I can feel my bearish tendencies starting to come out of hibernation again….
CHICAGO PMI 37.8 Oct vs 48.0 consensus, 56.7 Sep
New Orders 32.5 Oct vs 53.9 Sep
Production 30.9 Oct vs 71.4 Sep
Employment 41.5 Oct vs 49.1 Sep
Inventories 56.5 Oct vs 37.7 Sep
Prices Paid 53.7 Oct vs 80.7 Sep
Scary doesn’t do this report justice. This abysmal report follows all other pre-ISM regional reports which carried the same tone – an abrupt change occurred in Oct. The plunge in the headline index left it at the lowest level since the 2001 recession. Demand side indicators collapsed. The 21.4 point drop in New Orders was the worst since the series began in 1968; the 40.5 drop in Production was the worst since its inception in 1946! The excess supply signal has never been worse – the New Orders-Inventories spread was -24.0. Price pressures eased rapidly – the 27.0 point drop in the Prices paid index was a record since 1946!
Consumer Credit outstanding fell $14.8b in Sept seasonally adjusted, almost $5b more than expected and marks the 11th month in the past 12 of declines. At $2.456T outstanding, it is 4.9% below the record high in July '08. After a flat reading in Aug, (didn't fall b/c of the CARS program), non revolving debt outstanding fell by $4.9B. Revolving (mostly credit cards) balances outstanding fell by $9.9B. To fully put into perspective today's data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn't include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2%...
October 31st, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Cartoons about sum it up. Although my personal 401k is only about 20% short of where the year started. Common sense pays off after all.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Would anybody here be opposed to Obama as President if he was not born in the U.S.?
That rule seems so arbitrary. Plus, he’s already been in the U.S. Senate so he’s earned his stripes.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:21 pm
I was trolling the web site and I found a dead link on the Managed Assets button but from the Job Listings tab.
http://thebigpicture.jobthread.com/blog/managed-assets/
Error 440 no link.
October 31st, 2008 at 10:41 pm
I can feel my bearish tendencies starting to come out of hibernation again….
CHICAGO PMI 37.8 Oct vs 48.0 consensus, 56.7 Sep
New Orders 32.5 Oct vs 53.9 Sep
Production 30.9 Oct vs 71.4 Sep
Employment 41.5 Oct vs 49.1 Sep
Inventories 56.5 Oct vs 37.7 Sep
Prices Paid 53.7 Oct vs 80.7 Sep
Scary doesn’t do this report justice. This abysmal report follows all other pre-ISM regional reports which carried the same tone – an abrupt change occurred in Oct. The plunge in the headline index left it at the lowest level since the 2001 recession. Demand side indicators collapsed. The 21.4 point drop in New Orders was the worst since the series began in 1968; the 40.5 drop in Production was the worst since its inception in 1946! The excess supply signal has never been worse – the New Orders-Inventories spread was -24.0. Price pressures eased rapidly – the 27.0 point drop in the Prices paid index was a record since 1946!
October 31st, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Did some of the usual suspects take the day off due to Halloween?
– Mannwich (formerly known as Jeff M.)
November 1st, 2008 at 2:10 am
No Friday night jazz? Yes, we are a rowdy bunch.