Dow 7884
By Barry Ritholtz - October 10th, 2008, 9:38AM
We look to be retesting the 2002 lows.
Circuit breakers kick in at ~7400
We are moving 10% of our cash into a long index ETF
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Macro Notes
US$ rally continuesPeter Boockvar
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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October 10th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Welcome to Nikkei 1991.
7000 (50% nominal loss) is the target.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Volcker…We Have the ‘Tools’ to Manage the Crisis
Is he speaking about Paulson, Bernanke or the biggest tool ‘The Decider’ ?
October 10th, 2008 at 9:46 am
i just backed up the truck.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Wow, an early snapper…go GDX…
October 10th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Wow, I called Dow 7XXX just yesterday, but I did not expect it to get here until Inauguration Day:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/consumer-credit.html
And I don’t expect the markets to fully recover to Dow 14K until Jack Bouroudjian retires:
http://cnbcsucks.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/the-fuckface-with-the-gop-id-tag-blames-market-downturn-on-obama/
October 10th, 2008 at 9:50 am
September 20, 1873
Panic closes NYSE
The Panic of 1873, which was triggered by overspeculation, continued to wreak havoc on the nation’s economy. Just two days after Jay Cooke & Co., one of the nation’s most reputable brokerage firms, declared bankruptcy, the New York Stock Exchange decided to close down for ten days to wait out the worst of the crisis. The secretary of the Treasury responded to these events by pumping $26 million of new currency into the economy, swelling the amount of paper money in circulation to $382 million.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Hi guys, I’m wondering if someone can help me. I’m looking for the “Vince Farrell Bottom”, anyone seen it?
October 10th, 2008 at 9:55 am
When I wrote about 10%, more or less, to go, I didn’t expect that it would all happen today. So be it.
I don’t have your courage but I do have a lot of cash and plan to put it in as the bottom forms. This bottoming process will probably begin next week. I want to wait for the wash sale rule to not be a problem so I will wait a few more weeks before positioning myself to scarf up some free money.
The basic market has maybe an easy 50% upside potential from the eventual bottom. And more if you get a little creative. Missing the first pop won’t be a detriment.
In 2003-2003, the bottom lasted about a year and had a pretty good spike in the middle. I think this one will last less time and the spike will surge when credit markets smell as if they are fixing themselves.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Not sure about Vince Farrell’s bottom but if we don’t hold here everyone will be bending over…
October 10th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Dear Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Baby Jesus, don’t even know a word yet, just a little infant, so cuddly, but still omnipotent. We’d just like to thank you for all the races I’ve won and the $21.2 million, LOVE THAT MONEY! That I have accrued over this past season. Also due to a binding endorsement contract that stipulates I mention PowerAde at each grace, I just wanna say that PowerAde is delicious and it cools you off on a hot summer day and we look forward to PowerAde’s release of mystic mountain blueberry. Thank you, for all your power and your grace, Dear Baby God, Amen.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
We stay above 875-880 and we go higher! Above 900 we could go to 970!!! Light ‘em up!
S&P futures
October 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
just got into sso at 27.90 with about 7% of my trading money
time will prove if im an idiot or not.
BRK was getting crushed but has snapped back decently
October 10th, 2008 at 10:03 am
So are we going to get a rally today as everyone “Locks in their losses?” lol
October 10th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Ricky Bobby, I don’t know what that has to do with the DOW, but did you write that yourself?
Rarely have I seen a paragraph that more succinctly summarizes American derangement.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Closed out SEF @ 102.41, SKF @ 194 .. 43.7% gain on the SKF, after seeing it go down 30% when the short rules started coming down, shoulda had the courage of my convictions at 90…
BUT…
Given the highly fluid situation regarding rule changing and (necessary) emergency interventionism, I’m glad to be out, even if I leave some $$$ on the table…
(and someone mentioned that ProShares short funds use swaps as well as shorts or puts, and to me the idea that the FedGov will monkey with swaps (which may end up being rendered null&void by Fed fiat and/or emergency legislation) is enough to get me out)
Time to start looking at soup and ammo…
October 10th, 2008 at 10:07 am
I bought some SKF puts. It’s made a sorta double top with the July high so far. Just for shits and grins, anyone want to guess where it would be if they hadn’t put in the short selling ban and stopped creating new shares? My guess is maybe 375 – 400. It was a HELLUVA buy at that double bottom at 90 a few weeks ago.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:08 am
VT: How big is your truck? Like, the whole truck?
Wonder if Goldman still has that $250 oil target??
I have some stops set, Bush talking is a frightening prospect.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Markets Down 45% From Peak On Profit Taking
October 10th, 2008 at 10:15 am
wow. as a follow-up to BR’s original post about gold.
priced in gold, $SPX is back to 1991 levels. Hooray W undid all of the gains from the Clinton years. Woo-hoo!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=M&b=1&g=0&id=p73053079499
October 10th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Barry, save this posts headline regarding the circuit breakers…you may want to look back on it and laugh. I see green on the screen and while it may not last, it may simply be the end of the rout and a return to more normal times.
BTW, how is the Lehman thing going? Anybody know?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Ricky Bobby saying Grace from
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (2006)
October 10th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Nice call on going long! I hope you got that 10% in PDQ…up 8% in less than an hour, if I’ve got my sums right.
Does this count as volatile yet?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Barry:
You should have waited another hour; W is about to talk
Anybody think he will announce anything of substance? If not, what is the point? And, if there is any new policy, the financial community would probably rather hear it from Hank.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:21 am
I am long here but terrified of Bush’s ability to move markets…
October 10th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Today is INSANE…
Market’s down 200, down 700, down 200, in positive territory. All in less than an hour! I’m glad to be mostly in cash right now, having taken down my short exposure dramatically. I’m considering buying FXY (Japanese yen) for a carry trade unwind play and perhaps URE/UYG to hedge my SRS/SKF exposure (and as a short term trade).
Anyone know the largest intraday Dow swing in percentage and point terms? Perhaps a new record will be set today?
HCF
October 10th, 2008 at 10:22 am
…a little off topic but just saw this. Any guesses to what October will bring?
S&P500 YoY
10/07-10/08 ?
9/07-9/08 -23.71%
8/07-8/08 -12.97%
7/07-7/08 -12.91%
6/07-6/08 -14.86%
5/07-5/08 -08.51%
4/07-4/08 -06.53%
3/07-3/08 -06.91%
2/07-2/08 -05.42%
1/07-1/08 -04.15%
October 10th, 2008 at 10:23 am
My guess is maybe 375 – 400. It was a HELLUVA buy at that double bottom at 90 a few weeks ago.
Hard to tell, IIRC the swaps they use were still legal during the short ban? ProShares issued a press release to that effect IIRC… It was never clear to me if they were forced to cover, and the fact that they stopped issuing new shares meant the ones that were there should have gone up, unless there were underlying contracts that weren’t too transparent..
For me, it was more about the belief in the bankrupt (moral and literal) banking ’system’ and its eventual comeuppance.. And with ETFs, it makes it a little easier to remain solvent longer than the market remains irrational..
But when the government comes in to legislate and reward irrationality? I clap my hands, show my sleeves, and walk away from the table to a nice stiff drink.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Where on the web is Bush’s “speech” being streamed?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:25 am
FXP WTF?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Intra-day put/call hit over 2.0 this a.m.
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
(You’re welcome…!)
October 10th, 2008 at 10:26 am
The dip on the open was pretty spectacular, but the panic bottom happens when this snap back rally fails to follow through in a straight line. If we bleed off all morning folks are gonna get really worried. I’ll be anticipating a much bigger rally, but we may need to build a little more fear fuel intraday.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:27 am
CNN Live is streaming it.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:27 am
P.S. Gold is selling off.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:29 am
i’m pretty surprised that so many of you think we’ll have a V bottom… i think we may have a dead cat bounce – but we’re not going to see a 50% rally in the SPX that lasts…
and i love the comment about buying puts on the SKF… talk about hair of the dog – LEVERAGE baby!!! lever up those leverage instruments! that’s what got us into this mess… why doesn’t Profunds just make an ultra-ultra short etf that returns double the return of the SKF!?!??! when does it end?
does anyone have a concrete picture of the risks of buying GLD/SLV etf vs actual physical bullion?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Price/Peak Earnings for the S&P 500 is currently around 10. In previous market crashes 1919 and 1929 it fell below 5. In 1980 it fell to around 6. We really could have another 40% rout from here. Scary stuff. From this metric the S&P 500 could easily drop to 550-600.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:30 am
P.P.S. Russell 2000 index hit .618 ratio at its minimum today (473.47 / 760 = .622).
October 10th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Do you think W understands anything he is talking about?
Guess we will see a plunge since there’s nothing new. Only 15%-20% believe his vague promises anymore.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Venezuela has order McDonald’s to close while they examine their books. This is definitely a black swan event
….I never expected anything to be Mcnationalized
Would you like fries with that Hugo?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:36 am
The Decider says we have the plan in place and it’s the RIGHT plan.
Pretty much a “__ck you”.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:36 am
MW: Initial Lehman Bros. CDS auction has midpoint of 9.75
Any ideas on this??
Why is Bush talking?? Markets have to do this alone. Roubini is calling for massive rate cuts to ZIRP. The zero hour approacheth…
October 10th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Political babbling — the my moron is better than your moron stuff — is RUINING this blog.
Dickless political types: please go foul your diapers elsewhere.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Jim Rogers on CNBC Asia this morning said that Bernanke and Paulson are mishandling this crisis.
Rogers says we are just priming the pump for another inflationary period down the road. I hope Obama ( if he wins ) sends Bernanke packing and brings in a non Friedman type.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Retest of 875 area…. is that an abyss down there??
October 10th, 2008 at 10:45 am
@leftback, i’m trying to find out what the 9.75 midpoint means… is it a yield? based on the drop in the indices, i’m betting it’s not good as i don’t think the market pays any attention to bush.
see what’s happening in treasuries? i’m curious to see if this plays out with a dollar drop as well.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:45 am
does anyone have a concrete picture of the risks of buying GLD/SLV etf vs actual physical bullion?
Posted by: kid dynamite | Oct 10, 2008 10:29:05 AM
kid d,
sounds like you already know the answer: one is Paper, the other: a Hard Asset.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Thanks for the Lehman info. Does that midpoint mean the auction is going about as expected?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:48 am
yikes! it means they get 9.75 cents on the dollar… so the rest .90 needs to be paid out by the CDS underwriters? PIMCO is one.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:49 am
If he didn’t have a new idea this morning, should have kept his mouth shut…merely rehashed what was already decided didn’t do a damn thing…and not taking questions?
How did this guy get through Harvard?
The one in Boston, right???
October 10th, 2008 at 10:51 am
F is green, wants to trade higher, thought I would mention that.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:52 am
that harvard degree was bot… just like his yale degree… you know that.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Mark:
To the extent that the political leaders have/are affecting the crisis either way, I believe their performance and effects are fair game.
Even the traders on CNBC last night said they wish he wouldn’t speak during trading hours. What he just said was more of the same ole, same ole. It only adds to the feeling that nothing is really happening behind the scenes.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:53 am
does anyone have a concrete picture of the risks of buying GLD/SLV etf vs actual physical bullion?
Posted by: kid dynamite | Oct 10, 2008 10:29:05 AM
The question you need to ask yourself in a quiet moment, kid d, is: “At this point in time, with the VIX hitting 70+, and the intraday put/call hitting 2.0, and the U.S. President openly discussing a complete collapse of the financial system, and panty-waste political pussies wetting themselves on The Big Picture blog…why, oh why isn’t gold at it’s all-time high and running north?”
Short answer: Because it’s an asset.
Long answer: The battle between cash-seeking major gold-holders selling and retail gold-buyers buying is clearly not being won by the buyers.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:54 am
@ kid dynamite:
The precious metal ETFs are supposed to be backed by physical holdings. They have external auditors verify their inventories. SEC oversight as well.
IMO a lot of fear-mongering out there appealing to cynicism, but that’s just me.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Yes, the 9.75 cents was less than expected… here’s more info
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/10/lehman-bonds-priced-lower-than-expected/
October 10th, 2008 at 10:56 am
No question! Buy physical over paper.
Now when you do you will learn a few new things.
1. The current price over spot is $100 – $125.00 over spot.
The Conex (COMEX, I mean, I think) and LME are near collapse and have no bearing on physical price.
2. There is no Gold or Silver bullion to be found.
If by chance you can locate any, buy, buy, buy.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Things that make you go Hmmmmm….
….cnbc “talent” absolutley giddy when the market turned green this morning;
….cnbc “talent” declaring “this is a textbook bottom”;
….cnbc “talent” repeatedly quoting their guests that called this morning THE bottom (yes, the same folks that have been calling bottoms e-v-e-r-y time they appear!).
Don’t we sorta need all those people to at least appear to be humbled before the market gods are through?
Don’t we first need a segment on shorting stocks, too?
Or has two years of this nonsense made me cynical?
jw
October 10th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Posted by: Transor Z | Oct 10, 2008 10:54:43 AM
TZ,
I dare you to say the same things, which would be, technically, True, about the ‘banks’ that have been cratering…
minor mod= physical assets to assets of value..
take your ‘fear-mongering’ phrase, and do us a favor, phase it out..
October 10th, 2008 at 11:03 am
TED = 4.51
Perhaps “suppositories” needs to be added to the financial lexicon.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Please read the prospectus(es) on GLD and IAU…
it’s my understanding that GLD does not have to own physical gold. it can be paper gold and derivatives. of the two ETFs, goldbugs favor IAU… they believe GLD is a tool of the gold cartel/central banks.
CEF is gold and silver in a vault in Canada, which is another option if you don’t want to buy the miners (gold in the ground.)
October 10th, 2008 at 11:06 am
The only up side to this whole debacle is seeing the sh$t get knocked outta the g-d cheerleaders like Brian Wesbury. This knucklehead never saw it coming and last month had the chance of recession at 10%.
A buddy of mine told me Dow 8,000 back on Monday. I’ve got to call him back and get a fresh update already.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:07 am
R. Timm:
i look at price to peak EPS also, got it from hussman’s website. i’m thinking of taking the most recent peak of about $85 in 2Q07 and adjusting it down $20 (financials were $40 of the $85, i’m gonna assume 50% of financials EPS goes away for good). So peak EPS was closer to $65. So PE on peak EPS is still about 13.5x. Still rich.
i don’t know if i’m being way too conservative because the peak to peak concept (in theory) already accounts for sectors of the economy that have disappeared in the past.
who bloody knows.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:09 am
@Mark: “panty-waste political pussies wetting themselves on The Big Picture blog.”
Who, exactly are you referring to on this blog? Your comment is a little over the line and not at all accurate IMO. Don’t think anyone on this blog is panicking at all. I know I’m not. I actually feel oddly serene right. It’s only money and money does not define me. It’s all about priorities. I just think we’re all fascinated by what’s going on.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:09 am
In advance of the LEH CDO thread.. Any chance large #s of these swaps could be owned by naive sovereign funds, and that (say) Chinese dollars could come back to pay them off?
A prole can dream…
(and naive/foolish government employees getting burned by derivatives is not beyond the realm of imagining…)
October 10th, 2008 at 11:15 am
I am watching price action not CNBC. F and WB trading dry.
Gold solid now at $900.
Roubini is talking about ZIRP. Anyone want to get all excited about macroeconomics here while we wait for the next discontinuity?
My stops are set at the morning lows now, if we go through there it’s all over.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:15 am
I got my degree from “Harvard on the Boulevard”.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:16 am
@ Mark E. Hoffer:
No way in hell would I say the same thing about the banks! lol
I apologize for the “fear-mongering” comment. It was directed at retailers, who have been advancing conspiracy theories for the last few years about ETFs, not at people here who are inclined to go with the tangible asset at this point in, well, history.
If there’s a run on physical and there are insufficient reserves backing the paper, my friend we are all F*cked (including to an extent BR, I should note).
I don’t have any insights into whether there’s sketchy off balance sheet BS going on at SSG or elsewhere. Peace.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:16 am
re: GOLD: do you guys realize that the GLD actually holds physical bullion? they don’t trade futures! prospectus here:
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/file/stg/pdf/SPDRGoldTrustProspectus.pdf
i’d be very surprised if it would be more efficient for me (price, time and liquidity wise), as a retail buyer, to try to go get a better price than the Trust manages to get.
Now, the SKF/SDS on the other hand, DO carry significant risks – people have the SKF all wrong – it’s not a supply and demand issue: the SKF shouldn’t trade higher when Profunds stops issuing new shares – the problem was that the short sale ban basically made it impossible (or difficult) for them to achieve their investment goals of -200% financial return, because they couldn’t execute their hedges… there are also all sorts of fears about counterparty risk with their swaps that they use…
i would guess that the SDS is much lower risk from a breakdown of performance perspective – because it’s much easier to just trade S&P futures which are listed, and require no specific counterparty risk or short sale enabling.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Dr. Noisewater, interesting thoughts you have but read this at Bloomberg…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aa6nmsv7BakE&refer=bond
Apparently we’ll find out more after 2PM ET today.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Assuming that world will not end, assuming that the 21st century financial system will not be replaced by medieval systems of trade and finance , I am willing to bet and betting that we are pricing AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, MSFT at a level that already prices in a severe contraction on GDP to the scale of 5-7%.I am buying.Good to know Barry is doin the same.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:25 am
the generational double-top is in, earlier than even i thot, so now it’s SPY 400 sometime next year, maybe 2010 latest, we’re going to take out all the bullshit from 1995 on, everything from Clinton/Gingrich to Bush/Cheney. the world will be a sad place for a couple years, then we’ll see what our leaders, or more likely, what real people want to make of their situation. they can no longer rely on Wall St or Fortune 500 or either political party. we need a new playbook
October 10th, 2008 at 11:26 am
The world will not end. The CDS market may be suspended or disbanded but the world will not end. Jag is right, there are quite a few stocks in the green today which means funds are going shopping. Guys like Ken Heebner aren’t usually wrong for long.
It’s an absolutely gorgeous day out there in New York.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Posted by: Transor Z | Oct 10, 2008 11:16:21 AM
TZ,
there has been craziness promoted by many in the ‘Hard Asset’ camp, though, they’re not unique, sadly. There are charlatans in every profession, it’s almost Biblical: “They shall Always be with You.”
And, to the point about ‘the run’, yes, of course, but remember: “Prudent planning prevents pisspoor performance.” the 5Ps
October 10th, 2008 at 11:28 am
@leftback: Agreed. The world is not coming to an end, although many of us are in for a serious wake up call. I’m actually thinking of buying in very small increments here. Might add to my AAPL and GOOG positions. Again, very small buys with a long term time horizon on those. Might as well give it a shot.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:29 am
“The world will not end.”
No, but every major US Broker-dealer will; many major banks will; huge insurance companies will; many major corporations will.
A cyclical recession is one thing, a credit collapse is another. Protect yourself.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:31 am
> ….cnbc “talent” declaring “this is a textbook bottom”;
I think a lot of the CNBC folks have NO idea of the difference between the “textbook bottom” of a cyclical versus secular bear market. There are classic cyclical bottoms. Secular bottoms are each spectacular and unique in their own way.
Bottoms happen, THEN textbooks are written about them, not the other way around. Until then, we can only guess, trade, and employ a lot of risk control.
HCF
October 10th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Oil = $80, the XLE is off 10%.
I wonder if the Fed hawks are still worried about inflation?
October 10th, 2008 at 11:39 am
How crazy was the cheering on the floor as we climbed back to unchanged pre bush?
This shit is like a football game.
Can people with dry powder please buy?
Still seeing alot of 1000 share plus sell orders hitting the SPY…
October 10th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Market will rally if and when Steve Barry covers…
October 10th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Too many people were trying to call the bottom, and there are still too many people calling this the bottom. The problem is that the bottom probably won’t arrive until everyone stops expecting a bottom and instead expects further decline. Markets rarely behave how the majority of people expect them to because those expectations are already priced into the market.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
the man from Nantucket:
I’m a hussman investor and got the theory from him as well. He has great insight into the market but so far I my cash positions are beating my positions in HSGFX.
The problem with the peak earnings ratio is that the bottoms are so varied. Some bottoms have been in the teens like the early nineties and the dot com bust others as I mentioned were under 5. Based on this I’m going to throw up my hands and wait with cash on the sidelines.
I agree that profit in financials may never come back like this last credit bubble but I think the overall S&P will eventually have higher profit than before, as has so far always been the case in history.
I’m still holding my HSGFX and hope that Hussman’s timing improves.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Berlusconi: Leaders may close world markets (from Drudge)
Friday off!!! I’m buyin..
October 10th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
@ Adam – “Can people with dry powder please buy?”
Yes, I could. Both real estate and equities. But at “my” price, not at a phony price set by Wall St. or the government – and the more they interfere with me buying at “my” price, the longer this downturn will last.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
another hussman comment:
As a final note, the frantic attempt to acquire dollars during this panic has had an interesting impact on the U.S. dollar. In recent weeks, U.S. Libor (the interest rate paid on deposits of U.S. dollars at foreign banks) has soared above the Treasury bill rate, pushing the spread between T-bills and Eurodollars (the “TED spread”) to unusually wide levels. My impression is that as that bid to acquire dollars at any price subsides, we’re likely to see some very abrupt weakness in the value of the U.S. dollar. So part of the evidence of stabilization in the banking system will be an associated plunge in the U.S. dollar and fairly sudden strength in oil and commodity prices. That strength might only persist for a period of several weeks, until further evidence of ongoing recession develops. But over the short-term, greater financial stability will likely have the apparently strange side effect of dollar weakness.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Ha. You can always depend on the Italians to panic first….
Can we have Nouriel Roubini and Paul Volcker in charge of the IMF right now please?
Wally, thanks, I have my risk measured carefully and appreciate your concern for all.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Bloomberg reported that Berlusconi reversed those comments…
fwiw.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
America the Banana Republic
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/10/hitchens200810
The ongoing financial meltdown is just the latest example of a disturbing trend that, to this adoptive American, threatens to put the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave on a par with Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Equatorial Guinea.
Courtesy of George Bush and the bananas and with McCain/Palin you get more of the same…
October 10th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
OT:
@karen,
since there’s a ‘lull’ in the trading, did you ever get my clarification about that ‘misunderstanding’ in that thread, awhile back?
~
This, though: Markets rarely behave how the majority of people expect them to because those expectations are already priced into the market.
Posted by: Truth08 | Oct 10, 2008 11:58:07 AM
IOW: Markets move to make the most people wrong.. is, aptly, posted by “Truth”
October 10th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
I wish Mark Hains would wear his old corpsman helmet like he did back in 2000 or so. That was funny! Him and Rick are the only sane people left there.
this afternoon is going to wild!! If we are above 890 in the esz8, then we should be OK, under and ….haha look out below.
Maybe the Fed will come in and start buying 1000 lots in the pit.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Mark, i did, i did. thank you for checking.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
In case this might be of use to someone – these look like significant important levels to watch:
S&P500 850, 770, 750
DOW 7485, 7181, 6324
If the middle levels are breached look for some bouncing around the third level listed above. After that its anyone’s guess.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Yesterday on MSNBC’s Hardball, Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA) brought up McCains Home Resurgence Plan in a heated exchange with Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), a McCain surrogate, who clearly hadn’t been clued in to the changes. She kept insisting to Moran, “Jim, you know that’s not the proposal”:
MORAN: Well, what I want to tell you is, this is insane. What Senator McCain would do is to have the federal taxpayer buy every bad loan at 100 percent of value, and then guarantee it.
WILSON: Jim, you know that’s not the proposal. […]
MORAN: His plan would pay 100 percent of the mortgage’s value. These mortgages are trading at 50 percent, sometimes 20 percent of value. Why should the taxpayer pay 100 percent, rewarding the banks themselves? That’s the problem. They’re not worth…
WILSON: No, Jim, mortgage-backed securities are trading at that low level.
MORAN: Look at the plan, Heather.
McCain wants more of the same for what Bush created i.e. “America the Banana Republic”
October 10th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
“Workin’ in a gold mine,
goin’ down-down-down.
Workin’ in a gold mine,
whooop! about to slip down…”
Spot gold price
October 10th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
jj: thanks – but technicals are for the rational traders and that’s not what is going on today, it’s all about fear. We just need the fear of not making money to supercede the fear of losing money…
October 10th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Release the Hounds!!!
Lets get some green on the screen folks.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
See you boys and girls (and nutless political wonders) at Gold $600.
Remember you heard it here…second.
(”First” is left as an exercise to the student.)
October 10th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Posted by: karen | Oct 10, 2008 12:32:41 PM
good to hear~
Posted by: km4 | Oct 10, 2008 12:21:19 PM
km4,
VF should be on most people’s reading list~
October 10th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
> FXP WTF?
I’m thinking exactly the same thing. FXI and FXP have both been down even though they are theoretically supposed to track inversely (long China vs. double short China). I have no idea… But I guess neither do the people in charge =)
HCF
October 10th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I keep predicting DOW 6,000 in 2009 – but I was wrong. Dow 6,000 in 2008
October 10th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Since I’m almost all cash, any reason not to buy SSS below $30 for a 5 – 10 year RothIRA trade. Got a 9% divy here…
October 10th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
We’re back under 8000 again, only this time it wasn’t a freak-out drop… it was a multi-hour process, which is much scarier in my opinion… and now we’re getting close to the no circuit-breaker time-period
October 10th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Dude, awesome call!
October 10th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
SSS order filled @ $29.20 & $29.1701, 1000 shares. We’ll see in 5 years if it was a good trade