Another week, another drop in Oil, as the disinflationary deflationary cycle plays out.
Futures graphs via Barcharts.com
>Fur
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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November 20th, 2008 at 6:16 am
With Russia and the Gulf States, especially, sucking wind, who’s going to buy our T-Bonds?
Further, with Euroland, Japan, the UK, and the US, at the minimium, expected to run ‘massive economic stimulus’ a la Keynes’ prescription of Fiscal Deficits, who’s left to buy all those ‘Bonds’?
November 20th, 2008 at 6:50 am
Hey, there it is! Peak Oil happened in June 2008! I wonder how long before I see a 4 handle… could be before the end of the day at the rate things are going.
November 20th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Here on outer Cape Cod in New England, last summer the local heating oil distributors finally offered their “fixed-price” contracts for the coming season. They came in around $4.70 – $4.80 per gallon. Some people bought in to this without being able to participate in a lower price if were to occur. The spot price is now around $2.50.
November 20th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Some folks here are in the same spot with nat gas. Speculating in futures is not for amateurs.
November 20th, 2008 at 7:20 am
The Fed was right on inflation. Of course no one gives Bernankee any credit for standing his ground while much of the world was in panic. Kinda like the current situation.
November 20th, 2008 at 7:22 am
what they don’t understand is that if they locked they should have bought puts, and if they floated, they should have bought calls..
sorry, but an 8th Grader could wrap their minds around those ideas, too baa-d our consuMoo-ers are treated like 3rd Graders..
November 20th, 2008 at 8:56 am
The oil suppliers were selling participation in lower prices for another 25 cents per gallon – most people didn’t take it because they were convinced that prices were only going to go higher.
November 20th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Wow! There was the 4 handle, and it didn’t even take the whole day. Interesting times.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
I remember the chart Barry posted much earlier in the year showing the price movement of oil during the 70’s oil crises. I think the comment I made then was Look no further….
The difference between now and then are interesting. At that time everyone was not fully loaded with debt. There were actual shortages in supply of fuel. We had a wage price spiral. The worlds population was half what it is now. The baby boomer were just starting to have an impact on the economy.
We are headed for interesting times.