Comments on: Novembers in the Market http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:38:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: live hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124572 live hobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:38:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124572 You probably would steal my shoes, bozo. You don't have an original thought of your own. You asked that I acquaint myself with behavioral economics when I made no reference whatsover to any specific topic. You are a joke and just to keep you frustrated I will not respond to anything else you write and I won't even return to this page, so whatever you write you will be writing to yourself, sort of like playing with yourself, dildo! You probably would steal my shoes, bozo. You don’t have an original thought of your own. You asked that I acquaint myself with behavioral economics when I made no reference whatsover to any specific topic. You are a joke and just to keep you frustrated I will not respond to anything else you write and I won’t even return to this page, so whatever you write you will be writing to yourself, sort of like playing with yourself, dildo!

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124570 dead hobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:19:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124570 Just in case the original post never resurfaces, my point to the junior hobos was: Read some behavioral economics and learn about how the brain likes to see patterns where none really exist. (If you add Ripple to that, you will see really convincing patterns for a while). It's you lizard brain trying to make sense out of random events. Confusing Historical events and graphs with "how A reminds you of B, thus B must be coming if A just occurred" is a great way to let someone steal your shoes. Just in case the original post never resurfaces, my point to the junior hobos was:

Read some behavioral economics and learn about how the brain likes to see patterns where none really exist. (If you add Ripple to that, you will see really convincing patterns for a while). It’s you lizard brain trying to make sense out of random events.

Confusing Historical events and graphs with “how A reminds you of B, thus B must be coming if A just occurred” is a great way to let someone steal your shoes.

]]> By: ironman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124567 ironman Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:13:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124567 Keeping in mind that much of the collapse in 1929-32 was driven by some really poorly considered fiscal (Smoot-Hawley tax/tariff increase) and the Fed's deflationary monetary policies. As a result, corporate earnings and dividends went into reverse during the period, which really drove stock prices lower. Of course, while stock prices rose somewhat from that lowest level, their underlying dividends didn't begin sustaining an upward path until the <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2008/11/ranking-us-presidents.html" rel="nofollow">depression ended in 1943</a> (scroll below the ranking table of presidents for the relevant history!) As for today's market, we're going to concur with Zignals, although for <a href="http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2008/11/october-stock-market-carnage-and.html" rel="nofollow">different reasons</a>.... Keeping in mind that much of the collapse in 1929-32 was driven by some really poorly considered fiscal (Smoot-Hawley tax/tariff increase) and the Fed’s deflationary monetary policies. As a result, corporate earnings and dividends went into reverse during the period, which really drove stock prices lower. Of course, while stock prices rose somewhat from that lowest level, their underlying dividends didn’t begin sustaining an upward path until the depression ended in 1943 (scroll below the ranking table of presidents for the relevant history!)

As for today’s market, we’re going to concur with Zignals, although for different reasons….

]]> By: SanFranHobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124566 SanFranHobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:12:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124566 A hobo jungle? Thats my kinda jungle! A hobo jungle? Thats my kinda jungle!

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124565 dead hobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:03:36 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124565 What happened? I just posted something and it's not there. An attempted repost said it was a duplicate. I was commenting about the way it's starting to look like a hobo jungle here. What happened? I just posted something and it’s not there. An attempted repost said it was a duplicate. I was commenting about the way it’s starting to look like a hobo jungle here.

]]> By: dead hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124563 dead hobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:58:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124563 This place is starting to look like a frickin' hobo jungle. Yer damn right I'm smart, Bozo. I'm smart enough not to see repeating patterns when none exist, except after a little excess Ripple and then I'm liable to see about anything for a while. Acquaint yourself with a little behavioral economics and wise up some. Or I'll steal your shoes. This place is starting to look like a frickin’ hobo jungle. Yer damn right I’m smart, Bozo. I’m smart enough not to see repeating patterns when none exist, except after a little excess Ripple and then I’m liable to see about anything for a while. Acquaint yourself with a little behavioral economics and wise up some. Or I’ll steal your shoes.

]]> By: rue morgue http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124562 rue morgue Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:55:00 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124562 I don't know this is the best data to be looking at. to compare previous occurrences to this is, I think, off base. esp when the closest comparison is looking at 1929-1933...maybe interesting from a historical basis but I hope nobody's setting their watch on this. I don’t know this is the best data to be looking at. to compare previous occurrences to this is, I think, off base. esp when the closest comparison is looking at 1929-1933…maybe interesting from a historical basis but I hope nobody’s setting their watch on this.

]]> By: live hobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124558 live hobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:10:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124558 Dead hobo, you are so smart and intelligent. We can all depend on you to analyze deeply and comment extensively and on all that you read. We are all better for the extraordinary insight you dole out. Where can we find more of your priceless work? Can you please add me to your distribution list? Dead hobo, you are so smart and intelligent. We can all depend on you to analyze deeply and comment extensively and on all that you read. We are all better for the extraordinary insight you dole out. Where can we find more of your priceless work? Can you please add me to your distribution list?

]]> By: SanFranHobo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124557 SanFranHobo Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:07:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124557 "This guy makes money with this advice? No wonder so many goofballs lose money in the stock market." Observing and noting history makes him a goofball? “This guy makes money with this advice? No wonder so many goofballs lose money in the stock market.”

Observing and noting history makes him a goofball?

]]> By: Zignals http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/novembers-in-the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-124553 Zignals Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:41:21 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8020#comment-124553 In my own study of October 2008 price action I found a greater similarity to October 1974 and October 2002. Both produced a lenghty retest period of lows (1 and 4 months respectively) but both maintained the prior reaction low as the absolute low. http://www.zignals.com/main/stockalertsblog.aspx Will now be different? Best wishes, Declan P.S. We have removed our BigPicture subheading from our Blog given your earlier stance on the issue In my own study of October 2008 price action I found a greater similarity to October 1974 and October 2002. Both produced a lenghty retest period of lows (1 and 4 months respectively) but both maintained the prior reaction low as the absolute low.

http://www.zignals.com/main/stockalertsblog.aspx

Will now be different?

Best wishes,
Declan
P.S. We have removed our BigPicture subheading from our Blog given your earlier stance on the issue

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