Comments on: Everybody Back in the Pool http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:00:47 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: jakester http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126497 jakester Sat, 15 Nov 2008 11:54:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126497 this has got to be the 3rd or so bottom call that most pundits have served up since October. Not sure what models these guys use to time the market but I'm still on a short call from 9/3. No sign of a cover/buy yet although it came very close on 10/28. I'll stay the course as the Bears are still well in control of the court. this has got to be the 3rd or so bottom call that most pundits have served up since October. Not sure what models these guys use to time the market but I’m still on a short call from 9/3. No sign of a cover/buy yet although it came very close on 10/28. I’ll stay the course as the Bears are still well in control of the court.

]]> By: Mike in Nola http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126394 Mike in Nola Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:10:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126394 The bears also have to look out for bear market rallies. As constantnormal apparently saw the 5 month 50% rally starting in late 1929. It's ok to stay bearish, as long as you have the resources and will power to sit out an adverse move that could last months. Not saying it will, but you have to take into account. Was wondering if we might see a short squeeze develop at some point if this thing has legs. The conventional wisdom, instead of being buy and hold has become "sell into the rallies" for some like the bald guy on Fast Money. The bears also have to look out for bear market rallies. As constantnormal apparently saw the 5 month 50% rally starting in late 1929. It’s ok to stay bearish, as long as you have the resources and will power to sit out an adverse move that could last months. Not saying it will, but you have to take into account.

Was wondering if we might see a short squeeze develop at some point if this thing has legs. The conventional wisdom, instead of being buy and hold has become “sell into the rallies” for some like the bald guy on Fast Money.

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126382 Andy Tabbo Fri, 14 Nov 2008 19:20:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126382 SP500 looks to go unidirectional on a break above yday's highs....watch out if you're short. - AT SP500 looks to go unidirectional on a break above yday’s highs….watch out if you’re short.

- AT

]]> By: constantnormal http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126359 constantnormal Fri, 14 Nov 2008 18:14:37 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126359 Those in the bullish camp should go review the (recently touted here) PBS program on the Crash of '29 and the Great Depression (mostly on the Crash, tho'). Carefully examine the nature of MAJOR bear market moves, especially those that are deflation-driven (as is this one), as deflation is an exceedingly difficult puppy to house-break. That's why Bernanke is so unthinkingly frantic in his attempts to inflate our way out of deflation (but it ain't working yet -- most of his capital infusions are clogging the banking arteries and not spreading throughout the body). The nature of these sort of bears is repeated and STRONGLY VICIOUS chaotic moves, designed to flense the cash from those attempting to anticipate it or reverse it (a large number of VERY wealthy individuals, including William Durant (founder of GM -- how ironic), were reduced to paupers with nothing left but the shirts on their backs. Think Kodiak bear, not black bear or even grizzly. These beasties are not to be taken lightly. The nature of deflation-driven downturns is to persist far longer than anyone believes possible -- just ask the Japanese. Those in the bullish camp should go review the (recently touted here) PBS program on the Crash of ‘29 and the Great Depression (mostly on the Crash, tho’). Carefully examine the nature of MAJOR bear market moves, especially those that are deflation-driven (as is this one), as deflation is an exceedingly difficult puppy to house-break.

That’s why Bernanke is so unthinkingly frantic in his attempts to inflate our way out of deflation (but it ain’t working yet — most of his capital infusions are clogging the banking arteries and not spreading throughout the body).

The nature of these sort of bears is repeated and STRONGLY VICIOUS chaotic moves, designed to flense the cash from those attempting to anticipate it or reverse it (a large number of VERY wealthy individuals, including William Durant (founder of GM — how ironic), were reduced to paupers with nothing left but the shirts on their backs. Think Kodiak bear, not black bear or even grizzly. These beasties are not to be taken lightly.

The nature of deflation-driven downturns is to persist far longer than anyone believes possible — just ask the Japanese.

]]> By: TrickStyle http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126353 TrickStyle Fri, 14 Nov 2008 18:07:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126353 In looking at that picture again, it occurs to me to ask if that guy is actually casting two shadows. In looking at that picture again, it occurs to me to ask if that guy is actually casting two shadows.

]]> By: DL http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126344 DL Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:50:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126344 Andy Tabbo @ 12:17 “…I have all the respect in the world for Carter Worth…” Carter Worth was correctly bearish throughout all of 2008… one of the few “mainstream” analysists to publicly declare his bearishness. But on 10/13/08, with the SPX at 1003, he turned unreservedly bullish. I found his call to be disappointing, since he had been right for an extended period. Andy Tabbo @ 12:17

“…I have all the respect in the world for Carter Worth…”

Carter Worth was correctly bearish throughout all of 2008… one of the few “mainstream” analysists to publicly declare his bearishness. But on 10/13/08, with the SPX at 1003, he turned unreservedly bullish. I found his call to be disappointing, since he had been right for an extended period.

]]> By: Pat G. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126341 Pat G. Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:48:59 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126341 For how long? A week? Speed kills. For how long? A week? Speed kills.

]]> By: Pat G. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126337 Pat G. Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:36:13 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126337 "Everybody Back in the Pool" For how long? A week? How does that work for institutional investors? I mean they are like a big ship, really hard I would guess to be that nimble with that much money. They have posession of vast sums of money through 401Ks and the like. This accumulates as retirement plans for our countrymen. I think it was Mannwich who compared investing in today's market as a "casino" the other day. We're playing with people's futures here. If you want to gamble go to Vegas or Jersey. Like everything in America we like it fast. Speed kills. “Everybody Back in the Pool”

For how long? A week? How does that work for institutional investors? I mean they are like a big ship, really hard I would guess to be that nimble with that much money. They have posession of vast sums of money through 401Ks and the like. This accumulates as retirement plans for our countrymen. I think it was Mannwich who compared investing in today’s market as a “casino” the other day. We’re playing with people’s futures here. If you want to gamble go to Vegas or Jersey. Like everything in America we like it fast. Speed kills.

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126333 Mannwich Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:23:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126333 Agree AT. To me, it seems far too easy in such a bad market to just say buy these retested "bottom" dips and call it a day. If it were that easy, we'd all get rich doing it, wouldn't we? That's why it reminds me of the housing fiasco. So many "smart" people said to "just buy real estate....it never goes down and is a great investment". Seemed a little to "easy" or too good to be true to me, and alas, it was...... Agree AT. To me, it seems far too easy in such a bad market to just say buy these retested “bottom” dips and call it a day. If it were that easy, we’d all get rich doing it, wouldn’t we?

That’s why it reminds me of the housing fiasco. So many “smart” people said to “just buy real estate….it never goes down and is a great investment”. Seemed a little to “easy” or too good to be true to me, and alas, it was……

]]> By: Andy Tabbo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/everybody-back-in-the-pool/comment-page-1/#comment-126330 Andy Tabbo Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:17:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9379#comment-126330 Mannwich: My sentiments exactly....there is no such thing as a triple bottom...the SP500 back in 2002 was NOT a triple bottom. It hit a FRESH low on 10/10/02...the "test" was on 3/12/02 and it did not put in a new low...it held 20 pts above the previous low...sellers were clearly rejected and sell side pressure was finished. And I have all the respect in the world for Carter Worth and Barry Ritholtz...I really do. And the fact that these two guys are a little bulled up should give uber-bears some pause. Carter said he's "all in long" yesterday. But here's what I'm stuck with...and you alluded to it...in really bad bearish markets, EVERYONE ends up looking bad. EVERYONE loses their mind and cash. Hell, I'll probably go broke and I can make an easy technical argument for SP500 at 300, and i actually believe we will see 600, the 61.8% lifetime retrace. - AT Mannwich:

My sentiments exactly….there is no such thing as a triple bottom…the SP500 back in 2002 was NOT a triple bottom. It hit a FRESH low on 10/10/02…the “test” was on 3/12/02 and it did not put in a new low…it held 20 pts above the previous low…sellers were clearly rejected and sell side pressure was finished.

And I have all the respect in the world for Carter Worth and Barry Ritholtz…I really do. And the fact that these two guys are a little bulled up should give uber-bears some pause. Carter said he’s “all in long” yesterday.

But here’s what I’m stuck with…and you alluded to it…in really bad bearish markets, EVERYONE ends up looking bad. EVERYONE loses their mind and cash. Hell, I’ll probably go broke and I can make an easy technical argument for SP500 at 300, and i actually believe we will see 600, the 61.8% lifetime retrace.

- AT

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