Well, to be honest, I’m wondering why it hasn’t occurred to the U.S. government to sell some of its vast (shall we be honest and call them “excessive”?) holdings in the western U.S. to raise cash. Seems like a course of action that is almost too obvious…but certainly hasn’t happened yet.

See: Public Lands Held by the National Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management

Someone needs to get the hook and get the Sec. Treas. off the stage. It’s simply time for a little horse trading to separate assets from a land-greedy government. No big deal.

Thanks for that. One other thing that we really need to pay attention to is “seasonal cycles.” With that in mind, there is very powerful evidence of seasonal cycles in the stock markets. For whatever reason, the Nov-May time frame is a terrific time to own stocks and June to October is horrendous for investors. I guess my point is that the seasonal cycle aspects of the stock market highly suggest some sort of prolonged rally at some point during the Nov-May timeframe.

I think that rally will be the Major Degree Wave Four. For instance, if we do bottom at 768, then the 38.2% retrace of the big Third Wave would take you back to 1025. A 768 to 1025 rally would be a cool 33% return that I think is worth being long for…

And in terms of Wave analysis…a rally back to 1025 for the Major Degree Wave Four would be quite interesting…because larger degree fourth waves always seem to retrace back to areas where smaller degree wave fours complete…i.e. the 1025 level would be smack dab in the middle of where this most recent fourth wave really struggled/finished.

In terms of classical charting…this view makes a A LOT of sense. Classical chartists will be ALL OVER a “double bottom” to 2002, and they’ll be ALL OVER selling any kind of rally back to the 1000 zone, which clearly was a SMACK DOWN zone for bulls.

- AT

I am pretty much in agreement with you except on timing, although it’s possible that the anticipation of the January dump might mean that the downward wave will begin early, even before the New Year. I do not plan to be long this market beyond about 12/21 or so.

Sorry.

Anyway…I’m one of those kooks and it has been an extraordinarily successful year…..

This is my call on the SP500…the 1576 high in October 2007 finished a large B wave that began in Oct 2002. Since that point, we have been descending down in a very powerful C wave that is taking on a distinct five wave looking pattern. Wave was 1576 to 1257. Wave was 1257 to 1440. Wave began at the 1440 and has not yet completed. Within that monster Wave , the Wave – I – was 1440 to 1200. Wave – II – was 1200 to 1313. Wave – III – was 1313 to 840. Wave – IV – looks complete at 1007 on Election Day. From 1007, the – I – = – V – target is 768, which would perfectly match a double bottom to 2002!

- AT

Another range-bound trader’s market between 660 and 840 into the summer, followed by a breakout in late 2009 as inflation picks up in a big way and corporate bonds, the $ and Treasuries are pounded as interest rates and commodity prices are forced upwards. Housing prices continue to fall into 2010, then remain flat for a decade, Tokyo-style.

Some of my money is in gold stocks, some in Japanese stocks, much of it remains in cash until the lion’s share of the deflationary phase is more or less behind us.