McCain wins contract (At time of post was 8.1%)

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=376101&z=1225824600400

Non-Democrat wins AND US Govt Debt increases (At time of post was 8.7%)

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=565197&z=1225825201155

Simple probability tells us that this is mathematically impossible, since the second is a compound probability including the first…

Probability of B = Probability of A * Probability of a debt increase under a non-Dem (<= 1)

So, mathematically, the probability of B could be equal to A or 8.1%

Given the various threads on here about these sites and the (non)wisdom of crowds, just thought this was interesting.

no, you’re not alone, the WSJ is rapidly consuming whatever ‘goodwill’ they’ve developed over their History. In the Financial Newspaper fold, the FT is the last one worth more than the paper itself.

though, that said, due to it’s, still, large circ., it’s, the WSJ, somewhat helpful to understand what’s on the DeLuxe Prole Feed Menu du jour..

I only wish they’d, the FT, pay more attention to their home delivery, here, it comes via USPS, and then, not every day–leading to doubles and triples, in some deliveries..

Even if I see an editorial I think is interesting, I catch myself and dismiss it as manipulative crap that is lying about enough to make it another shill piece. When Obama wins, will they become a print version of Rush Limbaugh, who will probably devolve into a caricature?

I’m seriously thinking of canceling my subscription and will certainly not renew if I don’t cancel. Besides, I can get enough good news for free now on the internet from a lot of sources, all conveniently bookmarked. Even some of the pieces that aren’t yet corrupt in their rag are available for free.

Is the pay version of the FT worth the extra money?

My God. Ritholtz declares himself a “liberal Republican” and in merely 5 blog posts I have “other liberal Republicans” associate that label with everything from libertarianism to yellow and blue dog democrats. I am even (inevitably) led back to poor old Rockefeller.

Forget it guys; I am the last of the Liberal Republicans. You all are just desperately grasping for a label that saves you from a connection with Bush. You can’t steal the trademark: You Starbucks Conservatives, East Coast Elite Republicans, White Stocking Effete Snobs, and Supporters of the Vast Not-quite-right-wing Conspiracy.

Slightly more seriously, there are at least two fundamentally different kinds of “liberal Republicans”: Eastern Whitestockings and Western Cowboys (no, definitely NOT the Brokeback Mountain type).. I grew up and remain one of the latter, being from the mountains of Oregon who idolized Senator Jackson of Washington( the Cold War Democrat who unfortunately begat many of the recent NeoCons), Mark Hatfield of Oregon (the ultimate Liberal Republican who sacrificed greatly in opposition to that damn Vietnam War) and my hero Senator Wayne Morse of Oregon who changed parties no less than three times becauase they couldn’t get it right — and did much to oppose the Vietnam War.

Many would-be Liberal Republicans identify with Rockefeller — especially in opposition with Goldwater, somehow considered the block-headed, radical Conservative. Why? In my opinion this was the ultimate contest between Western and Eastern Liberal Republicans. How many remember that Goldwater was pro-Civil Rights, pro-environmentalist and pro-choice. His view: Cut taxes, balance the budget and let people decide how they want to live. Maybe that is libertarian or maybe it it is just Western Liberal Republican.

The problem with us Liberal Republicans is that we have no hero, no messenger, no message, and no home. Like McCain, I love being an underdog and a house without a home.

That’s significantly higher commision than options trading and you’ve limited yourself out of major potential upside since the maximum upside on these contracts is 666%. If you bought a contract at 5 cents and paid 5 cents commision you are break even at 15 cents on the contract (counting the buy and the sell).

Playing contracts like this is a very quick way to lose lots of money considering if you make a bad trade you’ve lost 10% of your money at minimum.

Yes, folks there are such things as liberal Republicans. We don’t think government is the answer for everything. The last thing we want is wasteful government. But that’s exactly what the Grand Old Party has given us over the past 8 if not 28 years, combined with tax and fiscal policies that have built up a ponderous national debt, undermined the dollar, and weakened the foundation of our society, the middle class. But by the same token, we liberal Republicans are not pompous intellectual wannabe Libertarians. We have actually had dates and gone to parties, and we think that government does have a role to play, even in curbing the excesses of capitalism. Those of us who are liberal Republicans recognize that capitalism can be its own worst enemy. We want to make a lot of money (and I mean, more than even Kudlow, Luskin, and the little Ewok), but not have it come crashing down precipitously in financial, economic, and energy crises brought on by greed, stupidity, and short-sightedness. We believe in thought, hard work, and sustained and real economic progress.

I guess I should have summed it up by saying: It’s not that we want to be fair for the sake of being fair – which is Democratic ideology – it’s that we think being fair is essential to sustain an economic system that will make us wealthy.

The maximum profit with intrade would be 90% because you lose 5% on the buy and 5% on the sell. That’s worse than most stock option trades.