From the Sunday NYT Week-in-Review section:

via the NYT

Category: Digital Media, Politics

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

One Response to “How Will the Independents Vote?”

  1. Avl Dao says:

    Great site, Barry. Your prior comments on the 73-73 bear market helped me refine a point I made earlier. Here goes.

    The S&P 500’s bear market of 1973-74 is gaining in historical curiosity, so let’s use it as one book-end in culling insight from 1973-1982, which was the worst economic era between the Great Depression and today’s Debt Unwind Crisis.
    Jan 1973-Aug 1982 = Economic Instability = 4 Presidents in 9 years [c’mon, name em]
    Aug 1982-Aug 2008 = Economic Stability = 4 Presidents in 26 years [c’mon, name em]
    First hypothesis: No Political Stability Without Economic Stability.

    The Economically Unstable Era of Jan 1973-Aug 1982 featured, economically:
    2 Doses of energy shortages & price spikes: 73-74 & 1979
    3 Separate Recessions: 73-75 & 79-80 & 81-82
    Double-digit price inflation
    Double digit salary/wage inflation
    Double-digit interest rates w/mortgages hitting 19% for prime borrowers
    Double-digit unemployment, on and off
    Destruction of the manufacturing base in the Rust Belt
    Mass migration of blue-collar workers (& voters) to, and the Rise of, the SunBelt
    A bout of stagflation
    Bailout of Chrysler Motor Corp.
    Mini ‘Bear Market’ from Jan 1973 to Dec 1974
    Was part of a 16-yr Macro ‘Bear Market’ from 1966 to Aug1982

    Today’s evolving laundry list of economic challenges from March 2008, thru 2009 and far beyond, will be equally Breathtaking in its Scope & Scale & Diversity, but sadly, neither identical nor similar in sequencing. Sorry, no textbook provided.

    Forecast for 2008-2012:
    Expect Obama or McCain to be a 1-termer as the nation’s impatient and ‘quick-gratification addicted’ voters, many of whom also function as if financially illiterate, lurch from one political Savior-Figure to another and yet to another. These voters suffer an inability to distinguish – in advance – between promising or doomed economic policies and philosophies.
    Expect fierce campaigning to commence a mere 11 months from now for the 2010 mid-terms, and for Congress to behave as a herd of 535 cats with an ‘agenda’.
    Expect America’s economically battered voters to lose tolerance for political travails that are normally ‘over-looked’ or ‘tolerated’ during better economic times when voters are swigging down the spiked punch. For example, Clinton’s Lewinsky scandal in 1998 during the stock & tech bubble; the ‘slow-mo’ exposure of Bush’s WMD deception in 2004-06 during the housing & credit bubble; and Reagan’s Iran-Contra weapons scandal in the late 80s during the 80’s boom. Compare all three to Nixon & Watergate in 1973-74 and Nixon’s struggle with failed wage & price controls, inflation, job loss, and gas lines and rationing, during the onset of the 9-year Economic Crisis of 73-82.

    Insight: No Political Stability Without Economic Stability.