Comments on: Pending Home Sales Index: Not Bad. . .

By: Barry Ritholtz

Barry Ritholtz — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 23:23:50 +0000

I have been busting on the NAR for emphasizing the less significant monthlies, and ignoring the year over year data.

Its finally positive, and they ignore it.

‘Tards!

By: patfla

patfla — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:52:00 +0000

Let it be noted though that Barry is able to look on the bright side of things.

By: philipat

philipat — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:23:05 +0000

Machiavelli999. If you really believe that, read this from Credit Suisse in 2007:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/282277/Credit-Suisse-Report-Mortgage-Liquidity-du-Jour-Underestimated-No-More-March-2007

We have a quiet period and then all hell breaks loose starting 2010, at a time when unemployment is peaking. By that time, even folks who can still afford payments on a 30 year fixed will be so far under water that some will start to walk away voluntarily. But don’t worry, the Guvmint will step in and bail out every single mortgage?

By: Gene

Gene — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:06:32 +0000

I though Minyanville had a much funnier headline:
Jump in Pending Home Sales Forecasts Jump in Pending Failures to Close

They reported this back in June, but it could easily apply to today’s report. In Cali, many of these “pending sales” are conditional.

This is one straw I wouldn’t grasp.

By: philipat

philipat — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:55:06 +0000

AGG:Agreed

Incomes are not going to rise and prices will fall further. Corporate America has ultimately shafted itself. USA Inc. now has the best profit margins ever, but of course there are no sales because all the jobs (And money) are in Asia. Great strategy, hey?
Off-topic corollary wrt the auto industry: Unfortunately it’s only Americans who would ever buy an American auto.

By: Pat G.

Pat G. — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:50:22 +0000

I’d scoop up a Camry for $10K. Even a pair. His and hers. I just want to point out that there are many more ARMs to reset in the coming months, lots more unemployment, therefore more foreclosures and the banks still aren’t lending. I wouldn’t be opening a keg quite yet.

By: Greg0658

Greg0658 — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:16:19 +0000

AGG – that looked like one of them 2010 Census questions.

By: Machiavelli999

Machiavelli999 — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:04:22 +0000

Just like the fall of the housing market in late 2006 was the early sign that the economy was about to crater, the rising home sales is an early sign of a recovery.

Its still a year away, but its coming guys.

By: Pool Shark

Pool Shark — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:22:25 +0000

No housing boom since WWII has bottomed (peak to trough) in less time than the boom itself (trough to peak):

http://jeffmilner.com/2007/04/a_history_of_home_values.png

Bottom = 2012 or later.

Any questions?

By: AGG

AGG — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:20:45 +0000

For those who have digested my uncomfortable thoughts, here’s the deal:
We either have inflation bring wages up to where people can afford houses OR house prices WILL fall to where people making $50,000 to 75,000 a year can buy them i.e. $100,000 to $150,000.
Stability breeds instability. All those years with a flat VIX and all those new “just in time” inventory gimmicks and all that assured labor force for peanuts is going to be history. You get what you pay for and the big boys paid us dirt so that’s what they’re going to get, good and hard. Here come the $10,000 2010 Camrys.