There was a lot of speculation that the big run-up was as a result of … well… speculation…
Now that the big financial institutions are out of business or on the ropes – is it possible that the crude price now is more accurately reflecting actual supply/demand than it did maybe 6 months ago?
As to a revival of SUV’s – with unemployment and foreclosures continuing to rise while credit/loan standards have been toughened, no, I don’t think the age of SUV’s will return anytime soon.
A bit off message, but in anticipation of a barrage of future speculation about Obama economic policy, I want to just point out that the oil market will, if he gets his way, become less and less important. And let’s just nip in the bud the inevitable bleating of cliches about tax and spend democrats, and dismiss the casual tautologies of the right: Obama DOES understand what got us here, and it wasn’t democratic policies. From a recent interview with Joe Klein:
“The engine for economic growth for the last 20 years is not going to be there for the next 20, and that was consumer spending. I mean, basically, we turbo-charged this economy based on cheap credit. Whatever else we think is going to happen over the next certainly 5 years, one thing we know, the days of easy credit are going to be over because there is just too much de-leveraging taking place, too much debt both at the government level, corporate level and consumer level.”
billy is right.
I think we’ll go to the Gore Marshal Plan regardless of the demand destruction on oil. The lower price isn’t going to change things. The oil men are on the way out. Internal combustion engines are not penis and breast enhancers, regardless of the ads. As a total infrastructure, all electric has ALWAYS been cheaper than oil since alternating current was invented. Standard Oil and Rockefeller sabotaged the early development of electricity. Fine, you don’t believe that we were suckered by big oil for 1oo years. That’s okay. Just the downstream health dividends from not having pollution side by side with travel and industry of the electric “smart” grid constitutes a huge saving. We don’t need any more stinking exhaust fumes and I would love to have a lttle more oxygen. How about you?
“Now that the big financial institutions are out of business or on the ropes – is it possible that the crude price now is more accurately reflecting actual supply/demand than it did maybe 6 months ago?”
I have heard the speculation flag run up more than I care to. However, if anyone has been unable to recognize the real demand destruction that the us auto manufactures are feeling at this very moment. SUVs are not as appealing as they once were. Oil prices crossed a threshold that let all consumers realize that oil COULD go to 200 and they adjusted their lifestyles accordingly.
Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later.
I note that all large construction/mining equipment runs on diesel. I don’t think earth movers, cranes, trucks, generators etc will use hybrid or any other alternate source in the foreseeable future. I assume this is true world wide and IMHO will be a factor in continuing demand for oil as the economy recovers. I think we are still looking at the basic formula wherein limited supply plus continuing demand = higher prices. Those who predict prices below $50.00 may also not be taking into consideration the income needs of the oil producing countries, which I have read is based on $100.00 oil. I agree with “Blackhalo” post of 11/7/2008 ” Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later.
While yesterday's US stock market close was poor, Asia and Europe didn't follow today as debt in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc... rallied, their CDS narrowed and stocks bounced. The Greek finance minister said January tax revenues came in above expectations and that spending was below target for the month and said "that means the deficit reduction for January is well within what we have promised." The euro is rising in turn. Also helping is the story that Trichet is headed to the European Union leaders summit a day early in order to address Greece's problems even as the Greek finance...
November 6th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
WOW!!!!
November 6th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Dude, not that it’s not still amazing, but that’s a ‘BRENT CRUDE’ chart….
November 6th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
I wish it would go as low as $30 for my Christmas present.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
There was a lot of speculation that the big run-up was as a result of … well… speculation…
Now that the big financial institutions are out of business or on the ropes – is it possible that the crude price now is more accurately reflecting actual supply/demand than it did maybe 6 months ago?
November 6th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Does that mean gas guzzling Detroit SUV’s are suddenly back in vogue?
November 6th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
like SINGER said…it should probably point out in the title of the post that it is brent crude not wti before people freak out.
November 6th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Where can I buy 2015 calls?? or is that puts?.
…Someone who will discover the difference one day.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
USD up=oil down. How much longer is the formula going to work?
November 6th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Welcome to deflation!
As to a revival of SUV’s – with unemployment and foreclosures continuing to rise while credit/loan standards have been toughened, no, I don’t think the age of SUV’s will return anytime soon.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Probably can still make a little money shorting USO.
Futures traders aren’t expecting the decline to go on forever:
December 2009 crude oil futures @ $71.45
December 2010 crude oil futures @ $77.51
November 6th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
DL,
you got odds that this Oil Price decline won’t be over until we see Backwardation in the Pits?
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=backwardation
November 7th, 2008 at 12:30 am
A bit off message, but in anticipation of a barrage of future speculation about Obama economic policy, I want to just point out that the oil market will, if he gets his way, become less and less important. And let’s just nip in the bud the inevitable bleating of cliches about tax and spend democrats, and dismiss the casual tautologies of the right: Obama DOES understand what got us here, and it wasn’t democratic policies. From a recent interview with Joe Klein:
“The engine for economic growth for the last 20 years is not going to be there for the next 20, and that was consumer spending. I mean, basically, we turbo-charged this economy based on cheap credit. Whatever else we think is going to happen over the next certainly 5 years, one thing we know, the days of easy credit are going to be over because there is just too much de-leveraging taking place, too much debt both at the government level, corporate level and consumer level.”
November 7th, 2008 at 2:59 am
billy is right.
I think we’ll go to the Gore Marshal Plan regardless of the demand destruction on oil. The lower price isn’t going to change things. The oil men are on the way out. Internal combustion engines are not penis and breast enhancers, regardless of the ads. As a total infrastructure, all electric has ALWAYS been cheaper than oil since alternating current was invented. Standard Oil and Rockefeller sabotaged the early development of electricity. Fine, you don’t believe that we were suckered by big oil for 1oo years. That’s okay. Just the downstream health dividends from not having pollution side by side with travel and industry of the electric “smart” grid constitutes a huge saving. We don’t need any more stinking exhaust fumes and I would love to have a lttle more oxygen. How about you?
November 7th, 2008 at 3:50 am
“Now that the big financial institutions are out of business or on the ropes – is it possible that the crude price now is more accurately reflecting actual supply/demand than it did maybe 6 months ago?”
I have heard the speculation flag run up more than I care to. However, if anyone has been unable to recognize the real demand destruction that the us auto manufactures are feeling at this very moment. SUVs are not as appealing as they once were. Oil prices crossed a threshold that let all consumers realize that oil COULD go to 200 and they adjusted their lifestyles accordingly.
Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Wake me up when you can economically store as much energy as a gallon of gas in something with the same mass.
November 16th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
I note that all large construction/mining equipment runs on diesel. I don’t think earth movers, cranes, trucks, generators etc will use hybrid or any other alternate source in the foreseeable future. I assume this is true world wide and IMHO will be a factor in continuing demand for oil as the economy recovers. I think we are still looking at the basic formula wherein limited supply plus continuing demand = higher prices. Those who predict prices below $50.00 may also not be taking into consideration the income needs of the oil producing countries, which I have read is based on $100.00 oil. I agree with “Blackhalo” post of 11/7/2008 ” Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later.