, DON’T BLINK! you’ll miss a 100pt move. these moves should squash the doubts of anyone betting against sideline money.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Stock market is down what $2T?
How much housing credit bubble was there?
About $2T right?
The money came from the stock market and commodities. We are all good to go going forward.
October 10th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
What happens in Jamaica,
stays in your system for 30 days
Don’t forget the hair test!
October 10th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I need a drink……
October 10th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Legalize the ganja. Then we could all chill out, and CA’s economy would improve drastically. ;^)
October 10th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
@leftback, shocking coming from you!
October 10th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Holding all positions over the weekend. I only have longs and I feel VERY comfortable
October 10th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
The market should close at 4:20, ya dig?
October 10th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
A famous reggae song the radio station in San Francisco used to play every Friday at 5 p.m. Could be some sound advice for everybody here…
Smoke two joints in the morning,
smoke two joints at night.
Smoke two joints in the afternoon,
it makes me feel alright.
I smoke two joints in time of peace, and two in times of war…
I smoke two joints and then I smoke two joints,
and then I smoke two more…
Smoke..two…joints!
chill, mon.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Well, okay, just a Red Stripe for me, mon…..
October 10th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Barry, How ’bout some Friday nite jazz, already?
October 10th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Rally Monkey… that rally was sooo 2 minutes ago
lol Right! …closed red
October 10th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Mine didn’t close red rob.
Look at GLW and GRMN. I think these have been bottoming over the last 2 days.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Can’t get that one to come up on my terminal. Could it be a hoax?
October 10th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Does the PPT operate out of Jamaica?
October 10th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
@leftback: Might have to bail on GDX soon. Don’t like it. Are you still in?
October 10th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Jtil -
Even better than your song is Sublime’s “Smoke two joints”
I smoke two joints in the morning
I smoke two joints at night
I smoke two joints in the afternoon
It makes me feel alright
I smoke two joints in time of peace,
and two in time of war
I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints,
And then I smoke two more
The really should legalize marijuana… It would help the economy. And wouldn’t it be hilarious to hear someone say “I’m short Altria at these levels, but long Doritos and Pringles, dude”
HCF
October 10th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
NASDAQ rally!
woo hoo!
We must be at the bottom!
October 10th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
@ Jeff M: traded out of GDX this morning and used the cash to go SSO/UYG for a trade, didn’t like the action in GLD. You have to figure gold will have another run, though. Crazy market…
October 10th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
This crash sucks. Dylan Ratigan keeps talking about a crash and I’m not seeing one. Are you seeing one? Nameless meathead after meathead on CNBC saying here’s the bottom and you should buy. That’s not a crash.
Somebody let me know when the movie starts.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Wow…Jamaica has a central bank? Who knew?
October 10th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Depending somewhat on what happens over the weekend, I have a bad feeling about next Monday.
I bought a little today (very small amounts) but I think I may be too early.
October 10th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
From clusterstock.com:
“So the final results from the Lehman Brothers CDS auction are in, and they’re even uglier than expected. Finally price is 8.625 cents on the dollar.”
SKF should go wild again soon.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
CNBC sucks:
FYI, I’m short GE.
So, STFU.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Reading the comments above it is amazing how only a few of you seem to comprehend the significance of Barry’s post. Finally, he has found a central banker who has a real plan. What we need to do is send Bernanke, Paulson, Trichet, etc. down to Kingston for the weekend. By Monday I guarantee you that, as the great Bob Marley said, “Everything’s gonna be alright…”
October 10th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I think David is right and that this is a hoax.
But who cares?
Frankly, it’s more intelligent advice than anything Greenspan, Bernanke, or any U.S. official has offered in the past 20 years!
Can’t wait to do it again on Monday! LOL
October 10th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Just came across this whilst snarking, but it’s definitely worth a read…
http://www.swarthmore.edu/~apreset1/docs/if.html
October 10th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Now here this youthman!
Babylon is burning me seh so if you don’t know Far I, you’ve got to come on over! Watch them money changers and them politricks. None can stop this judgement, Dread. Nuff labba labba pon this blog – its full time we repatriate me seh Jah Jah. You cannot walk in a Babylon when you have a weak heart and a bad mind. Fire Pon the Wicked man, Blessed love pon the poor man.
Ecuse me while I light my spliff.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
To the tune of “No Woman No Cry”:
I remember when the Dow was at
13,000 and more
And all the traders down in the pit
Were expecting it to soar
Good profits we had, oh, good profits we’ve lost
Along the way down
In this bear market you don’t know when to bet
So it’s time to get out of town
No trader, don’t bet
No trader, don’t bet
October 10th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
No BR…
That was the Central “DANK” of Jamaica…
They dont have a central bank.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
http://www.boj.org.jm/
yes, Virginia, there is a Central Bank of Jamaica
Posted by: Wonderwood | Oct 10, 2008 5:11:51 PM
nice post~
October 10th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Good Afternoon: Your money is no longer on fire……..and there is a reason why..
October 10th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
B in T, why is that? Perhaps because it is crisp and chard? The bottom comes when not anyone NADA!, is saying: this is the bottom.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
i’m expecting some EXTREME response from our gov and gov from around the world. remember nothing is out of question. they are desperate. rumors floating regarding anullment of swap contracts sacrificing some large hedge funds. how bot capital controls. how bout a debasement of the dollar which once again will dessimate those who have saved and avoided this mess. it is all pathetic and disgusting.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
to the jamaican bank YA MON
October 10th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
I wish/miss old Roukiserzzzzer (spelling sucks) on National Public Telivision…I use to watch him as a teen-ager back in the seventies – he’d drag out guess after guess and they’d have no answers but would let everyone know that when the time comes this is what you should be thinking. Oh! I miss those good old days of pastorial judgement, where some distance only made good sense.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Very much in a longstanding local tradition set by Peter Tosh
The day de dollar die
I see Johnny with his head hanging down
Wondering how many shillings left in that pound
Cost of living it is rising so high
Dollar see that have heart attack and die
Bills and budgets are waiting
Finance ministers anticipating
Unemployment is rising
And I hear my people, they’re crying
The day the dollar die
Things are gonna be better
The day the dollar die
No more corruption
The day the dollar die
People will respect eachother
The day the dollar die
Tell me brother
Is there something I can do
Don’t you let frustrations make you blue
Time is hard
And I know that is true
But if you pick yourself up
That’s all you’ve got to do
Things can be much better
If we can come together
Long time we been divided
And it’s time we be inited
The day the dollar die
Gonna be better
The day the dollar die
I won’t need no pockets
The day the dollar die
Don’t have to be frettin’
The day the dollar die
Now I see you standing on your feet
And you can also make two ends meet
Never you let life problems get you down
There is always a solution to be found
Bills and budgets are mourning
Finance ministers groaning
Unemployment is rising
And I hear my people crying from the ghetto
The day the dollar die
It’s gonna be nice
The day the dollar die
Just you wait and see
The day this here dollar die
There be no more inflation
The day the dollar die
I say the day Danny dollar die
The day Sammy dollar die
We will love eachother
I said the day this a dollar die
Fight some inflation
October 10th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
“This town
is coming like a Ghost town”
-the Specials
October 10th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Barry
I need a break. Have you stopped the Friday night music entries. Listening to James Taylors covers right now….its ok.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
The text of the G-7 plan of action..
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/text-g-7-plan-action/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA17FACB%2DA411%2D4971%2D91FD%2DC9811C0534DC%7D&dist=hplatest
October 10th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Paulson states: “the root cause of the problem is sub-prime.” My Ass! The root cause is those on Wall-STreet and those in Washington who sat by and watched and made easy money off of “enhanced investment vichicles!” Our Government and the People who bribe them (Lobbyist) need to be hanged by the highest tree!!!
October 10th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
QID made a higher high and higher low…good enough by me. Holding my target at 130. I don’t see that much fear when, as of Tuesday, small and large speculators were net LONG 150K S&P futures contracts and net LONG 10K Nas futures. As Paulson is speaking right now on some G7 scheme, which I honestly can’t figure out what he is saying, the after-hours market is like crickets…in fact QQQQ falling.
As for QQQQ fundamentals, they took another hit today as euro tanked. I now estimate that instead of the usual 5% earnings gain due to weaker dollar, the ALL IMPORTANT 4Q will see a 5% DECLINE due to the dollar’s rally.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
These harebrained schemes get us further away from free market capitalism, are preventing debt from being retired and are making things worse.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
The only plan I want, to backstop all bank deposits for us widows and orphans, they WON’T do.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
If my calculations are correct here are the Dow’s major swings for the today October 10, 2008:
Open 9:30 AM 8,401 (Excluded from calculations below)
9:31 AM 8,446
9:37 AM 7,906 (Down 540 pts. in 6 mins.)
10:08 AM 8,627 (Up 721 pts. in 31 mins.)
1:53 PM 8,040 (Down 587 pts. in 3 hrs. 45 mins.)
3:35 PM 8,870 (Up 830 pts. in 1 hr. 42 mins.)
4:00 PM 8,451 (Down 419 pts. in 25 mins.)
Approximate total major point swing = 3,097 pts.
Close on Thursday 10-09-08 8,579
Down 128 pts. from close on Thursday
October 10th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Isn’t that where 8000 American corporations are “headquartered” in a building the size of the Super Dome in order to avoid taxes? They can afford a Central Bank!!
October 10th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
Uh, maybe it’s time to check on that Rapture clock…
Larry Kudlow and Paul Krugman are agreeing with each other!
October 10th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Good news if you are long QID…the latest short interest data, as of 9/30, shows astoundingly lower short ratios, even as the market was dropping. There is NO CHANCE of a short squeeze that is needed to start the rebound. I repeat…NO CHANCE. There is no fear, no pent up buying. QQQQ and AAPL have ratios below 1/2 and RIMM, MSFT, CSCO, ORCL and DELL are all frimly below 1 (use my link and dropdowns).
Check out some financials too…this data reflects the short ban. GS and MS have virtually no shorts, but C did not drop all that much.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Well clay, if that cycle continues, then the DOW should go up close to one thousand points on the next open, and then down another 400, and then…
October 10th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Hold your horses…this one hasn’t been talked about much…NY Municipal bond funds in freefall. States will have trouble raising money.
Rut Row
October 10th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I’d say the Fastest way to lose ‘money’ would be to Fade Steve Berry, not to say I think he’s always,;, right….
Past that, anyone who is long/buying Munis is asking for a Major Haircut, at the minimum..
these are different days..
see: Paulson states: “the root cause of the problem is sub-prime.” My Ass! The root cause is those on Wall-STreet and those in Washington who sat by and watched and made easy money off of “enhanced investment vichicles!” Our Government and the People who bribe them (Lobbyist) need to be hanged by the highest tree!!!
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Oct 10, 2008 6:55:45 PM
whether, or not, ‘they’ need to hung, we should know we’re being hung–out to dry..
October 10th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Eeee, cripes! TEDSP keeps leaping upwards, now at 4.64:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Watching the DJIA and NASDAQ and S&P and all other equity indices yo-yo up and down is interesting and all. But if the true root of the problem is the frozen credit market, then perhaps we should all be watching the Ted Spread instead. And if so, this ain’t good news.
October 11th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Love that. It’s exactly what everyone needs too do. The funny thing is no one ever doubts Jamaica’s ability to chill out. Maybe Wall Street needs to study why no one doubts Jamaica’s creds for relaxation.
October 11th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Going canoeing this morning, but will be back tonight.
One thing to consider, Marx said that religion was the opiate of the masses. Consider that in Western Society, credit and debt may be those surrogates for religion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXCtv.lATO8I&refer=us
This says that our defecit will be at least twice what the all time high in 1983 of 6% of GDP…Bloomberg.
Think about this, this was the wrong kind of debt for the last 20 years, too much house, massive credit card debt, school loans that hadn’t been paid off when you were 40, and so forth.
If the government is successful in pumping in the kind of liquidity the above article states, we are probably back to the house built of sticks…and the big bad wolf of a future recession will just be that much harder to overcome.
I think we’d be better off not to buy a car on a 6 year note, but rather a 2 or 3 year note; you can think of a million examples of “rotten” debt that is relatively mindless and amounts to keeping up with the Joneses…er, Ritholtzes….
October 11th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Barron’s cover this week has a bull crying…but the top headline story says Dow is close to a bottom and the second headline is 25 terrific tocks to buy…then opportunities in Europe and Asia looks cheap. Nothing there indicates capitulation…quite the opposite.
October 14th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Chill out, get yourself a rasta name at
http://www.irielion.com/israel/reggaename.html
and then go long on Red Stripe!