Professor Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government is also on the Recession Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Last night, he was on Bloomberg discussing the recession. He has a terrific piece in the cafe on the same subject, titled, NOW Are We In Recession?

Go check em out.

Category: Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

32 Responses to “Professor Jeffrey Frankel on the Recession”

  1. OT:

    today is Veterans’ Day, maybe this: http://www.chycho.com/?q=node/1887

    will help put some perspective around it.

    and,yes, it isn’t wildly OT, much of our current recession can be traced to the massive malinvestment know as OIF y GWOT/DHS y DoD..

  2. rww says:

    It was OT, Hoffer, but well worth it.

  3. jmborchers says:

    Yes but then oil price is still too high. Oil price is still higher than Xmas 06.

  4. jmborchers says:

    I was early but the squeeze is on the way. You can see is mostly in Tech. Coming to a market near you.

    GLW leading the way.

  5. Steve Barry says:

    There are no shorts

  6. I-Man says:

    @JB:

    I dont think this is a squeeze JB… looks like plain vanilla buying to me. And werent you just calling for a crash, yesterday??? I dont get it man, are you long or short? You’re keeping us guessing I suppose.

    Market is ultra sensitive to good news… and becoming more and more resilient in the face of bad news… which is pretty much the only news.

    Bears should tread carefully on shorting this spike…

  7. jmborchers says:

    I put a post yesterday when I changed sides. I saw multi million $ insider purchases. Now that in itself doesn’t mean things are hunky dory. However, it does put back confidence for shareholders and that’s mostly what is missing right now more than anything else.

  8. DP says:

    Well after some buys this morning and selling into this spike, Ameritrade now has me officially flagged as a “pattern day trader” and are spamming me with all kinds of crap about capital / margin requirements.

    My account is more than 60% cash and I never trade on margin (other than indirectly via leveraged etfs), so do I need to care about this new label?

  9. I-Man says:

    @ DP:

    Take a look at your account agreement, I remember when I was at ETrade, if you got labeled “Day Trader” it changed your commission levels, and affected your free trade amounts. Definitely something I would look into.

  10. jmborchers says:

    DP you have to use margin if you day trade (5 or more round trips per trading week). Otherwise you have to wait the 3 days for settlement to use only cash.

    My experience I do much better with using cash than margin. Because you have to borrow the cash for the 3 day period margin fees add up quick. I also make better decisions when I know I am stuck with something for a few days.

  11. Steve Barry says:

    How can you call short-term moves on thin holiday trading?

    1) There are no shorts to squeeze…dont even go there.

    2) 10 day put/call is putting in a bottom

    3) TickerSense blogger poll sentiment is rampantly bullish

    4) CNBC is in HEAVY “silver lining” mode…pumping for all they are worth

    5) AAII and II surveys had spikes in bullishness

    I don’t know what will happen in today’s light volume, but this market is dangerous for longs.

  12. jmborchers says:

    I don’t know but I’m getting it right.

  13. karen says:

    jm, you are hilarious : )

    steve, show me a stock that doesn’t have a short position, pls. i can’t spend the rest of the day typing in tickers, but i just found two for jmborchers and me, lulu and jcg…

  14. Steve Barry says:

    karen,

    I’m speaking realtively of course…QQQQ has a short ratio of 1/2 day’s volume for example. In my book, that is no short interest that can be squeezed. Same for major Nasdaq names. Based on market trend, we should see 3-4 days minimum.

  15. jmborchers says:

    I would like to see this taken back up into the close. I didn’t get enough gain to sell my options. I didn’t buy my covered calls back either.

  16. karen says:

    sorry, steve, i’m literal to a fault, just one of my many shortcomings. i bet you’d enjoy this article by michael lewis of liar’s pocker fame:

    http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom

  17. Steve Barry says:

    Idiot Fund Manager on CNBC:

    “I like Goldman Sachs…they are probably shorting the market and will make a killing. I own it…I loved it at 160 and still like it. They will continue to do well.”

    The stock is at 72. What a moron.

  18. karen says:

    jm, another one that’s gonna get squeezed is urbn.

  19. DP says:

    Bring on that 1000 point drop, let’s just get it out of the way already.

    I find myself wondering how many hedge funds will turn out to be in more cash than they need…

  20. catman says:

    If I were a pension fund… The Lewis article made my teeth hurt. The Vegas dinner scene is beyond priceless. But now the same compulsion, the reach for yield, that made our current disaster possible should actually begin to put a floor under our stock market. If I were a pension fund I believe my need for yield and my fiduciary responsibilities (now thats quaint) would have the likes of PFE or GE or DD with their rather handsome payouts begging to be bought and held. The sniping about Buffett and Grantham, or even the MSM’s new darling Ritholtz turning bullish ignores the realities of institutional needs and the emphasis on the next big swing (as opposed to a bit of scalping)… The very bold bears around here who have been right for a year or more are growing increasingly ideological in their rationales for a continuation of the current trend, while the market itself seems to have passed out of the panic phase and into a fetid yearend funk .

  21. Steve Barry says:

    Am I undertsanding this right? Is CNBC encouraging people to trade currencies? Please tell me I’m wrong.

    http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do

  22. Mannwich says:

    Great article, Karen. But the prevailing question is – will people ever TRULY learn? Is the jig really up?

    Why do I get the feeling we’ll go down this path again in another 4-5 years?

  23. Steve Barry says:

    JM:

    You WERE right…for about an hour

  24. karen says:

    yeah, but Steve, just wait 10 minutes. only kidding… this market is so broken; i’m not sure if it can ever be fixed. heck, we can’t even call it a market. it’s a casino.

  25. karen says:

    oops, looks like we’re in Montana now, if you don’t like the weather, wait 10 minutes.

    this isn’t a market, this is a casino. or maybe a rodeo and we are the clowns…

  26. karen says:

    we aren’t in kansas anymore! we’re in montana where it’s said, “if you don’t like the weather, wait 10 minutes.”

    this isn’t a market, it’s a casino. or maybe a rode and we are the clowns.

  27. On the recession theme, this: http://www.chycho.com/?q=chycho_economics_2008

    is well done, and informative..

  28. DP says:

    But don’t forget Steve, “we closed well off the lows of the day” :)

  29. DP says:

    On the shorts question, Nasdaq just put this out:

    Short interest in 532 securities on The NASDAQ Capital Market(sm) totaled 145,998,762 shares at the end of the settlement date of October 31, 2008, compared with 154,938,214 shares in 530 securities for the previous reporting period. This represents 3.95 days average daily volume, compared with the previous reporting period’s figure of 3.90.

    In summary, short interest in all 3,142 NASDAQ(r) securities totaled 7,858,548,859 shares at the end of the October 31, 2008 settlement date, compared with 3,139 issues and 8,113,949,271 shares at the end of the previous reporting period. This is 2.73 days average daily volume, compared with an average of 3.43 days for the previous reporting period.

    The open short interest positions reported for each NASDAQ security reflect the total number of shares sold short by all broker/dealers regardless of their exchange affiliations. A short sale is generally understood to mean the sale of a security that the seller does not own or any sale that is consummated by the delivery of a security borrowed by or for the account of the seller.

  30. Steve Barry says:

    DP:

    Great…thanks for the new data…and yes, we are well off our lows of the day. Another mustard seed.

  31. I-Man says:

    @ KAREN:

    Karen, You rock. Thanks for posting that link to the Lewis article… a must read.

    I’d like to share my favorite quote from the article.

    “It’s laissez-faire until you get in deep shit.” -John Gutfreund

  32. karen says:

    so sorry for the triple post… blame barry : )

    i’m embarrassed; but my first post wouldn’t take. i do not have a photographic memory and i finally figured, after 3 strikes, i’m out…

    glad you enjoyed the michael lewis link, as did I!