Comments on: Jim Welsh on Stocks, Gold, Dollar, Bonds, ETFs http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:51:56 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Millan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/comment-page-1/#comment-126266 Millan Fri, 14 Nov 2008 07:52:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9279#comment-126266 I like this analysis for the near to middle term. For the longer term, one point to consider is the second large wave of subprime resets that crest in mid-late 2010. Six months later the wave of foreclosures will start anew and this time the investment houses holding the garbage will be banks and less able to hide it. A nascent economic recovery in late 2010/early 2011, with commodities likely running again due to accelerating supply scuttling we're seeing now and inflation gathering steam due to multi-trillion dollar deficits, will not interact well with the credit crisis, part 6. I don't see depression but I do see a market like '29 - '32 where buy and hold just wasn't effective. Deleveraging can only lead in one direction. For the near term, I am betting on a November rally. Narrowing spreads suggest risk aversion is abating and with even more easy money sloshing about than before, I believe in EJW's call for a technical rally. A weakening yen vs. dollar is my main measure of risk aversion with 99 and 104 being key markers of increasing risk appetite. I like this analysis for the near to middle term. For the longer term, one point to consider is the second large wave of subprime resets that crest in mid-late 2010. Six months later the wave of foreclosures will start anew and this time the investment houses holding the garbage will be banks and less able to hide it. A nascent economic recovery in late 2010/early 2011, with commodities likely running again due to accelerating supply scuttling we’re seeing now and inflation gathering steam due to multi-trillion dollar deficits, will not interact well with the credit crisis, part 6. I don’t see depression but I do see a market like ‘29 – ‘32 where buy and hold just wasn’t effective. Deleveraging can only lead in one direction.

For the near term, I am betting on a November rally. Narrowing spreads suggest risk aversion is abating and with even more easy money sloshing about than before, I believe in EJW’s call for a technical rally. A weakening yen vs. dollar is my main measure of risk aversion with 99 and 104 being key markers of increasing risk appetite.

]]> By: investorinpa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/comment-page-1/#comment-126239 investorinpa Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:37:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9279#comment-126239 this was a very good read...thanks barry.. this was a very good read…thanks barry..

]]> By: Barry Ritholtz http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/comment-page-1/#comment-125998 Barry Ritholtz Thu, 13 Nov 2008 15:52:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9279#comment-125998 Its a monthly commentary Its a monthly commentary

]]> By: slimsam http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/comment-page-1/#comment-125980 slimsam Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:47:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9279#comment-125980 This wasn't a blog post.. it's a novel! This wasn’t a blog post.. it’s a novel!

]]> By: jmborchers http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/comment-page-1/#comment-125955 jmborchers Thu, 13 Nov 2008 12:12:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9279#comment-125955 People were paying $86 for QID last night. I should have realized that was probably wrong for today. People were paying $86 for QID last night. I should have realized that was probably wrong for today.

]]> By: jmborchers http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/jim-welsh-on-stocks-gold-dollar-bonds-etfs/comment-page-1/#comment-125954 jmborchers Thu, 13 Nov 2008 12:10:47 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=9279#comment-125954 I think the ecomonic stim did it's job. Personally I had used majority of it to pay off some CC debt and then we had some left over. It got me comfortable with spending and the market was going up again. Funny how it worked. Unfortonately, I've had a bad run in with some appliances this summer so i could use more free money. I favor another stimulous of free money hand outs. Getting people spending and calmed down is the effect that is wanted. The other thing that needs to be done is remove the banking reserve requirements only for old loans and resume mark to make believe because now things are marked so low its ridiculous. There are houses available for less than car prices. How could that be? I think the ecomonic stim did it’s job. Personally I had used majority of it to pay off some CC debt and then we had some left over. It got me comfortable with spending and the market was going up again. Funny how it worked.

Unfortonately, I’ve had a bad run in with some appliances this summer so i could use more free money. I favor another stimulous of free money hand outs. Getting people spending and calmed down is the effect that is wanted.

The other thing that needs to be done is remove the banking reserve requirements only for old loans and resume mark to make believe because now things are marked so low its ridiculous. There are houses available for less than car prices. How could that be?

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