Futures off 6.5%: Look Out Below!
By Barry Ritholtz - October 24th, 2008, 5:27AM
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US Futures are trading down 6.5% — thats limit down on S&P Futures — the percentage trigger where trading halts has been hit.
Looks like quite the free fall this morning — Dow Futures off 5%, following the announcement of a contraction of GDP in the British economy. A global sell off has ensued.
Stocks tumbled around the world. South Korea’s Kospi Index sank 10%; Japan off about 10%, and Europe Indices fell about 6%. The MSCI World Index lost 3.6%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 6.3%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 6%.
Will we hit NYSE circuit breakers today?
>
~~~
Of course, today is a day I will be traveling — I won’t be able to update until later this morning.
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October 24th, 2008 at 5:37 am
Time to get greedy?
Who do you like?
October 24th, 2008 at 5:40 am
PCP
COH
NKE
GNTX
HANS
FLR
JEC
KBR
CF
ADP
PAYX
APOL
RHI
ADSK
PMTC
ADBE
MSFT
ATVI
BMC
CTXS
SAP
JKHY
CHKP
TDC
DELL
QLGC
LXK
ACN
CTSH
INFY
SAY
NTRI
AMAT
ASML
NVLS
VSEA
WFR
ADI
INTC
MXIM
OVTI
SMTC
TXN
NITE
BEN
SEIC
TROW
NDAQ
LFC
PHLY
MNST
NTES
PCLN
IR
BIIB
ENDP
FRX
NVS
AMED
STJ
ZMH
ABI
HOLX
BVN
ATW
ESV
PTEN
BJS
MDR
CVX
STO
XOM
HOC
OXY
ORLY
FOSL
SPLS
AEO
ANF
ANN
ARO
GES
GPS
WAG
BBBY
WSM
BJ
CHT
GRMN
NOK
QCOM
CHL
TKC
KNX
October 24th, 2008 at 6:02 am
Hi
any comments about that :
“What Credit Crunch?
| Peter Klein |
I’ve talked before about the wild claims about credit markets being “frozen,” sound investment projects that can’t be funded, worthy borrowers who can’t get loans, and all the rest, claims that are totally unsupported by theory or empirical evidence. Nobody, least of all Paulson and Bernanke (or their ostensibly free-market supporters, such as Mankiw and Cowen), has bothered to provide any data to support these claims. A new paper by three Minneapolis Fed economists, “Four Myths About the Financial Crisis of 2008,” shows that the wild claims are virtually all false. The data show, for example, that despite a rise in inter-bank lending rates, actual lending between banks is about the same as before, and lending between banks and firms and individuals has risen, not fallen, during the crisis. (Loan volume is a better indicator than interest rates, which reflect default risk.) This analysis is based on publicly available data, the same sources I pointed to before. Why is nobody paying attention?
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf “
October 24th, 2008 at 6:02 am
“Here comes the Rain, Again..”
BR,
focus on what’s Important, Travel safely, leave the Tx/Rx devices in the ‘Off’ position, if at all possible, and enjoy the Color of the Season..
Past that, remember, on this great sphere of ours, the shortest course between two points is a Great Circle..
http://www.gb3pi.org.uk/great.html
October 24th, 2008 at 6:08 am
Stock Futures are LOCK LIMIT DOWN. I posted last night that the Yen was exploding up vs. Euro…Euro was down like 4 yen…woke up and it is now down 11!!! Dollar also surging vs. Euro…looks like Europe has caved.
Any “Bears turned Bullish” flipping back to bearish yet? If they are stubborn, this will be FUGLY. They better capitulate soon so market can bounce.
Disclosure: Fully long QID.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:10 am
I think that I just soiled my PJs…. and I’m a BEAR, imagine that….
Best regards,
Econolicious
October 24th, 2008 at 6:12 am
Fundamentals as bad as ever.
Here in architecture land layoffs are now ripping through every office I know of- we just did a 20% downsizing- we’ll no doubt be at 50% come the New Year.
Anyone who thinks they see a bottom don’t know bottom.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:15 am
Chris,
The credit crisis is actually a credit “MORASS” – a Much Ordered Return To Actual Systemwide Sanity. As I said before (search this blog with my name and morass) what we have seen so far, has not even started the credit contraction…it is just credit expansion hitting a brick wall. Total credit per the Fed’s data actually was still rising a bit as of 6/31/08. Wonder what the contraction will be like…I think they call it “deflationary Depression.”
October 24th, 2008 at 6:31 am
SB,
those ‘Bullish Bears’ are going to get ‘Steered’, just like their Bovine counterparts..
Good thing ‘Truck Nutz’ are so popular, they could, probably, soak up the extra supply..
http://www.trucknutz.com/
October 24th, 2008 at 6:31 am
Steve..nice posts …except..you ain’t cheerin me up…was trading that Eur/JPY this am spot ..one 4 hour bar..850 pips ..was the quickest drop I’ve ever seen..you have been spot on ..nice work..
October 24th, 2008 at 6:32 am
I’ll be buying today. We have reached the opposite of euphoria and I’ve been waiting.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:46 am
This negativity may not even last as long as to create the bargains I’m looking for but I can hope.
Steve you have to get rid of QID. It keeps losing money each day with this volatility.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:47 am
JB, feel free to choose, though, until SB starts buying, I’m still sellin. Bids are Scarce, there are huge pockets, as in air, first, below these #’s..
October 24th, 2008 at 6:55 am
I’m waiting with bids all over the place way below the current bids.
I made out like a bandit when I chose to short the korean market with put options.
Now I’m ready to put more cash to work. I will be supporting (maybe by myself, lol), GLW, GRMN, LOW. I’m looking to purchase these down 10% – 80% from current levels.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:56 am
Why don’t they have “limit ups’” if there going to have limit down. How many different forms can moral hazard come in?
October 24th, 2008 at 7:00 am
I believe SB will go down with his ship. I recommended sell on QID at the peak. 6% or more daily volatility will kill that fund value in short order.
The other thing we don’t know is who owes the credit swaps on any and all short funds. If it’s the hedge funds they likely won’t get paid as the hedge funds own ~70% of the complex derivatives.
If the market gets sold off hard, look for short funds to lose gains and go the opposite way.
The problem is if no one trusts the stock market then the short funds will get sold as well along with everything else.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:02 am
John…read my post from the other day…since 9/2, up to Wednesday, QQQQ down 33%, QID up 78% plus paid a 20 cent dividend. I am very happy.
When I have time tonight, I will start an essay on the “End of the Greenspan-led Economic Regime” and what needs to replace it. Hint…there will be no Fed and gold will play a big role.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:04 am
I stand corrected – did not know that there are limit-ups. Just heard them mention it on CNBC
October 24th, 2008 at 7:08 am
Barry you’ve owned QID since a year ago if I’m remembering right.
That means if you’ve cost averaged you own QID somewhere between $36-55.
That’s not the gain you claim by any means.
Chances are good you will not get what you are looking for.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:09 am
There is one thing the savants have been saying lately that bothers me some…many have now come into the L-shaped recession camp…but at least in my mind, there is very little difference in an L-shaped recession and a depression…
I guess in missed that memo…
October 24th, 2008 at 7:09 am
John,
Good luck
October 24th, 2008 at 7:14 am
About time for another interest rate cut
October 24th, 2008 at 7:16 am
10% sell off these days is just a bad day,
we need something like 30% sell off to qualify as a panic type of a day.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:17 am
Someone get a BIG hat for Art Hogan to eat.
How this guy continues to draw a paycheck amazes me.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:18 am
Yeah, if today is a crappy as it looks like it might be, then this is a great time to buy … even international Asian stuff. Even if it drops more, then there is still a huge amount to be made once the liquidations stop. Man, free cash on the pavement just laying around to be picked up.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:18 am
Good luck Steve.
I was watching C-span last night. The paper trail went like this:
Investments went to hedge funds.
Hedge funds bought 72% of the banks dirty paper. While that paper increased in value hedge funds bought mostly commodities trying to increase the value of the paper they had by pushing inflation up.
So now we get hyper deflation. Same as the great depression era. With one major difference.
The average citizen is not as laden with debt as they were in great depression time. Great depression had 1:1 debt to asset or greater is my understanding.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:22 am
Morningstar has a report on huge withdrawals from mutual funds in Sept and the possiblity of bigger ones this month. Funds are selling to meet redemptions. They have no cash to buy at these or lower levels. They can’t support the mkt any better than hedge funds can. If institutional speculators are fully invested, they have no cash. I have cash, as do other individuals, but we’re not going to step in here and get slaughtered. Who’s going to support the mkt?
October 24th, 2008 at 7:34 am
Donald.
The Fed, the Treasury and the SEC otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team.
They will buy stocks of good companies. When people don’t see those fall the market will turn around.
We should know by history that mutual fund outflow means the public is panicked and this is the time we want to invest. Retail is always last. They will lock in their loss just like they did in 2000, 9/11 and prior.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:35 am
Steve Barry,
Not arguing with most of your recent BP commentary… but you’re dreamin’ about gold… and about doing away with the central bank.
You could also make your money denominated in hen’s teeth, but you can’t grow the hens fast enough, and their teeth are a real challenge to extract.
It is possible, although unlikely, that the Fed’s dual mandates will be modified to exclude its attempted use of monetary policy to stimulate economic output. Not only can it not succeed at that — never has, never will — it is prone to just the opposite… as we are seeing unfold in unbelievable real time.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:39 am
@ Steve Barry
thanks for the MORASS “tip”
October 24th, 2008 at 7:42 am
@John
Not sure, as of 12/31/2006 US DEBT/GDP was standing at 331.2% (total credit market debt source Ned Davis)way above the years 29 /30′s
Private domestique non Financial debt as % of GDP at 177.1% (Ned Davis)
Nowadays I wonder if one may finance a current account with derivatives?.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:46 am
John,
I don’t think the Fed or Treasury buy stocks to support the markets. They manipulate the money and currency mkts, but not equities, I think. Based on what they’re saying on CNBC, this likes a multi-day capitulation, and we’re in the middle of it. Light’s at the end of the tunnel. How long is the tunnel?
October 24th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Yes Phillippe that’s a problem. But mostly for China because they own our debt and they are forced to buy more otherwise we can’t buy Chinese product.
The debt can be fixed but we have to pull out of our wars. We can’t chase terrorists all over the world it doesn’t work.
We have the technology to find terrorist cells and blow them up by dropping remote bombs and that’s what we should do instead.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:50 am
Hey Barry,
Why does this always seem to happen on days you’re traveling? Can you post your travel schedule for the next month. I might go short at the close the day before you leave!
That’s probably as good an indicator as any.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Two schools of thought:
1. When everyone is running in the same direction, they’re running away from something dangerous – you should run with the crowd to avoid the danger you have not seen.
2. When everyone is running in the same direction, they’re running towards something potentially dangerous (a cliff, for example)- you should run against the crowd to avoid the danger you have not seen.
What do you do when everyone is running in different directions?
I’m standing still and defending my position.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Your bullish call is looking pretty smart now!!!!
October 24th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Anybody know the limits on gold and oil futures? Gold and corn are down a bit, but not the limits, I think. Gold’s down $22.50. It’s been known to move, what, $80 in one day? Corn’s down 20 cents; limit is 30 cents, or $1,500 per contract.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:00 am
I’m starting to think that CNBC should change the segment name from “Market Breakdown” to
“Markets Break Down”
This is going to make an interesting day!
HCF
October 24th, 2008 at 8:00 am
if Tri-Polar is a new term for y’all, and you think that ‘Gold’ hasn’t been discussed as serving as an ‘anchor’ for a new Monetary System, y’all haven’t been reading:
http://www.cfr.org
http://www.foreignaffairs.org
see:
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/search/search?Sort=Relevance&ArticleAuthor=&ArticleType=&Full+Text=gold+monetary+system
for starters. boys & girls it’s past time to put down the “Playper”, yon’ Fishwrap, and start reading about what is up, before we all go down..
October 24th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Remember the mantra of the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble? It’s different this time…..
Well, what if this bear market is really “different this time”? Every trader is looking at charts that tell them when to buy, but what if this time there is no bounce, no v-bottom, no end in sight. We clearly can’t get capitulation when 80% of the people on this site are putting in buy orders this morning.
Cramer’s advice that the days of buy and hold are over might be his best advice to date.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Marcus. I’m standing still. Looking for covered call trades in Jan options that give me 20% protection, take advantage of high volatility, return 80% if not called, 50%+ if they are. Simple strategy. I like simple.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Guess I’ll get rid of the other half of my SKF calls. Maybe even call it a year. I could retire on just the moves in the SKF this year.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Never mind all that. As a registered Republican, I want to thank, on behalf of mein Fuhrer McCain, all of those REAL Americans who put their faces in front of the speeding bus at the end of the trading session yesterday. I am so proud of your pro-American exceptionalism and conviction in spite of all the global Socialist obsession on economic data. Yesterday was a glorious day, and no, we Republicans do not pay attention to NASDAQ. That index is full of companies run by undesirables in non-real parts of America.
By the way, I should clarify my prior posts that we Republicans are tolerant of other religions. We welcome not only Christians, but the other Caucasian religions, the Methodists and the Catholics.
(And thanks wunsy for your nice comment.)
October 24th, 2008 at 8:10 am
I guess you bottom pickers are kind of freaking. That’s why they describe it as catching falling knives. Say what you want about Roubini, but he’s been amazingly prescient; from yesterday:
“We’ve reached a situation of sheer panic. Don’t be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days” and “Things will get much worse before they get better. I fear the worst is ahead of us.”
The chart of the day at Bloomberg says Dow 5000, which would be 65% off the all-time high. Can’t happen? Japan’s down 80%, and they’re a much, much stronger country than the U.S. — good infrastructure, high savings rate, good education, AND they didn’t send all their manufacturing overseas — so Dow eventually down 65% may turn out to be conservative.
Keep trying to catch those knives, and you’re gonna get really sliced to ribbons.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Question, those percents don’t match with the point values. 10% right now is around 820 points. So is the circut breaker at 820, or 1100?
Thanks.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Two weeks ago I wrote that the 10/10 low would not hold because we did not have bullish RSI divergence and we did not have a complete wave count. Today and/or Monday we should achieve these two major necessities to achieving an intermediate term bottom.
The yen actually achieved a Wave V = Wave’s I-III target this morning and then reversed from that level. Crude oil hit it’s 61.8% retracement of the ENTIRE bull market move, so it should theoretically get some kind of bounce from the 62-63 level. So, there are other big markets that are at key pivots which confirms we’ll see at least an intermediate term bottom in the next few days, if not today.
I chose to be short futures/short puts (synthetic short call posn). I’ll be buying back those futures soon and go to a short put posn on the sp500 futures very soon. Will post when I get a bottom target.
- AT
October 24th, 2008 at 8:17 am
signs this isn’t the bottom this morning:
1) the first comment here is looking to buy the dip
2) the Fed is down 10% on it’s Bear Stearns portfolio – but that’s as of 9/30, and that’s marked to, in the Fed’s words, “FAIR VALUE!”!!!!!!! they may actually be down 50% now!
3) GE’s decision to access the Fed’s CP facility – if this was supposed to show that it’s a good thing and it will work – I didn’t get the right impression – i took away “GE is so screwed that they need the Fed to buy their CP or they are dead”
-KD
October 24th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Evidence-based technical analysis by David Aronson says technicals basically don’t work. In other words, charts mean nothing. Especially Elliot Wave theory. Think Black Swan. We don’t know what’s next.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:30 am
sidenote on GE stock….
When the $22.50 got busted, it was a sign of real trouble. Not only did the Oracle of Omaha buy there, but it was also the 61.8 retrace of the entire GE move, not so good. I’ve got $14-15 bucks as a key level to hold for GE…probably not a bad area to cover shorts or take a shot at going long.
Wonder how Berkshire’s $40 billion short PUT position on the SP500 feels? Ugh.
- AT
October 24th, 2008 at 8:32 am
CNBC talking up the market breakers and talking about how much down it could go, etc etc.
70% chance no crash today and we don’t go 10% down or more.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:33 am
AT, btw, you’ve been Yeomen’s work throughout this waterfall, as well.
Certainly, Well Done.
kd, yeah, that GE news was Grreat, no? no wonder Welch has been all over CNBC recently..
we’ll see how this plays out, but I’d be surprised if we catch ‘the bottom’ today, if this thing closes down, they might have to close it down Monday..the Swans, are going to be the 200.5k dead-enders, diving out into the air of ‘no bid’/'circuits are busy’/'please try your call again later’…
October 24th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Aaaarrrgghh. Sorry to post to often and a little OT.
I hate CBNC. Who are these tools they bring on? “This is a once in a lifetime event!”
Becky Quick: “Traders are breaking out their old handbooks to understand this…”
WTF?
People, we were locked limit down on futures way, way back in January of THIS YEAR. Their coverage of this market is nauseating. Give me more David Faber and Santelli. Faber had some pretty switched on sources a year ago….he was saying a year ago…”this is going to take a long, long time to resolve.”
- AT
October 24th, 2008 at 8:42 am
“notable market bears recently turned bullish”….ouch
this is not the garden variety selloff…this is bigger than anyone could ever imagined. S&P 500 heading for 500!
Why didn’t i just listen to Creamer????
Jim Creamer vindicated once again.
The guy is a genuis
October 24th, 2008 at 8:57 am
On second thought, crappy international asian and bric stuff will still suck long after the USA and Europe bottom. I’ve got my eye on them, but not until things start to settle out in a few weeks at the earliest.
I’m still salivating about the idea of putting a few percent (5% more or less) into something traditional that has been pounded mercilessly. The other part of me is thinking, “No, there’s still a few more panicky hedge fund managers and their terrified clients who will bail before the end of the month.”
I’ll decide before the close.
Question:
——————
Of those with a large cash position, what are you doing in this field of opportunity.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:58 am
AT-
above, I meant ‘doing Yeomen’s work’
also, if GE doesn’t hold that 14-15 range, I could see it going AIG, yes, file under: Ripley’s, but their Fynuance Unit has gotten it’s face ripped off..
October 24th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Black monday or black tuesday….
keep your powder dry my friends
Spy trading like we are off 80 S&P points
Watch the Fed come in for a 100 basis point cut, probably at 9:00. Temporary bounce at most…
October 24th, 2008 at 9:09 am
what is remarkable is all of those pundits that where bearish back in 2005, 2006, and 2007, now all of a sudden are bullish after three months of declines, like that would change what is ailing the system….
cracks me up…
October 24th, 2008 at 9:15 am
this thread sentiment overall … imo everyday folks will hold until required to cash out for bill paying because they are tired of the game hall and are searching for more options. When individual cash out is required they will proceed with attitude of “for the kids” mentality.
I have a question … when the speed bumps kick in; can anyone withdrawl buy or sells in that 1 hr time period? is there a cost to withdrawl an order?
October 24th, 2008 at 9:19 am
may i reiterate: S&P 500, meet your namesake, the number 500. soon.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:26 am
CME equity futures limits are here:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/files/EquityIndexPriceLimitGuide.pdf
Limits down for full day are 30%.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:43 am
When the 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 SMA is trending down, how can anyone ever think about buying now?
October 24th, 2008 at 9:45 am
VIX at 85…
October 24th, 2008 at 9:50 am
“They better capitulate soon so market can bounce.”
This “capitulation” talk is just stupid. Yeah, we’ll have counter-trend rallies along the way, but the market could be making new lows for YEARS. Again, look what happened to Japan. Their market has been headed down for nearly 20 years, and STILL headed lower!
October 24th, 2008 at 9:50 am
There in buying…doesn’t look like a bottom to me.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:08 am
I was able to scoop up CEG below $23/share.. Berkshire’s Midamerican is going to buy it at $26.50.. So this sounds like a decent discount..
Of course if CEG reached $25.50 -26.00 i will be a seller..
October 24th, 2008 at 10:31 am
The circuit breakers are set once per quarter. So they are based on what the Dow was trading at in July. They will get reset lower at the end of October. For reference, the point values for today are 7591, 6491, and 5341. Which correspond to about a 13%, 26%, and 40% drop.
I think most investors that are in cash now are not looking for a buying opportunity. I stopped opening new positions and sold all my mutual funds when the short selling ban was enacted. Now I’m waiting until after the election to start short-term trading again. I might decide to wait even longer by then. My IRA is almost entirely cash (I left about $500 in stocks to avoid the hassle of completely closing a fund, which is probably only about $300 now). I think the general public has either held on through the decline or else they are deciding to never buy stocks again. People are slowly moving from the first group to the second. The general public won’t be buying stocks for a few years probably. They’ll start slowly buying again after the SPX gains more than 15% a year for a few years.
If you want to know how to spot the bottom of a secular bear market, read “How to Profit from the Coming Bull Market” written in 1982. Go to your library and read through investment books written in the late 70s to early 80s. Stocks were a minority investment at the time. Most people had given up on ever owning stocks, and most institutions were primarily invested in bonds and cash. It’s not different this time, you just have to look back further to see a similar period. People are going to go overboard on risk aversion, just like they went too far in risk-seeking.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:42 am
How much of this is year end book flushing?
Also, has anybody tried to throw a penny bid at a no bid stock? Are those chances out there?
October 24th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Don’t despair guys, this article from CNBC.com says we are on the cusp of a new bull market….
http://www.cnbc.com//id/26653874
HISTORY POINTS TO A NEW BULL IN LONDON.
“Since then we have been getting absolutely horrible news week after week, and guess what, the market is about 300 points higher.” Market Historian David Schwatz said in an interview…
OH…wait a minute…this bit of cheerleading was published Sept. 11…
As Roseanne Roseanna Danna would say,” Never mind…..”
October 24th, 2008 at 10:48 am
As I have repeated many times, until you vaporize all the malinvestment that occured in the Credit Bubble, you are pissing on a 5 Alarm Fire. Hank needs a new Facility called, “S.O.O.L.”, not to be confused with SOUL which he sold long ago, which is an anacronym for Shit Out Of Luck. Quit bailing Hank, you are already in the water fool.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:52 am
@Spectre:
In the South we already use SOL..but we call it shit outta luck…
October 24th, 2008 at 10:54 am
I wish Bernake would just cut rates to zero already; then the Fed can finally stop pretending it can do anything meaningful except get out of the way.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Why would anyone bother buying equity when you can now buy senior LBO debt at 65c in the $? If you assume 70% recovery, current prices imply >90% default rate. Historically it’s been more like 1-2%, and the more pessimistic forecasts only predict an uptick to ~5%. Unlevered equity-like returns (~20% p.a.) for a fraction of the risk.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:15 am
One short story from this weekend, then I have to travel too.
I went to my hometown last weekend, laughed and giggled and saw many of my old buds…
I was talking with a friend of mine that I played fast pitch softball with when I was attending college, this was summer league, and he is still in my hometown and has several small businesses, and continues to do well. He and I were talking about the election and the economy and I told him about my cautious stance and how it hadn’t changed.
Well, one of the guys in my senior class who always seemed to feel he was better than most of us, came over (he manages money, wouldn’t you know..) and proceeded to tell us we were missing the opportunity of the century and that he had put his clients into aggressive stocks in the last 3 weeks. (True story)..He also pulled Warren Buffett out on us..
I am tempted to call him today, but that wouldn’t do any good. Besides we have a class reunion in November, and that would probably be a better time…
I am afraid many money managers, not just this fellow, often irk me with similar attitudes…I still sometimes make mistakes in my work (last one was 1983..) but even Warren Buffett missed the tech bubble money because he was afraid to play. Well I have been just patiently waiting too.
Good luck guys..
October 24th, 2008 at 11:32 am
traders disapponted no wooosh
New York needs your promised cash to play with
Genesis – There Must Be Some Other Way (Live)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QJHSM2D09c
Did anyone see that NewsHour piece on TrashOut last night. Empty a furnished home into a dumpster for ReRelease into the market. Jojo that was good one “a waste is a terrible thing to mind” in a disaster capitalism mindset.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Gee…
Sure are alot of buyers out there for it being the end of the world and all.
Sure is a big reversal for everything being about to fall apart.
But I’m sure the bears will say:
OH, it’s just short covering.
OH, it’s just the PPT at work again.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:51 am
@I-Man:
Huh?
October 24th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
@Dan:
SPX up 25 points off of earlier low, thats buying.
If this were the true panic selloff that takes us to new abysmal lows that the above posts (and most of the commentators on this blog) suggest then people wouldnt be buying period. Everyone would be selling, and thats not whats occuring.
October 24th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Chris, Chris, Chris… you probably have this quant notion that the “right” amount of credit is the amount that gets reliably paid back with interest, backed by “real” (3 dimensional objects). The Fed believes that everyone’s house should be going up in price, as well as all those LBO deals. It keeps the economy hummng… you make 35K and have a 2 million dollor mortgage – hey, don’t be unpatriotic. Debt, Debt, Debt!!! thats what powers America!!!
October 24th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Philippe @ 7:42:22 AM
“…as of 12/31/2006 US DEBT/GDP was
standing at 331.2% (total credit market debt source Ned Davis)
Where does this number (3.3:1) come from? I thought that U.S. debt was “only” 10 trillion.