Comments on: Crude Oil = $57 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:10:06 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: goforth http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-126695 goforth Sun, 16 Nov 2008 19:30:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-126695 I note that all large construction/mining equipment runs on diesel. I don't think earth movers, cranes, trucks, generators etc will use hybrid or any other alternate source in the foreseeable future. I assume this is true world wide and IMHO will be a factor in continuing demand for oil as the economy recovers. I think we are still looking at the basic formula wherein limited supply plus continuing demand = higher prices. Those who predict prices below $50.00 may also not be taking into consideration the income needs of the oil producing countries, which I have read is based on $100.00 oil. I agree with "Blackhalo" post of 11/7/2008 " Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later. I note that all large construction/mining equipment runs on diesel. I don’t think earth movers, cranes, trucks, generators etc will use hybrid or any other alternate source in the foreseeable future. I assume this is true world wide and IMHO will be a factor in continuing demand for oil as the economy recovers. I think we are still looking at the basic formula wherein limited supply plus continuing demand = higher prices. Those who predict prices below $50.00 may also not be taking into consideration the income needs of the oil producing countries, which I have read is based on $100.00 oil. I agree with “Blackhalo” post of 11/7/2008 ” Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later.

]]> By: patrick http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124882 patrick Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:41:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124882 Wake me up when you can economically store as much energy as a gallon of gas in something with the same mass. Wake me up when you can economically store as much energy as a gallon of gas in something with the same mass.

]]> By: Blackhalo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124873 Blackhalo Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:50:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124873 "Now that the big financial institutions are out of business or on the ropes - is it possible that the crude price now is more accurately reflecting actual supply/demand than it did maybe 6 months ago?" I have heard the speculation flag run up more than I care to. However, if anyone has been unable to recognize the real demand destruction that the us auto manufactures are feeling at this very moment. SUVs are not as appealing as they once were. Oil prices crossed a threshold that let all consumers realize that oil COULD go to 200 and they adjusted their lifestyles accordingly. Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later. “Now that the big financial institutions are out of business or on the ropes – is it possible that the crude price now is more accurately reflecting actual supply/demand than it did maybe 6 months ago?”

I have heard the speculation flag run up more than I care to. However, if anyone has been unable to recognize the real demand destruction that the us auto manufactures are feeling at this very moment. SUVs are not as appealing as they once were. Oil prices crossed a threshold that let all consumers realize that oil COULD go to 200 and they adjusted their lifestyles accordingly.

Production will be cut, and we will be back to triple digit oil sooner rather than later.

]]> By: AGG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124872 AGG Fri, 07 Nov 2008 07:59:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124872 billy is right. I think we'll go to the Gore Marshal Plan regardless of the demand destruction on oil. The lower price isn't going to change things. The oil men are on the way out. Internal combustion engines are not penis and breast enhancers, regardless of the ads. As a total infrastructure, all electric has ALWAYS been cheaper than oil since alternating current was invented. Standard Oil and Rockefeller sabotaged the early development of electricity. Fine, you don't believe that we were suckered by big oil for 1oo years. That's okay. Just the downstream health dividends from not having pollution side by side with travel and industry of the electric "smart" grid constitutes a huge saving. We don't need any more stinking exhaust fumes and I would love to have a lttle more oxygen. How about you? billy is right.
I think we’ll go to the Gore Marshal Plan regardless of the demand destruction on oil. The lower price isn’t going to change things. The oil men are on the way out. Internal combustion engines are not penis and breast enhancers, regardless of the ads. As a total infrastructure, all electric has ALWAYS been cheaper than oil since alternating current was invented. Standard Oil and Rockefeller sabotaged the early development of electricity. Fine, you don’t believe that we were suckered by big oil for 1oo years. That’s okay. Just the downstream health dividends from not having pollution side by side with travel and industry of the electric “smart” grid constitutes a huge saving. We don’t need any more stinking exhaust fumes and I would love to have a lttle more oxygen. How about you?

]]> By: billy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124869 billy Fri, 07 Nov 2008 05:30:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124869 A bit off message, but in anticipation of a barrage of future speculation about Obama economic policy, I want to just point out that the oil market will, if he gets his way, become less and less important. And let's just nip in the bud the inevitable bleating of cliches about tax and spend democrats, and dismiss the casual tautologies of the right: Obama DOES understand what got us here, and it wasn't democratic policies. From a recent interview with Joe Klein: "The engine for economic growth for the last 20 years is not going to be there for the next 20, and that was consumer spending. I mean, basically, we turbo-charged this economy based on cheap credit. Whatever else we think is going to happen over the next certainly 5 years, one thing we know, the days of easy credit are going to be over because there is just too much de-leveraging taking place, too much debt both at the government level, corporate level and consumer level." A bit off message, but in anticipation of a barrage of future speculation about Obama economic policy, I want to just point out that the oil market will, if he gets his way, become less and less important. And let’s just nip in the bud the inevitable bleating of cliches about tax and spend democrats, and dismiss the casual tautologies of the right: Obama DOES understand what got us here, and it wasn’t democratic policies. From a recent interview with Joe Klein:

“The engine for economic growth for the last 20 years is not going to be there for the next 20, and that was consumer spending. I mean, basically, we turbo-charged this economy based on cheap credit. Whatever else we think is going to happen over the next certainly 5 years, one thing we know, the days of easy credit are going to be over because there is just too much de-leveraging taking place, too much debt both at the government level, corporate level and consumer level.”

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124863 Mark E Hoffer Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:34:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124863 DL, you got odds that this Oil Price decline won't be over until we see Backwardation in the Pits? http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=backwardation DL,

you got odds that this Oil Price decline won’t be over until we see Backwardation in the Pits?
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=backwardation

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124860 DL Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:22:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124860 Probably can still make a little money shorting USO. Futures traders aren’t expecting the decline to go on forever: December 2009 crude oil futures @ $71.45 December 2010 crude oil futures @ $77.51 Probably can still make a little money shorting USO.

Futures traders aren’t expecting the decline to go on forever:

December 2009 crude oil futures @ $71.45

December 2010 crude oil futures @ $77.51

]]> By: Jojo99 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124859 Jojo99 Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:22:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124859 Welcome to deflation! As to a revival of SUV's - with unemployment and foreclosures continuing to rise while credit/loan standards have been toughened, no, I don't think the age of SUV's will return anytime soon. Welcome to deflation!

As to a revival of SUV’s – with unemployment and foreclosures continuing to rise while credit/loan standards have been toughened, no, I don’t think the age of SUV’s will return anytime soon.

]]> By: marp http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124858 marp Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:09:30 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124858 USD up=oil down. How much longer is the formula going to work? USD up=oil down. How much longer is the formula going to work?

]]> By: Simon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/crude-oil-57/comment-page-1/#comment-124857 Simon Fri, 07 Nov 2008 03:54:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8354#comment-124857 Where can I buy 2015 calls?? or is that puts?. ...Someone who will discover the difference one day. Where can I buy 2015 calls?? or is that puts?.
…Someone who will discover the difference one day.

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