Comments on: Bullish Bears?

By: Mike in NOLa

Mike in NOLa — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:49:27 +0000

fresno dan’s guess heap good. Eventually.

By: fresno dan

fresno dan — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 20:39:55 +0000

Fresno dan predicted DOW 6000 is September ‘08. Fresno dan is sticking with it.

By: chris

chris — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:54:23 +0000

Steve Hochberg, a Robert Prechter (famous “permabear”) associate, is looking for a tradeable bottom in late October from lower levels. The Elliot Wave folks have called for trading rallies several times in the past 10 years, although they have been steadfast in their long-term view that gold will outperform until a major bottom is achieved.

By: david

david — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 13:20:30 +0000

It is way to early. S&P will go to 740.

By: jasras

jasras — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:42:24 +0000

@Steve B

I know there are many opinions, and what I wrote isn’t even mine to claim. Read Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly missive b/c that is where I got that the market has pulled back to trend. It is a long-term trend of 1.8% real on the S&P. Long term isn’t specified, but I am trusting that with Mr Grantham, it is absurdly long as with most of his stats.

By: wunsacon

wunsacon — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 06:07:11 +0000

>> Fundamentals didnt drive the panic selling from two weeks ago either.

Yes, it did. Everyone not sound asleep knew the economy was in trouble. But, many took their sweet time acting on that knowledge. And then Bush’s speech woke up the rest of the crowd, ushering massive selling.

That selling wasn’t based on technicals. It was based on a sudden cascade of information about fundamentals.

>> Maintaining a bias either way, bull or bear, is not the way to make money.

Steve Barry is up 70% this year based on his fundamental analysis. If that’s not the way to make money, what is?

By: Jim Oakley

Jim Oakley — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 05:21:54 +0000

BR,

I dont think it is quite accurate to say Fleck is bullish, maybe less bearish. At least that is my impression from his service.

By: Steve Barry

Steve Barry — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 05:17:52 +0000

@I-Man:

I did not take your earlier post as an attck at all…I like an intelligent debate. A rounded bottom is a strong log-term reversal pattern…I doubt it ran its full breakout in 2 weeks.

@jasras: Market has pulled to long-term trend? Some have argued that the Dow is still within its 100 year inflation adjusted trend to trade to 3500.

geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Dji200_0710.gif

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 04:17:34 +0000

Next shoe to drop:

Layoffs. The massive public and private sector kind of layoffs. Watch for it post election, but starting just in time for Christmas.

By: Dan

Dan — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 01:42:59 +0000

Barry,

The records show you were bullish throughout most of this recent sell-off. You kept getting stopped out, but you were bullish ever since the VIX hit about 40. Not trying to be a troll, but claiming that you became bullish on the day the market bottomed is VERY misleading.

~~~

BR: Dan, Dave, Cullen,

On 9/18, I wrote about the VIX spike on 9/18, saying: “The only question for traders is whether or not this sell off is closer to the ones seen over the past 2 years (in which case you can buy ‘em here) or more like the 2000- 03 period (in which case we have more selling to go).”

This, however, is the 3rd comment you’ve made from the IP address 75.85.166.6 under three different names, saying the same thing.

I stand by my public calls — and I have zero patience for those people who write misleading comments using different names — and then claim not to be a troll? Your behavior speaks for itself…