Comments on: Bretton Woods II http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:47:29 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/comment-page-1/#comment-126587 leftback Sun, 16 Nov 2008 00:00:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9601#comment-126587 @ H.T.: I am also short the long bond, and concur with your thesis. @ H.T.: I am also short the long bond, and concur with your thesis.

]]> By: neward http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/comment-page-1/#comment-126582 neward Sat, 15 Nov 2008 23:40:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9601#comment-126582 I golfed there with my parents in high school; it's a beautiful course and hotel with Mount Washington towering over it. I remember seeing the plaque in the lobby commemorating the conference, didn't have as much significance to me then as it would now, not having studied the Cold War or economics when I was there. I golfed there with my parents in high school; it’s a beautiful course and hotel with Mount Washington towering over it. I remember seeing the plaque in the lobby commemorating the conference, didn’t have as much significance to me then as it would now, not having studied the Cold War or economics when I was there.

]]> By: H.T. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/comment-page-1/#comment-126568 H.T. Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:51:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9601#comment-126568 @ left back I agree, but have settled on a macro thesis that i think will play well long term beside short the dollar--the biggest current bubble might be treasuries. I am short the LONG bond with TBT. 1. when we have more terrible auctions like last week to sell out debt, TBT wins 2. as foreign central banks have problems of their own and their capital reserves shrink [think Russia], TBT wins 3. if foreign banks want to diversify out of the dollar, TBT wins 4, if the medicine were getting eventually turns inflationary [as i believe--and yes i know we're fighting deflation know], TBT wins 5. a huge equity rally will draw money out of bonds, and TBT wins seems to me the only losing scenario is Great D part deux.... hmmm, scary @ left back

I agree, but have settled on a macro thesis that i think will play well long term beside short the dollar–the biggest current bubble might be treasuries. I am short the LONG bond with TBT.

1. when we have more terrible auctions like last week to sell out debt, TBT wins
2. as foreign central banks have problems of their own and their capital reserves shrink [think Russia], TBT wins
3. if foreign banks want to diversify out of the dollar, TBT wins
4, if the medicine were getting eventually turns inflationary [as i believe--and yes i know we're fighting deflation know], TBT wins
5. a huge equity rally will draw money out of bonds, and TBT wins

seems to me the only losing scenario is Great D part deux…. hmmm, scary

]]> By: Archiphage http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/comment-page-1/#comment-126552 Archiphage Sat, 15 Nov 2008 20:34:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9601#comment-126552 So many tooth-fairies, so little time. Maybe when central bankers and governments succeed in bringing the whole world to ruin at once, they will figure out that there is no such thing as something for nothing. Who am I kidding... they won't believe it even then. Humans have an infinite capacity to deny reality. That's the source of all my profits, but I might consider giving those up for a world filled with rational beings. So many tooth-fairies, so little time. Maybe when central bankers and governments succeed in bringing the whole world to ruin at once, they will figure out that there is no such thing as something for nothing. Who am I kidding… they won’t believe it even then. Humans have an infinite capacity to deny reality. That’s the source of all my profits, but I might consider giving those up for a world filled with rational beings.

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/comment-page-1/#comment-126532 leftback Sat, 15 Nov 2008 17:03:14 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9601#comment-126532 Baz, there should be two "t"s in Bretton Woods. Nice little ski area too, good place to learn. They should go back there and reinstate the gold standard after the market crash in January. BTW, a lot of nonsense doom and gloom was written on your Volatile Day post. Surely just risk aversion ahead of this G20 meeting. ~~~ <B>BR</b>: Fixed Baz, there should be two “t”s in Bretton Woods. Nice little ski area too, good place to learn. They should go back there and reinstate the gold standard after the market crash in January.

BTW, a lot of nonsense doom and gloom was written on your Volatile Day post. Surely just risk aversion ahead of this G20 meeting.

~~~

BR: Fixed

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/breton-woods-ii/comment-page-1/#comment-126525 leftback Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:49:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9601#comment-126525 I would just point out that most likely remedies for the current economic malaise are likely to involve printing and easing here in the US, and these are unlikely to be $ positive. A continued rise in the $ is not only unlikely but also inadvisable as it will accelerate the ongoing collapse of several emerging market economies. I would just point out that most likely remedies for the current economic malaise are likely to involve printing and easing here in the US, and these are unlikely to be $ positive. A continued rise in the $ is not only unlikely but also inadvisable as it will accelerate the ongoing collapse of several emerging market economies.

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