Non Farm Payroll for October 2008 -240,000
Once again, I am en flagrante delicto just as this report hits. Please report the details in comments . . . .
UPDATE: November 7, 2008 9:10am
Awful report by all measures. The 10th straight loss in a row. The headline loss of 240k is bad enough — worst since 2001 — but the revision of September’s figures to a drastically lower -284,000 from 159,000 is substantial.
Virtually every sector — outside of government and healthcare — reported declines.
The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 6.5 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 603,000 to 10.1 million. The 6.5% U3 unemployment rate is the highest level since 1994. U6 Unemployment — the broadest measure of j0oblessness — skyrocketed from 11% to 11.8%.
So far in 2008, a total of 1.18 million jobs have been lost (651,000 in the past three months).
Unemployment: U3 vs U6
via Jake at Econompic
>
Source:
Employment Situation Summary OCTOBER 2008
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Division of Labor Force Statistics November 7, 2008.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
November 7th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Much worse than expected. Here is the first report from MarketWatch:
The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 14-year high of 6.5% in October as nearly a quarter million jobs were lost, the Labor Department reported Friday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 240,000 in October following a revised decline of 284,000 in September, which was the largest job loss in seven years. So far in 2008, a total of 1.18 million jobs have been lost, with 651,000 coming in just the past three months. The October employment report was much worse than expected. Economists thought the jobless rate would rise to 6.3% from 6.1% in September, and expected job losses of around 210,000 in October.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com
November 7th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Stop over exaggerating Prieur. Some people were calling for -300k. The number is bad, but within the range of expectations.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:42 am
And, its likely to get worse from here.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Losses were 240k but that does not include an ADDITIONAL 179k of losses due to Aug, Sep revisions. So count it as -419k. That, as Barry aptly described, is FUGLY.
Futures barely budged, of course.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Actually, I thought the market flinched more on the ford numbers, but whatever. Did anyboody really expect a fantastic next quater?
Roubini, Barry, Nassim Talib and anybody else who’s actually paid attention this past year seems bearish as hell! Those who foresaw the top, now see the next leg down. Excuse me a moment while I change into my summer shorts…
November 7th, 2008 at 8:51 am
At what level does everyone think the unemployment figure will peak?
7%, 7.5%, 8% ???
I thought I heard someone throwing out 7%-7.5% on tv last night but I thought I’ve heard others say as high as 8.5%-9%. Maybe that was NR?
November 7th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I think it gets better from here. But I’m counting on the market going down more in Nov.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:56 am
And that numbers includes a simply unbelievable 71,000 added into the mix thru the birth/death model (including 7,000 added in construction and 13,000 added in financial services). Do these folks at the BLS think the general populace is completely ignorant? Also, more importantly than the headline unemployment rate is the U-6 rate, which rose to 11.8%. That is a much better indicator of stress in the labor markets.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Hey all,
A JD/MBA student here trying to read as much as humanly possible on all this and I am trying to learn how to gather data on my own. I have rummaging around Bureau of labor statistics website trying to figure out how to get the u6 number on my own. Does anyone have any insight on how to get this myself? I feel like from reading all these different blogs I am learning a lot but I would like to know how to gather data myself, and understand what factors to focus on. Thanks for the insight BP. And thanks for any helpful future comments.
Ted
November 7th, 2008 at 9:12 am
The numbers are bad. Can you imagine if anything near the truth were being told? This doesn’t even account for “under” employment. If you have a job, you are likely to be under employed. The people with the really good jobs have seen pay, benefits, and retirement all decrease or go away in the last few years, so even the lucky have much less to spend.
This will get much worst until continue downward until putting Americans to work and paying them well with good benefits gets popular again. That will either be done through a miracle of President Obama or we will have to wait until we are worst off and cost less than Indian or Chinese labor. Neither will happen any time soon.
I still am not sure what Bush thought when he kept encouraging offshoring of jobs and a “global” economy. Our is as good or bad as all the other countries now. Kind of like when employees started being cost rather than assets. All the formerly good companies are just like all the others now.
We have all been dumbed down and our money stolen. It should be an interesting next few years. I hope and pray President Obama has a miracle or two up his sleeve.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:14 am
U-6 data: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
Birth/Death model: http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
November 7th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Ted,
re: data gathering, you might be better served by asking Hamilton and/or Minn @ Econbrowser.com, those guys are well-steeped in academic research, and the like..
~~
and, re: how high?, Stuart’s point is a good one, U-6 is, already, in double-digit-ville..
and, BR, is, certainly, correct with: “likely to get worse from here”
November 7th, 2008 at 9:21 am
IMO, from a macro standpoint, October sure felt worse than September. So if September is now officially at 284k loss (according to the first post) then October will likely get revised down significantly below 300k, when the November numbers come out.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Roubini’s original forecasts have played out like clockwork. He was dead on. It is hard for me to believe that this positive feedback loop isn’t strongly influencing his more recent market calls. Perhaps his recent outlook has become clouded by his recent success. If I had been right about something ten times in a row, I would certainly think the 11th call was a sure thing.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:22 am
P.S. love the new blog, but one suggestion, can you add a “preview” button before submitting a comment. Thanks.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:26 am
We know that October’s number will eventually be revised down as well. Let’s say 50K. During the last year the U.S. has lost 2.85 million jobs or 7800 a day. That’s a staggering number.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Yes worse from here – historically, “unemployment season” usually begins to mount about a week or so before Xmas, and picks up just after XMAS – we are at a hiring time in Retail just before Thanksgiving – as an aside, GM, Chrysler and Ford have upped their “window request” from $25Bil to 50$bil – if they live long enough to destroy the Auto unions, and Auto wages and benefits are reduced by 2/3rd (ie the full package to an employee from $120M to $40M – then and only then will they survive – $50Bil will probably burn at the rate of $2Bil a month – can the unions survive for 18mos? or Ban all unions that use techniques to put business out of business (no strikes – take it or leave it)
Well, “Free Market” conservative republicans (small r) can concede to letting the Government operate the Oil Business, Auto Business, – open the gates to Mexico – end the war immediately (Stop the Burn rate) Pound the Drug Companies into the ground – and operate all the Medical Care in the country….Close all military bases in foreign countries – Become a missile specialist in the world and use troops for clean-up of post missile destruction ( level the mountains of Afghanistan as a test of the equipment) and detox.
Finally, give the arab countries an opportunity to survive – or let’s just castrate all men in the region
and their numbers will start to recede faster than the “hate”
November 7th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Ass-kicking is the easiest word — especially on the revisions — 600,000 jobs lost in past quarter…
Posted by: fester | Nov 7, 2008 8:39:25 AM
The old Birth Death Adjustment added 71,000 jobs, including 7,000 construction jobs, 13,000 financial jobs, and 43,000 professional service jobs. WTF!!!! The BLS should be ashamed of themselves for putting out this drivel. The number will be 400,000 when they actually put out the real numbers in 2 years.
Posted by: JGQ | Nov 7, 2008 8:41:54 AM
According to Mark Haines of CNBC he said the number was bad, real bad, “oh man this is bad”. The last two months showed a job loss of over 1/2 million. September was revised.
Posted by: JL | Nov 7, 2008 8:44:21 AM
Jobs decline by 419,000 !!
The announced jobs number for October was
-240,000 but that was just the half of it. August was revised down by 54,000 jobs and September was revised down by 124,000. Both nearly doubled the original decline we had thought they posted.
Posted by: Michael Donnelly | Nov 7, 2008 9:29:41 AM
September revised down hard, to -284 from previous -159, and the birth death model magically added 7k in Construction and 13k in Financial Activities. Does anyone believe that shyte still? here is the birth/death data link:
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
Posted by: the man from nantucket | Nov 7, 2008 9:41:55 AM
November 7th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Lets not forget the spike we will see when our reserve military personnel return after multiple rotations. They have already lost thier job and will add to the unemployment rolls.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:53 am
NOTE: Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.
For more information, see “BLS introduces new range of alternative unemployment measures,” in the October 1995 issue of the Monthly Labor Review.
Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
November 7th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Folks have been distracted first by the election, then by the financial crisis, and then by the election again. This is the first time really that really bad economic numbers are showing up and aren’t competing with anything for attention and actually sinking into the public consciousness. I think the psychological effects will be devastating.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Market doesnt seem to think so…
November 7th, 2008 at 10:07 am
i work in the broadcasting industry, and it’s a steady drumbeat of people being let go literally every day and in every city around the country.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:09 am
The rational response to the worst employment report in > 14 years and deteriorating fundamentals? A rally, of course! Nothing in this world surprises me at this point in time. I feel like I’m living in a ‘Twilight Zone’ episode… =)
HCF
November 7th, 2008 at 10:10 am
It is official the market is on LSD
November 7th, 2008 at 10:14 am
It is remarkable to be losing this many jobs when the past recovery was “jobless” – perhaps the past recovery is simply now being exposed for what it really was, not an actual recovery at all but the hocus-pocus, slight-of-hand illusion of prosperity brought about by easing of credit and credit standards.
We are in for some bad times. Perception of debt has changed. The free-lunch thinking based on rising asset values has been abandonded. The same Fed low-rate gimmick won’t work this time.
Even Bush the Unenlightened recognized that: Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice….can’t fool me again.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:21 am
> It is official the market is on LSD
Absolutely agree!
This is why THE bottom isn’t in yet: Everyone keeps on rushing to call a bottom and try to get the market to rally on ANYTHING, including good news, bad news, and especially government intervention. There’s no sign of capitulation or exhaustion among the bulls, only short covering by bears. Hope springs eternal, even if it conflicts with the facts. We get the ‘Vince Farrell bottom’ according to Kudlow, which we blew through, and now the markets are trying to defend the ‘Art Hogan bottom’ which we may blow through before it’s over. Maybe this thing only ends if we hit a ‘Nouriel Roubini bottom’ or ‘Marc Faber bottom’?
HCF
November 7th, 2008 at 10:22 am
BLS government seasonally adjustment factors got their collective a$s kicked. Private employment was revised down by 52,000 and Local education was revised down by 66,000. That’s a total of 118,000 total revised down for both Aug and Sept, from a total of 124,000.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:26 am
@ Jason:
“It is official the market is on LSD”
Not that I-Man would know anything about that but…
I and I will say:
The market is always right.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
-I dont know who said that but it’s right
Dont fight the tape guys, it wants to go higher. I keep going back to what buffett said in that NYT piece… something about the market likely to move higher before economic conditions improve, or before its obvious that they have, or before all the headlines stop being doom and gloom.
We seem to always want to impose economic conditions on the tape to justify or criticize what is happening… doesnt work that way… its already in there. Just observe, and act.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:31 am
after losin big…10%? over two days…today will probably be up…luna$ticks sez so…an if it is down…it will be nasty…
i guess he will be right!
November 7th, 2008 at 10:32 am
@ I-Man
I hear you but some of us need a severe punishment before the lesson is learned.
-Jason madly fighting off mounds of tape
November 7th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Let’s see what happens by 4pm today before we can definitively state the “market reaction” to the numbers. The numbers are downright bad no matter how you slice it. Right now you could just have the shorts covering on bad news.
Then again Prez Elect speaks at 2pm so we should all feel better then.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Am I missing something or is it not true that so far, the unemployment trends are not off of normal recessionary trend lines, even the so-called “mild” ones of ‘91 and ‘01? Not to suggest that things are not bad, but the suggestions that we are outside the bands of historical norms doesn’t seem to be (yet) substantiated.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:40 am
The big monthly increases in unemp rate seen this year – 0.5%, 0.4% and another 0.4% are three of the ten worst months since 1960.
The “not at work due to bad weather” series — which we like to use as a proxy for weather-related influences on the employment data — slid all the way to 47,000 in October from 189,000 in September. This means that the payroll outcome in October likely would have been even worse were it not for a hurricane-related rebound in employment in some sectors. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley
This report is worse than it looks.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:48 am
just for my own sense:
with this: “I have rummaging around Bureau of labor statistics website trying to figure out how to get the u6 number on my own.” from Ted, above.
I took him to mean that he was interested in the ‘collection methodology’, and such, so he could ‘re-make’ the BLS studies/reports..
that’s why I was pointing him to “Econbrowser”…
November 7th, 2008 at 10:57 am
And the numbers are going to get much, much worse before they get better. Sorry if I’m stating the obvious but the market today seems to disagree with my assessment.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:02 am
The market is up because it always goes up when jobs are cut. Job cuts are cheered on Wall St. That is one reason they are very popular. What Wall St has failed to realize is that they are all customers too. Everyone seems to be realizing that the hard way now.
It doesn’t take a business genius to cut jobs. Hopefully those cowards will be punished more than they were ever rewarded.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:04 am
“It is official the market is on LSD”
The Gonzo Market.
“Wait. We can’t stop here. This is bat country.” – Hunter S. Thompson
November 7th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Do they break the U-6 by age?
November 7th, 2008 at 11:19 am
@ Winnie:
“Wait. We can’t stop here. This is bat country.” – Hunter S. Thompson
Priceless.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Mr Hoffer and others,
Thanks for the insight. Sorry for the typos. I was trying to figure out exactly how the Bureau came to their findings, while sitting in a Wills and Trusts class. I am contemplating writing a note on the “impending” credit default swap regulation. I need to get a better understanding of what is driving (or at least an indication of) the real economy and try to tie it in to the market environment before the formation of the SEC. I am looking around econbrowser now, and it looks like just what I am looking for. Thanks again.
Ted
P.S. A preview function would be great.
P.S.S. – Could this rally Be
1. News which didn’t end the world and therefore “positive”
2. Shorts covering? – although were there really that many short positions?
3. Could this information have been leaked and therefore already factored into the drop from the last two days?
4. Random (or is random Latin for “I don’t know so I’ll say there is no rational explanation?”
November 7th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I can only contribute the works of others. Stephen Lendman is someone many people would like to know about and a search for “Imperialism 101″ will yield a link to one of his works that shows his straight forward style. That being said, he has written, with predictable clarity, a very dismal piece on our economic future dated November 5th and titled “More from the Front Lines of the Financial Crisis”- http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/19371
November 7th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
One good thing about bad numbers: they get people’s attention, and USUALLY something is done to try to rectify the situation.
YES WE CAN!!
November 7th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
i seem to recall there was a rumor that the market was logical. I can see today that has been put to rest.
November 7th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
@ willid3:
The market is smarter than you.
(and I-Man)