Asian stocks appreciably higher — FTSE up 2.3%, Dax up over 7%! The Nikkei 225 was up 6.41%, while the Hang Seng made up all of yesterdays losses and then some — rocketing up 14.35%!
One caveat — the futes have not been a good guide as to what happens once markets open . . .
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Knowing that the vote over the weekend in Greece was really a referendum on Euro membership, a majority of the Greek Parliament said yes to staying. European Finance Ministers meet again on Wednesday to solidify the 2nd bailout package for Greece at the same time hopefully a deal is consummated between Greece and its creditors this week. The Greek 14.5b euro bond that matures on March 20th is up by 2 pts. The optimism that all will be completed and contained AGAIN to Greece has yields lower in Portugal, Spain and Italy. The iTraxx Financial Index is also narrower by...
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October 28th, 2008 at 7:12 am
BR re: DAX, maybe you should do a piece on Volkswagen. WWEx was talking Major Short Squeeze..
October 28th, 2008 at 7:21 am
DAX is funny: see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05bbd234-a4d2-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html for what happened. According to this hedge funds lost 20-30bln EUR shorting VW.
October 28th, 2008 at 7:40 am
jpo, nice link, FT really should pay more attention to their ‘home delivery’, in the U.S., they’d put a major crimp on WSJ’s circulation..
October 28th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Well. I guess BR made up some big gains this morning.
The bulls are back, where is Kudlow ??
October 28th, 2008 at 8:10 am
I see it as a nice pup before the GDP release and collapse coming this week. Use it wisely.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Damn, I pulled the trigger too late buying VDMIX, and didn’t get it in before the close. Sometimes I feel like a sucker buying a regular mutual fund when your order doesn’t execute until the next day’s close. I feel especially like a sucker lately when you see drastic changes in the last hour of trading. Am I paranoid or are hedgies and institutional investors able to see the pending mutual fund transactions queued for executing at the close and trade accordingly?
October 28th, 2008 at 8:34 am
How much of the Nikkei bump and its ripple effect on other markets can be attributed to news of Japan implementing its own short selling ban?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Japan-empower-regulator-ban-short/story.aspx?guid=%7B10966341-106B-4921-836D-D9FB4829E3DB%7D
October 28th, 2008 at 8:59 am
bargain hunting. what fools. back to reality Whirlpool to cut 5,000 jobs by end of 2009. these announcements are daily news and will continue to erode jobs and profits for a large swath of the fortune 500. short term its a nice time to load up on some shorts and make a small but quick profit after GDP announcement.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:03 am
As always, you have to decide how long the bounce will last. Will it be 15 minutes? A couple of weeks?
The things I look at say you want to be leaning a little long here. Every time I’ve done so the last couple of weeks, though, it’s taken a nice clean slice.
SPX and Dow with some support right here and positive divergences. Not so for the Qubes and Russell/Midcaps.
My gut says, take a shot on the long side during the morning contrahour.
Tiny positions, just trying to steal a little lunch money.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Isn’t the Fed meeting tomorrow? This pop upwards is in anticipation of a Fed rate cut (probably .5%), and then expect a fall shortly after the fact. I’m looking to short again on this.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:14 am
hi BR,
Is it because you are partially long that such news items are catching your attention?
Cheers
October 28th, 2008 at 9:24 am
srickant:
The extrememly high futures caught BR’s attention because it is unusual and it happened. Much like yesterday’s extremely short selling wave.
May be the beginning of the bounce, maybe not. We’ll see.
zack:
The bounce starting in Nov. 1929 last 5 months and took the DJ up 50%. I wouldn’t be buying any close in puts here except as protection. Ultrashorts will still have value in 6 months if they don’t blow up.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Query:
Woke up a half hour ago with this in my mind. Everyone is looking for a capitulation….
Do major bear market rallies start after a mini-capitulaton, or simply a drying up of volume so that selling pressure eases, panic eases, and there are no more margin calls. Then a relatively light number of orders can push prices up and you get a reverse snowball effect.
Anyone have easy access to data on this? I don’t. BTW, I’m not saying this is necessarily THE bounce Barry has been talking about, but it could be and I am certain there will be one.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Gut wrenching declines in US and global equity markets during October coupled with bond market outperformance will undoubtedly require MASSIVE monthly asset rebalancing by US pension funds –- rotating OUT of bonds and INTO stocks.
(ftalphaville)
October 28th, 2008 at 9:50 am
This afternoon will be a monster opportunity to go short. I think we’ll drop 10% by Friday
October 28th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Interesting comment from Hussman yesterday which I finally got around to reading. He echoes the sentiment that with so many people looking for a tradeable bottom (as opposed to the bottom, we may not have gotten there yet, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t scale in.
Hussman Market Comment
October 28th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Just a bounce, selling into the rally……just like yesterday.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:24 am
This won’t hold. Consumer confidence came in at ALL-TIME low, by far – 38 and change.
Had been expecting 51 and change. Quite a divergence. Look out below!
October 28th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Simmer down bears… this is natural, dont start poppin bottles just yet now ya heard.
Support @ 860 on the SPX.
Likely to be followed by a another shot at taking out resistance @ 880.
Consumer confidence dont mean jack, we all know its going to be shitty, and we all know that the market doesnt care at this point.
Looks like we’re doing the little 860-880 dance today, with folks selling each rally, and then we’ll get another 3:50pm dump, and do it all over again tomorrow.
Longs will be rewarded for hanging in there.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Mike in Nola
Thanks for the Hussman link it was good and well thought out.
I-man,
I agree.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:40 am
@I-Man: Agree that consumer confidence by itself don’t mean jack, but taking it into account with all of the other bad data/news, it means quite bit. We’ll probably get a dead cat bounce or two, but we’re headed down in a big way over the next few months. Once the holiday season hits, the deluge will begin.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Already down to +100 on the DJIA.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Yep, isn’t it obvious by now that nobody wants to hold equities and at the hint of any rally, mass selling takes place?
The “rallies” get shorter and shorter each time. Not a good sign obviously.
October 28th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
OK, took down lunch money when the Dow went just above 84.
All done for the day. But it’s guesswork, every day what it’ll do. Small positions, tight stops is the only way I know how to handle it.