Dilbert on Investing
By Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2008, 4:30PM
A instant classic:
In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Macro Notes
US$ rally continuesPeter Boockvar
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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November 16th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Funny, yet true…and you also have CNBC running a contest to encourage J6P to trade currency. As Seinfeld would say, “oh this is a good idea”
http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do?__source=CNBC|hppromobox|mdpcfall08|
November 16th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
The _REAL_ reason for the global economic crisis!!
Pathetic Earthlings!
November 16th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
A couple of graphics that capture the mood:
http://tinyurl.com/kjk6v
or
http://tinyurl.com/5lj8k2
November 17th, 2008 at 12:43 am
Maybe all the problems with financials and investing are related to too much testosterone? Us guys are the real problem!
============================
NY Times
November 16, 2008
Ideas & Trends
Maybe the Meltdown’s a Guy Thing
By JUDITH H. DOBRZYNSKI
Will the down market never end? For months, policy makers around the world have tried bailouts, interest rates cuts, anything they could think of, really, to bring global markets out of their deepening depression. Once in a while, the markets do move up — only to fall again. Nothing seems to work for long.
Perhaps there’s a reason that everyone has overlooked: hormones.
If a research paper published earlier this year is correct, traders have become prisoners of their endocrine systems — testosterone, the elixir of male aggressiveness, during a bull market; cortisol, a steroid that helps the body deal with stress, when the bears take over.
The study suggests that raging hormones might explain why the men who rule the global markets send them rocketing up when they’re on a roll, and swooping down when they get scared, exhibiting judgment that can remind you of the guys in an Adam Sandler movie.
One investment strategist intuitively grasped the situation when he recently told The New York Times: “Normally markets are driven by fear and greed. Now it’s fear and fear.” In other words, instead of a rhythm of testosterone alternating with cortisol, it’s been cortisol and more cortisol for weeks. Actually there was a step in between — greed and greed, the bubble period. That’s when traders were making a lot of money, which made them pump out extra testosterone, grow overconfident and overcompetitive, and take on more and more risks that eventually went bust.
Now, in their funk, the lingering presence of cortisol makes them irrationally fearful, negative and risk averse.
….
Full article
November 17th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
I have just realized that CNBC should rename itself to PMAMFAGMAC: “Pay me a management fee and give me a carry”. Cuz that’s what it’s all about.
Sorry, was that off topic?