Wow!  As the markets crater, Crude Oil has really gotten shellacked — down about 40% from the peak in July. 

While the SPX too a full year to lose that much, this has been 4 months:
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November Crude Oil Futures
Oil_nov_08

via Barcharts

Category: Commodities, Energy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

18 Responses to “Oil = $81”

  1. it’s called Ramp n’Crash.

    ‘Peak Oil’ is a hoax. It, and its GHG-induced AGW fellow-traveler are apiece.

    An excuse to add more Choke Points to our Economy, and more points of control on our Society.

  2. dead hobo says:

    See you at $60 a barrel. Maybe a little lower. Let this be a lesson to the morons who locked in long contracts at $140. You suckers were being played.

  3. Patrick Neid says:

    Crude is the silver lining, if there is such a thing in this temporary mess.

    It is an enormous free market injection of 100′s of billions of dollars worldwide into the pockets of everyone. As a bonus it puts shackles on dirtbags like Chavez.

    As to the shrieking that is taking place on Wall Street it’s the norm given the circumstances–but we have been here before Oct 73 to Oct 74 and the Panic of 1907

    http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/1895-1909.pdf

    http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/1970-1979.pdf

    http://www.paradigmbook.com/assets/DowHistory1970to1974.jpg

    The good news, the markets were approaching their old highs, in both cases, 1 1/2 years later.

    Meanwhile we carry on with the shrieking….

  4. DownSouth says:

    Mark E. Hoffer said:

    ” ‘Peak Oil’ is a hoax.”

    The cognitive dissonance inherent in this statement boggles the mind.

    DJIA one year ago: 14,000+
    DJIA yesterday: 8600

    Price of WTI one year ago: $86
    Price of WTI yesterday: $87

  5. Posted by: DownSouth | Oct 10, 2008 8:30:11 AM

    care to add some Reasoning to your (non-)argument?

  6. roo roo says:

    Demand?

  7. roo roo says:

    Demand?

  8. roo roo says:

    Demand?

  9. DownSouth says:

    OK, Mark E. Hoffer, let’s try this again:

    DJIA in Jan 2000: 12,000
    DJIA yesterday: 8600

    Price WTI in Jan 2000: $27
    Price WTI yesterday: $87

    What I’m saying is your schadenfreude is misplaced. Financial markets are in near collapse mode, people around you are losing thier life savings, and here you are crowing about the decline in the price of oil?

    You engage in compatmentalized thinking. You distort reality. The question you need to ask yourself is: “Why?”

  10. Posted by: DownSouth | Oct 10, 2008 9:10:26 AM

    listen, bud, I’m not ‘crowing about the decline in the price of oil’. as I was telling those, closer to me, over the Summer: “Don’t worry about the price of Oil/Gas, the Economy doesn’t work, it’s 3′s don’t add up, w/ Oil>U$D120. There’s good news: “‘Peak Oil is a Hoax’, and the price will come back down, and ‘bad news’: ‘by the time it does, and peep start to feel relief at the pump, the Economy will be in a WOS, with the ‘savings’ of peep, expended, at the pump.”

    Just another version of Pump n’ Dump.

    Don’t mistake me from some deluded Partisan, but, your choice of dates is telling. The Choke Points were put in place over ~35 years, and really crystallized in the ’90s–here: refinery capacity.

    DS, LSS: get over it, break the Frame, see The Big Picture, not some hacknyed Polaroid.

  11. Sean says:

    We WOULD HAVE been charted towards demand overwhelming supply, fulfilling the peak oil prophecy, but then enter the threshold of prohibitive cost and consumer discretion.

    Personally, I love it- finally the retail cost is what reduced demand by 3-5%, based on EIA figures.

    That gave Americans a taste of the benefits of reconsidering their own excess. Just wait until X-mas retail time.

  12. Sean,

    re: ‘Peak Oil ‘Prophecy”, are you being revisionist, already(?), misinformed as to the ‘orthodoxy’, or referring to something else?

    see: “Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. It is important to note that peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil.

    M. King Hubbert created and first used this theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.[1] His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have been shown to be descriptive with reasonable accuracy of the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries,[2] and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the Hubbert curve (that production stops rising, flattens and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles.

    Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be…”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
    link from:
    http://www.theoildrum.com/

    give me a break from this :WOULD HAVE been charted towards demand overwhelming supply, fulfilling the peak oil prophecy..hoary pablum..

  13. David says:

    Short oil since $145. Rare time I got near the top-tick.

  14. Anonymous says:

    The current price of oil (hell, even last year’s or next year’s price of oil) is not the last word (hell, it’s hardly even the first word) on whether the concept of Peak Oil is correct or whether we have reached it or not (if it exists). Both sides of this debate should stop talking about something of which they clearly have insufficient knowledge. You can parade all around and be as arrogant as you want, but that does not mean you know squat about “Peak Oil.” No one really knows what’s going to happen in the future. Delusions of grandeur…

  15. Ritchie says:

    A couple of words about the “Peak Oil” controversy:

    “Peak Whale”

  16. howard says:

    what a strange perspective.

    the supply of oil is finite.

    demand for oil has continued to increase.

    over time, this means that either higher prices will maintain supplies or lead to replacements.

    this is economics 101.

    it is the job, so to speak, of markets to reconcile supply and demand, and markets can and do overshoot, but the the core point – the finite supply of oil – remains the same.

  17. what a strange perspective.

    the supply of oil/sand is finite.

    demand for oil/sand has continued to increase.

    over time, this means that either higher prices will maintain supplies or lead to replacements.

    this is economics 101.

    it is the job, so to speak, of markets to reconcile supply and demand, and markets can and do overshoot, but the the core point – the finite supply of oil – remains the same.

    Posted by: howard | Oct 10, 2008 5:13:17 PM

    howard, stop wasting your time..past that, have a nice weekend aka Fin de Semana..

  18. Jay Cormier says:

    I can’t believe people are not talking about the conference this Wednesday in Houston. (See below)
    Also, New Jersey based Blacklight Power is building a commercial power plant. Amazing stuff.
    http://www.blacklightpower.com

    – Control Engineering, 8/11/2008
    Research Triangle Park, NC and Munich, Germany – Cold fusion will be a special keynote topic at ISA Expo 2008 in Houston in October and the following month electronica 2008 will highlight a variety of power supply technologies. Process sensors, instrumentation, and power protection and power control technologies are involved.

    Dr. David J. Nagel, research professor at George Washington University, will present the Keynote/Rimbach Lecture at ISA Expo 2008, Oct. 15 in Houston.

    The potential for a new sensing and instrumentation market with continued exploration and evolution of cold fusion technology will be discussed in the address, Instrumentation for Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, scheduled at 9 a.m.

    An excerpt focuses on the history of cold fusion: “Two chemists announced in 1989 that they could produce nuclear reactions and energy under ordinary conditions of temperature and pressure. These reactions were termed ‘cold fusion,’ even though no one really knew then what nuclear reactions might be occurring. In the years since 1989, hundreds of experiments have been done on what is now called Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, or the Fleischmann-Pons Effect. The total body of experimental evidence shows that it is indeed possible to produce nuclear reactions at low input energies. However, the field remains controversial and poorly understood. There is no satisfactory theory now for what has been observed.”

    Experiments require sophisticated instrumentation, including multiple sensors, and automated control of relevant conditions. Many believe that understanding, control, optimization and commercial exploitation of the new means to trigger nuclear reactions will follow in the future. If these advances occur, including significant scaling up in power levels, a new nuclear reactor industry will emerge. Sensing and control instrumentation will be critical.

    For 36 years, Nagel has had positions of increasing responsibility at the Naval Research Laboratory. He has written or co-authored more than 150 technical articles, reports, and book chapters. In 1998, he became a research professor of George Washington University. He is general chairman of the 14th International Conference on Cold Fusion (Washington, DC). His R&D career paralleled developments in MEMS and nano-technology. He is recognized as an authority in MEMS and nano-technology-based sensors and wireless sensor systems.