Department of Irresponsible Rumors: Landslide
I just spoke with a reporter for a well known national newspaper. According to this journo, exit poll data from within XXX suggested that the lead in Pennsylvania was double digits for Obama.
Note: Exit polling is notoriously crappy — if exit polls were at all reliable , we would be discussing President Kerry.
However, as I noted in yesterday’s prediction market game, the possibility of a huge one sided victory — GOP voters staying home, and motivated Obama supporters voting in droves — was the most likely of the outlier results. That might be what these polls are hinting at.
Strap yourself in for an interesting night.
I’m off to an election eve party filled with Obamicans: Republicans, including former Reagan and Nixon aides — hardcore GOPers all — who have decided to cross party lines.
Should be interesting!
UPDATE: 9:56AM
Same source says Obama is leading in Virginia and Florida
November 4th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
I’ll let you know if anyone interesting shows up a this gig!
November 4th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Hitting the big time, are we Barry? Don’t forget us little people on the way up.
November 4th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
I smell an SEC commissionership here
November 4th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Pat Buchanan occasionally writes something lucid. His most recent column is a good example:
——————————
But where did Bush go wrong?
Patrick J. Buchanan, Creators Syndicate Inc.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
After losing control of the Senate and 30 House seats in 2006, the GOP is bracing for losses of six to nine in the Senate, and two dozen to three dozen additional seats in the House.
If the party “were a dog food,” says Rep. Tom Davis, “they would take us off the shelf.”
Bush’s approval is 25 percent. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton left office with ratings more than twice as high.
But while John McCain and others have deplored the Bush failures, what, exactly, did he do wrong?
What were the policy blunders to which Republicans vehemently objected at the time?
That Bush is a Big Government Republican is undeniable. His two great social spending initiatives, prescription drug benefits for seniors under Medicare and No Child Left Behind, so testify. But how many Republicans opposed Bush on these initiatives? How many have called for the abolition of either program, or for raising payroll taxes to pay for prescription drugs?
McCain now supports the Bush judges and justices and the Bush tax cuts, as do almost all Republicans.
True, Bush sought amnesty for illegal immigrants and backs the free-trade globalism that exported our manufacturing base and 3 million to 4 million jobs. But McCain is even more enthusiastic about both.
Does the party dissent on free trade and mass immigration?
…
Full article
November 4th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Excellent chart porn in Le Monde – in French, but pretty much self-explanatory.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
I’ll let you know that I’ve registered republican and always have voted Rep. However, this time I pulled the lever for the Dems across the board and I’m in Lehigh County PA.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Lots of Republicans for Obama. I think it’s a slogan.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
jimborcher, I hear ya.
I am a Republican, but the “Republican Party” no longer represents what I believe in.
I vowed 6 years ago I would vote Democratic for 10 years as payback for the idiocy they’ve led us to.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
It’s a total slogan, without reference to the big picture, in which it’s contained. The idea that some (D) is different, in effect, than some (R), is hewing that path to delusion. It, very much, is like a Don King boxing match, he owns both sides; the tussle is, mere, theater.
Forget who wins, be sure we All lose, when we believe that we can outsource our citizenship to ‘Gov’t’.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Living in California, we’re tempted to say the state is ungovernable. Most trends start here.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
This election is really really close. The popular vote is almost 1:1 nothing like Intrade made it out to be. CNN’s prediction off of exit polls are wrong. Some states reporting are going back toward the red side. Very interesting.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
jmborchers, obama only needs 70 more votes to win. pls don’t upset me. i was just feeling really good…
November 4th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Karen those numbers you see are based on media guesses. You can’t really tell who’s won a state until 100% of the counties have reported.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
what, are we on? nothing is decided until the ‘Electors’ vote, in the middle of, next month..
Hello, MSM aside, we Do Not live in a Democracy, it is, for outward appearances, anyway, a Representative Republic.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Mark is right: “the chosen electors all meet at their respective state capitals on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their votes. The votes are then counted in a joint session of Congress on January 6.” Well, i will have drunk/drank myself to death by then. I was briefly deceived by the misleading reporting on msnbc.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Mark, i think i just figured out why i can never understand your posts. it is your flamboyant use of commas. : )
November 4th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
karen, two things: 1.) do us a favor and do Not drink yourself to d—-, and 2.) about the commas, it has more to do with poetic license to exclaim, in the negative, that too many use, far, too few..
of course, it could be, also, the rigorous effort, thanks to a 7th Grade Taskmaster of an English Teacher, to be Grammatically correct
November 4th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
BR,
is it possible to kill those auto-emoticons?
November 5th, 2008 at 1:03 am
Great. We’re now led by a couple of lawyers. Yeah, this is going to turn out well.