Rescuing Turkeys
By Barry Ritholtz - November 26th, 2008, 4:30PM
Enjoy your Turkey Day Year:
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Safe travel . . .
"My formula for success is rise early, work late and strike oil." —John Paul Getty
Macro Notes
Consumer Credit continues downward trendPeter Boockvar
Consumer Credit outstanding fell $14.8b in Sept seasonally adjusted, almost $5b more than expected and marks the 11th month in the past 12 of declines. At $2.456T outstanding, it is 4.9% below the record high in July '08. After a flat reading in Aug, (didn't fall b/c of the CARS program), non revolving debt outstanding fell by $4.9B. Revolving (mostly credit cards) balances outstanding fell by $9.9B. To fully put into perspective today's data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn't include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2%...
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November 26th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Speaking of turkeys, it occurred to me that the growing cult of personality surrounding Nouriel Roubini is bound to end in disaster. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate his commentary on the current situation, but I wonder:
Will he:
1) Get too confident and overextend himself, or as he gains prominence as a pundit
2) Will he begin mimicking the other pundits (similar to your typical billion dollar fund manager who is incentivized not to lose more than anyone else)?
3) Or is this just his time – the old saying that even a stopped watch is right twice a day?
As more people jump on his bandwagon, I’m inclined to start moving contrary to him.
November 27th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Speaking of Turkeys and Paulson:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081126/aig_investment.html
AIG receives $40 billion from government program.
“AIG said it will use a portion of the $40 billion investment to pay off part of the previous loan from the Federal Reserve. It will reduce the maximum capacity of the loan……”
My question is: Does this mean AIG has been given a never ending credit card? How can the new loan be used to pay off the old loan?? If we give them a new loan can that be used to pay off the first loan, or does it have to be kept to pay off the second loan that paid off the first loan? Or does it have to be kept in reserve to pay off future loans that can’t be paid off?
I’M SO CONFUSED!
November 27th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Dr Doom probably won’t be the Turkey this year.
With some $50-60 tr in wealth that has disappeared, it means the financial sector is too big. It was getting some 1-5% to manage this wealth.
Just as overbuilding in houses results in construction companies laying off workers, maybe 50% of the house builders of 2005 (?), overleverage of finance means too many bankers. Maybe 50%?
The ‘bailout’ handout is to keep too many bankers getting paychecks. Good money after bad — they’re dead, they should be ended quickly and better banks should get their good business, with bad CDO business dying.
November 27th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Yeah, I guess it is cheesy, but at the end of the day, it is my family and friends that I am most thankful for. They are always there in good times or bad, whether I’m naughty or nice, through the thick and the thin. In a weird way, tough times such as these make me appreciate them even more, and I love them.
On a lighter note, I am thankful for …
1. My iPod
2. My fun job (I am a video game developer)
3. My ‘96 Ford Taurus, may it run forever.
Peace out