Comments on: Momentum Top & Bottom Signals

By: guru

guru — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:34:59 +0000

Ned Davis Research uses the abundance of low priced-stocks as a metric for marking the bottom. I see $’s in front of all those single-digit stocks and see them as opportunities to make large percentage gains through their “non-expiring call options” characteristic. To see how, check out stockchartist.blogspot.com

By: DavidB

DavidB — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:05:24 +0000

correction:

You are leaving out the big 3 of TV and CNN etc. That is huge swath of viewership

By: DavidB

DavidB — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 16:01:46 +0000

flenerman,

You are leaving out all of TV and many of the major internet news sources too like Yahoo and Google who have both been shown in studies to lean left in their selection of news and news feeds.

For the ones you mentioned and the above I mentioned Obama is the ideal candidate. Just like his predecessor Bill Clinton was before him. If you are going to deny that they have all been crying havoc over the last few months leading up to the election then you haven’t been paying attention.

The real test will be what will come next though. If the markets and the media suddenly calm down and the world gets rosy again it will sure be an odd coincidence going forward. Especially since people’s credit situations haven’t changed much. But that is where the fed and the banking system come in don’t they? If they suddenly start turning on the taps and lending to each other it will be and incredible coincidence of timing. That the US election is the pivot point in the financial crisis is just too cozy for me. Especially since the US is supposedly going in the direction that is anti market

By: flenerman

flenerman — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 09:17:39 +0000

If I may play Devil’s Advocate with regard to your response to DP, Mr R—while change may be most important to those who live (or trade) at the edge, perhaps you’re too quick to dismiss one who sees the glass as 90 or 95% full.

DavidB, you might have made a reasonable argument if you didn’t succumb to paranoia. Please, sir, what is the agenda? MSM? Give me a break. Yes, the press in all it’s forms has become more concentrated than I would like, but the NYT and WSJ, WaPo and WaT, Fox and CNBC all in the same bed? Or perhaps only three of those are considered members of the MSM?

Mike

By: DavidB

DavidB — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 04:29:20 +0000

@ DP Says: November 15th, 2008 at 12:49 pm

Wouldn’t it be nice, just for once, to have the press present the same news a little differently:

and

@ Barry Ritholtz Says: November 15th, 2008 at 1:35 pm

DP: The total number is background — its a given.

I would like to agree with the argument but when murders in a city of 2 million go from 2 to 3 and the press reports that the murder rate is up 50% in screaming headlines I’ve got to think that the herd is being panicked in a specific direction in order to push an agenda. They also don’t get paid for reporting boredom. One thing I am wondering is how much all the panic screaming by the MSM has contributed to the shut down of discretionary spending this fall. It is quite interesting that once the screaming of the media started the spending stopped….and now that Obama is in office and the democrats control virtually everything I’ll bet the economy is going to get nicer again

By: arty

arty — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 04:16:11 +0000

It is time to sell if Barron is bullish

By: jakester

jakester — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 03:05:52 +0000

too many analysts price the S&P as if this were some ordinary bear market with an assumed recovery period just over the horizon. This time around is not the ordinary and until these models are adjusted accordingly, those who decide to deploy capital based on historical precidence are just asking to get obliterated in the weeks ahead.

By: DP

DP — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 23:32:30 +0000

Where do you guys do backtesting? Is there a database of historical stock prices available that anyone can get at, or is this mostly proprietary? (Any site offering stock charts, for example, must already have this data).

As a software developer who earlier this year got smacked in the face with a 2 by 4 labeled “Better start studying WHY your net worth is disappearing”, I’d love to run some tests.

By: Simon

Simon — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 22:17:13 +0000

Well I’m not a big trader, understatement, but the only idea I have at the moment beyond owning gold mining stocks and perhaps a bit of bullion soon, is to short big names like APPLE, I thought about GOOGLE but then thought again since the net and their search engine is fast becoming a basic commodity.

I do like the idea mentioned above it makes good sense at first read. Im looking forward to any follow up forth comming

By: Bruce in Tn

Bruce in Tn — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:56:55 +0000

Couple of other things, especially about when to look for the bottom.

Most of you probably saw this today, but now the european economists have gotten on the train with Roubini and Schiff, and I did like this quote..

“The third quarter looks like a walk in the park compared to what lies ahead,” said Thomas Mayer, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank in London. “This will be a deep recession.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a5Ma4RJLgOAo&refer=germany

Got to see if the old Ball Coach can make a game of it against Florida…certainly doesn’t look like it.