Someone filled my crystal ball with mud a long time ago, but since everyone else was pulling predictions out of their various orifices, I thought I’d take a shot.

There sure are a lot of crystal balls around here.

GNP dipped 33% by end of 1933 from 1928 highs.

International trade dropped by 66% over the same period.

1929 stock market valuation was disconnected from underlying economy: at least 45% overvaluation.

Weak Fed took policies which increased deflation.

“Global” economy was essentially just US and Europe.

2008 “Depression”

Economic bubble created by extreme US credit bubble.

Minor stock market overvaluation relative to economy.

No protectionist measures on trade- so far.

Much stronger global economy than in 1929.

Global Keynesian response to downturn.

I see S&P breaking 700 in 2009, economic recovery beginning 2010.

not that it much matters, though, with this: “Anybody know who Leo Farnsworth was? No of course you don’t.” take it easy. anyone who’s read MAD Magazine more than three times, had access to a set of Encyclopedias, and a Spirit of Inquiry–stumbled across the Reality of ol’ Leo, and some else..

uh, yeah. Good luck with that.

From the ‘We should have figured this out a long time ago department’: Technology creates tools. Tools are only as effective at creating results as the hand guiding them. Technology can minimize the number of hands doing the driving. Is that what you want? Tough it’s what you’ve got.

Actually, technology is going to amplify this downturn, big time, already has in fact. This is actually the beginning of the first real downturn in the global village brought to you by… the good folks at TUA –Technology Uber Alles. The first truly global societal crisis. Welcome to the 21st century brought to you by TUA

American beliefs about technology are among the most confused beliefs we have. We endlessly laud our technology while paying our technology innovators less than the garbage man. We endlessly laud ‘entrepeneurship’ while failing to note the distressing frequency with which corporations, and middle management reap the benefits created by those entrepeneurs. We offshore our technology development fantasizing that we will still retain the power attendent to those who control technology.

Anybody know who Leo Farnsworth was? No of course you don’t. He invented television believing it would usher in a golden age of knowledge and wisdom (not money). He died penniless, the profits and control of his invention having been commandeered by David Sarnoff at CBS. Farnsworth was a technological innovator, running what we would today call a ’startup’ in the ’20’s. Sarnoff was a corporate insider extremely adept at manipulation and the uses of power. Who runs the world now, the descendents of Farnsworth, or the descendants of Sarnoff?

Over-simplified perhaps but I’m convinced there is a need for a radical re-think, especially now that Wall Street has confirmed systemic stupidity is possible.

Notice that even in this look into the abyss, his final line quoted is looking for a hopeful bounce…

When he eventually gets bearish, I am all in….To his credit, his writing is gorgeous. Might I suggest that he use a chartbook to report finance rather than a thesaurus.. There is only one Abelson anyway..

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