Comments on: Builder Sentiment Hits All Time Low http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 20 Mar 2010 08:35:19 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: HT http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122471 HT Fri, 17 Oct 2008 11:47:36 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122471 Did anyone see the 30 year mortgage rate hit 6.7% yesterday from the mid 5's not long ago? That's a direct effect of the bailout = the resulting increase in the M3 from the printing presses in overdrive etc. Ironically the medicine has side effects... Short the long bond. Did anyone see the 30 year mortgage rate hit 6.7% yesterday from the mid 5’s not long ago?

That’s a direct effect of the bailout = the resulting increase in the M3 from the printing presses in overdrive etc.

Ironically the medicine has side effects… Short the long bond.

]]> By: Michael M http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122470 Michael M Fri, 17 Oct 2008 11:44:03 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122470 This article in today's NYT also strongly supports the argument that house prices still need to go down substantially. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/business/economy/16housing.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin This article in today’s NYT also strongly supports the argument that house prices still need to go down substantially.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/business/economy/16housing.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin

]]> By: fresno dan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122469 fresno dan Fri, 17 Oct 2008 10:42:33 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122469 "leftback" Agree 100% about people not wanting loans. I am getting more offers (Wells Fargo, my mortgage holder is sending me letters BEGGING me to take out a HELOC). I don't like debt, and my house is going down in value (I have been in it for years, and the price it had risen to was unsustainable - I am better off living in a world where prices reflect true worth). It would make no sense to borrow for home improvement - prediction - people will look back and say, "what were we thinking, 10's of thousands of dollars for rock countertops?) “leftback”
Agree 100% about people not wanting loans. I am getting more offers (Wells Fargo, my mortgage holder is sending me letters BEGGING me to take out a HELOC). I don’t like debt, and my house is going down in value (I have been in it for years, and the price it had risen to was unsustainable – I am better off living in a world where prices reflect true worth). It would make no sense to borrow for home improvement – prediction – people will look back and say, “what were we thinking, 10’s of thousands of dollars for rock countertops?)

]]> By: bsneath http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122468 bsneath Fri, 17 Oct 2008 08:44:08 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122468 I'm waiting for the light bulbs to go on around here. Must admit it is looking dim. I’m waiting for the light bulbs to go on around here. Must admit it is looking dim.

]]> By: Howard http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122467 Howard Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:44:58 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122467 During the thirties the farmers, plagued by too much food, started destroying the food supply. Dumping milk, crushing corn, and stampeding cattle over cliffs. I don't know how it worked but the idea of lowering supply is valid. Moving right along: we could start burning houses in order to stimulate demand. Don't laugh, think it through. Burning them down is the most economically efficient way to reduce the housing supply. Burning them down with two politicians inside each of them would catch on like....dare I say "wild fire?" During the thirties the farmers, plagued by too much food, started destroying the food supply. Dumping milk, crushing corn, and stampeding cattle over cliffs. I don’t know how it worked but the idea of lowering supply is valid. Moving right along: we could start burning houses in order to stimulate demand. Don’t laugh, think it through. Burning them down is the most economically efficient way to reduce the housing supply. Burning them down with two politicians inside each of them would catch on like….dare I say “wild fire?”

]]> By: Howard http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122466 Howard Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:44:17 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122466 During the thirties the farmers, plagued by too much food, started destroying the food supply. Dumping milk, crushing corn, and stampeding cattle over cliffs. I don't know how it worked but the idea of lowering supply is valid. Moving right along: we could start burning houses in order to stimulate demand. Don't laugh, think it through. Burning them down is the most economically efficient way to reduce the housing supply. Burning them down with two politicians inside each of them would catch on like....dare I say "wild fire?" During the thirties the farmers, plagued by too much food, started destroying the food supply. Dumping milk, crushing corn, and stampeding cattle over cliffs. I don’t know how it worked but the idea of lowering supply is valid. Moving right along: we could start burning houses in order to stimulate demand. Don’t laugh, think it through. Burning them down is the most economically efficient way to reduce the housing supply. Burning them down with two politicians inside each of them would catch on like….dare I say “wild fire?”

]]> By: jdd http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122465 jdd Fri, 17 Oct 2008 04:10:39 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122465 Why do people think foreclosed homeowners are going to lose their homes? If they like the home so much, they can just rent it from the bank. The bank is not going to be able to sell it. And, again, who cares? Anyone in trouble purchased their home within the past 5 years. This isn't grannie's homestead. These are low-quality, mass-produced stucco crapboxes that were never "owned" unless you consider 100% non-recourse financing at either a teaser or interest-only rate to be "ownership." This was rent with the option to purchase disguised as ownership. Homes are not the problem. The real estate issue is a symptom of the problem (loose credit driving down risk premiums) and not the cause. Chapter 11 is the solution and banks should have ended up there instead of shotgun marriages or the recipient of the residual profits of the next 150 years of unborn Americans. Why do people think foreclosed homeowners are going to lose their homes? If they like the home so much, they can just rent it from the bank. The bank is not going to be able to sell it.

And, again, who cares? Anyone in trouble purchased their home within the past 5 years. This isn’t grannie’s homestead. These are low-quality, mass-produced stucco crapboxes that were never “owned” unless you consider 100% non-recourse financing at either a teaser or interest-only rate to be “ownership.” This was rent with the option to purchase disguised as ownership.

Homes are not the problem. The real estate issue is a symptom of the problem (loose credit driving down risk premiums) and not the cause.

Chapter 11 is the solution and banks should have ended up there instead of shotgun marriages or the recipient of the residual profits of the next 150 years of unborn Americans.

]]> By: Bill J. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122464 Bill J. Fri, 17 Oct 2008 03:34:02 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122464 "If we had helped out homeowners months ago, the housing bust would be less severe and the credit markets might not have collapsed." Why in the heck should we help out irreponsible homeowners who probably lied on their loan application. What about all of the responsible renters who kept saving for a down payment and didn't jump for a house they couldn't afford. Housing prices have been artificially inflated by sleepy regulators and foolish and fraudulent lending. Let these people lose their homes that they didn't earn or deserve in the first place. Let the market bring prices down to affordable levels. There are plenty of renters with good credit who are more than ready to buy a house on honest terms. Let's stop rewarding the crooks and liars. “If we had helped out homeowners months ago, the housing bust would be less severe and the credit markets might not have collapsed.”

Why in the heck should we help out irreponsible homeowners who probably lied on their loan application. What about all of the responsible renters who kept saving for a down payment and didn’t jump for a house they couldn’t afford. Housing prices have been artificially inflated by sleepy regulators and foolish and fraudulent lending. Let these people lose their homes that they didn’t earn or deserve in the first place. Let the market bring prices down to affordable levels. There are plenty of renters with good credit who are more than ready to buy a house on honest terms. Let’s stop rewarding the crooks and liars.

]]> By: AGG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122463 AGG Fri, 17 Oct 2008 02:11:02 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122463 We have an economy where the richest speculators indebted all of us. The banks and credit markets go tilt. We can't borrow because our wages don't support more debt. It has nothing to do with whether the bank will loan us money. The middle class has been in a crisis for 10 years! The "visible" economy (the one reporters see) is now affected. The wacos that put us here are hiding in Grenwich with their 2 and 20. It's over for another ten years. Get used to it. We have an economy where the richest speculators indebted all of us. The banks and credit markets go tilt. We can’t borrow because our wages don’t support more debt. It has nothing to do with whether the bank will loan us money. The middle class has been in a crisis for 10 years! The “visible” economy (the one reporters see) is now affected. The wacos that put us here are hiding in Grenwich with their 2 and 20. It’s over for another ten years. Get used to it.

]]> By: bsneath http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/comment-page-1/#comment-122462 bsneath Fri, 17 Oct 2008 02:04:21 +0000 http://ritholtz.vs3.wilder.ca/blog/2008/10/builder-sentiment-hits-all-time-low/#comment-122462 Apparently Sheila Blair is the only official in Washington that understands what needs to be done to get us out of this mess. Provide help on the front end by keeping people in their homes rather than buying a lot of crappy paper from investment banks backed by non-paying loans in foreclosure. If we had helped out homeowners months ago, the housing bust would be less severe and the credit markets might not have collapsed. Apparently Sheila Blair is the only official in Washington that understands what needs to be done to get us out of this mess. Provide help on the front end by keeping people in their homes rather than buying a lot of crappy paper from investment banks backed by non-paying loans in foreclosure. If we had helped out homeowners months ago, the housing bust would be less severe and the credit markets might not have collapsed.

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