The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

9 Responses to “Investment Counselor”

1. Archiphage Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

   ‘Because the idea that I, myself, am the problem is simply unthinkable.’

2. karen Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

   He thinks he’s miserable, I’ve got a printer that hates me too!

   More Hugh Hendry for anyone interested. (It mentions silver coinage coincident to the Cliff Droke article I posted recently.)

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/3525234/Encouraged-by-a-wicked-wizard-Greenspan-Bernanke-toils-at-his-printing-press.html

3. karen Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 1:26 pm

   And for the goldbugs among us, something more upbeat at Cafe Americain:

   http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ or

   http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/citigroup-memo-points-to-gold-as-safe.html

4. Mark E Hoffer Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

   karen, nice link to the co.uk

   Hendry calling out The Wizard of FBM, that’s Classic.

   way to go, Hugh~ as you know, the World needs ever more of that Tonic.

   http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1O135-FBM.html

5. VennData Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 2:20 pm

   Coming up to four trillion in money markets:

   “…Money-market mutual-fund assets increased $33.12 billion to $3.71 trillion for the week ended Tuesday…”

   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122791524952465515.html

6. leftback Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

   “Coming up to four trillion in money markets”

   Genius money managers at work again. I ride the train with these guys pretty often and of course they are all geniuses from Ivy League schools with MBAs. They all have first names that sound like other people’s last names, live in big houses and wear fancy watches – but most of them are down about 40-50% on the year.

   They were buying up Treasuries this week as well. The usual pattern is that they sit in cash and Treasuries for too long and watch the market rally, then rush out of bonds causing a panic and run headlong into stocks – just before the bear market turns downwards again…

   A lot of people have speculated on the buying of 10-year Treasuries this past week. The best explanation I have found is that this doesn’t truly reflect a belief that inflation will be <3% for 10 years. Much of this week’s move was hedging by holders of mortgages as a way to protect themselves against early repayment risk. This week saw an increase in refi activity as mortgage rates fell. Usually this type of hedging is quite volatile and can revert sharply if mortgage rates rise again and refi action dries up.

7. karen Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 3:43 pm

   The 10 year is an anomaly that probably will reverse sharply one day. The FT ran this explanation:

   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb677540-bbe3-11dd-80e9-0000779fd18c.html

8. karen Says:
   November 30th, 2008 at 3:48 pm

   PS. But there’s no way, the 10 year’s are pricing in negative inflation. Another discussion and quip from John at Across the Curve:

   “I had not checked TIPS yields in awhile. The 10 year TIPS yields 2.57 percent which implies that the market expects a negative inflation rate of 0.38 percent on average over the next 10 years. And I want to sell you an interest in the Brooklyn Bridge.”

   http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=2192

9. batmando Says:
   December 1st, 2008 at 10:05 am

   Is anyone into PST now at these prices? How low (for how long) can it go?