Comments on: Retail Sales Collapse http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:06:57 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: rob http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125254 rob Mon, 10 Nov 2008 04:52:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125254 These numbers seem light! End of excessive consumerism couldn't come quick enough for me! I have watched with jaw dropped as the bunch of spoiled ass Americans have "partied" for years. Now their time has come to pay the piper! Remember the time when someone would save years to buy a house, and even then it was only 900 sq ft? In the next 10 years, that will be the Mcmansions. No damn wonder everyone in the world can't stand us, we showboat to the point of absurdity! Richest economy in the world, highest GDP, and yet we do nothing worthy of it except feed our egos and arrogance. Sad! Not everyone fits in this catagory, but EVERYONE knows someone that does! These numbers seem light! End of excessive consumerism couldn’t come quick enough for me! I have watched with jaw dropped as the bunch of spoiled ass Americans have “partied” for years. Now their time has come to pay the piper! Remember the time when someone would save years to buy a house, and even then it was only 900 sq ft? In the next 10 years, that will be the Mcmansions. No damn wonder everyone in the world can’t stand us, we showboat to the point of absurdity! Richest economy in the world, highest GDP, and yet we do nothing worthy of it except feed our egos and arrogance. Sad! Not everyone fits in this catagory, but EVERYONE knows someone that does!

]]> By: VennData http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125251 VennData Mon, 10 Nov 2008 03:26:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125251 Give me a lever long enough, a fulcrum strong enough and I’ll move the world” - Archimedes Give me a de-lever long enough - measured in quarters... or even years - and your portfolio will have a movement of its own - VennData Give me a lever long enough, a fulcrum strong enough and I’ll move the world” – Archimedes

Give me a de-lever long enough – measured in quarters… or even years – and your portfolio will have a movement of its own – VennData

]]> By: jmborchers http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125239 jmborchers Mon, 10 Nov 2008 01:13:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125239 The real story tomorrow is AIG. Overseas markets are funny though. Korea is relatively flat, Japan up over 5% and Austrailia slightly down. What a mess. The real story tomorrow is AIG. Overseas markets are funny though. Korea is relatively flat, Japan up over 5% and Austrailia slightly down. What a mess.

]]> By: peachin http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125238 peachin Mon, 10 Nov 2008 01:04:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125238 lota guessing here, lota nonsense, lota bullshit, no one knows....people have been robbing their envelope systems - paying half this month, half next month, the big word in the homes today is NO, followed by NO More - followed by I've got a headache. The children ask, what's wrong with daddy, "he's depressed!" No where to go, no where to hide - is the response for people looking for a safe place for what's left of their savings - people running to a bank who stopped withdrawals (sure you'll get your money - but when?) What are we gona do? Have any friends who lost their jobs? I have several and they were good paying jobs - some professionals - all those BMW on the block are leased - daddy, "why are the tow trucks out there?" Raise your hands "how many of you are not worried where your money? What is the best security in this country - being a recipient of US. Government Wages, Benefits, etc. as good or better than US Gov. Bonds! Adversity is the seed of Opportunity! lota guessing here, lota nonsense, lota bullshit, no one knows….people have been robbing their envelope systems – paying half this month, half next month, the big word in the homes today is NO, followed by NO More – followed by I’ve got a headache. The children ask, what’s wrong with daddy, “he’s depressed!”

No where to go, no where to hide – is the response for people looking for a safe place for what’s left of their savings – people running to a bank who stopped withdrawals (sure you’ll get your money – but when?)

What are we gona do? Have any friends who lost their jobs? I have several and they were good paying jobs – some professionals – all those BMW on the block are leased – daddy, “why are the tow trucks out there?”

Raise your hands “how many of you are not worried where your money?

What is the best security in this country – being a recipient of US. Government Wages, Benefits, etc.
as good or better than US Gov. Bonds!

Adversity is the seed of Opportunity!

]]> By: jmborchers http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125237 jmborchers Mon, 10 Nov 2008 00:50:56 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125237 Futures are up because why? China has a bailout is what I heard on Bloomberg radio. Well okay, but that has nothing to do with the rest of the world. I'm sticking with my short option covered call position this week although it may look like a wrong choice. Anyone ever measured how frequently futures are wrong on a 24 hr basis? Futures are up because why? China has a bailout is what I heard on Bloomberg radio. Well okay, but that has nothing to do with the rest of the world. I’m sticking with my short option covered call position this week although it may look like a wrong choice.

Anyone ever measured how frequently futures are wrong on a 24 hr basis?

]]> By: isolde100 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125232 isolde100 Sun, 09 Nov 2008 23:55:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125232 I saw another report on retail sales that shows Neiman Marcus down approximately 25%. Here is what I have seen in San Francisco: the small boutiques that sell expensive clothes and accessories are already holding 25%-30% off sales, a few high-end shoe stores have already discounted the new collection (fall boots) at 50%. I bought a pair last week. It's not even Thanksgiving. Surprisingly, Bloomingdales which I visited last week, had very few sales in the women's clothing section. A couple of racks here and there with mostly summer/early fall items were on sale and that's it. I think this is delusional because people right now still have jobs and a bit of money, so they are flocking to the boutiques and stores that offer discounts. By the time Bloomies gets around to 30% - 50% off sales, the shoppers will have already spent their holiday shopping money (or they will have already received their pink slips). Same delusional behavior at Neimans and Saks, which I visited this weekend. The clothes are piling up, the racks are absolutely filled to the brim with unsold merchandise, and certain designers who usually run out of the small sizes at the beginning of the season, still have them on the racks. This tells me they're not selling at all. A friend of mine who loves Williams-Sonoma was absolutely shocked to see items that NEVER go on sale, finally on sale for 30% or more. But she's waiting till after Christmas! It's going to be very bad. I saw another report on retail sales that shows Neiman Marcus down approximately 25%. Here is what I have seen in San Francisco: the small boutiques that sell expensive clothes and accessories are already holding 25%-30% off sales, a few high-end shoe stores have already discounted the new collection (fall boots) at 50%. I bought a pair last week. It’s not even Thanksgiving.

Surprisingly, Bloomingdales which I visited last week, had very few sales in the women’s clothing section. A couple of racks here and there with mostly summer/early fall items were on sale and that’s it. I think this is delusional because people right now still have jobs and a bit of money, so they are flocking to the boutiques and stores that offer discounts. By the time Bloomies gets around to 30% – 50% off sales, the shoppers will have already spent their holiday shopping money (or they will have already received their pink slips). Same delusional behavior at Neimans and Saks, which I visited this weekend. The clothes are piling up, the racks are absolutely filled to the brim with unsold merchandise, and certain designers who usually run out of the small sizes at the beginning of the season, still have them on the racks. This tells me they’re not selling at all.

A friend of mine who loves Williams-Sonoma was absolutely shocked to see items that NEVER go on sale, finally on sale for 30% or more. But she’s waiting till after Christmas! It’s going to be very bad.

]]> By: MikeDonnelly http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125231 MikeDonnelly Sun, 09 Nov 2008 23:39:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125231 Barry, I've already contacted the WSJ about this story. It seems very fishy to me. Take for example the August 2008 or any story earlier this year (I've been tracking this closely since about April of this year) In each retail sales report we always get about 24-26 stores reporting data. So why only 10 stores this time around? I find that strange. Were the sales in the remaining 16 stores so bad, they chose not to report (or they've gone out of business?) Anyway, I'd like to see the remaining stores report. And for the rest of you Wal-Mart and Sam's sell food which is why they have positive sales. Food inflation is up almost 6% and they have sales under 3%, it's pure price movement keeping their nominal y/y sales up. Barry, I’ve already contacted the WSJ about this story. It seems very fishy to me.

Take for example the August 2008 or any story earlier this year (I’ve been tracking this closely since about April of this year)

In each retail sales report we always get about 24-26 stores reporting data. So why only 10 stores this time around? I find that strange. Were the sales in the remaining 16 stores so bad, they chose not to report (or they’ve gone out of business?)

Anyway, I’d like to see the remaining stores report. And for the rest of you Wal-Mart and Sam’s sell food which is why they have positive sales. Food inflation is up almost 6% and they have sales under 3%, it’s pure price movement keeping their nominal y/y sales up.

]]> By: AGG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125230 AGG Sun, 09 Nov 2008 23:30:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125230 If this happens we will have dodged a depression: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/what-obama-needs-to-do.aspx If this happens we will have dodged a depression:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/what-obama-needs-to-do.aspx

]]> By: dingojoe http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125229 dingojoe Sun, 09 Nov 2008 23:15:47 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125229 Gas prices have plunged quite a bit. I'd guess food prices have more to do with it than gas, as grocery prices have been far stickier in dropping than gas prices. Plus grocery sales account for far more of Costco and Wal Mart's sales than gas. Hate to see what kind of numbers the dogs are putting up--Sears, KMart, Circuit City. Gas prices have plunged quite a bit. I’d guess food prices have more to do with it than gas, as grocery prices have been far stickier in dropping than gas prices. Plus grocery sales account for far more of Costco and Wal Mart’s sales than gas.

Hate to see what kind of numbers the dogs are putting up–Sears, KMart, Circuit City.

]]> By: larster http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse/comment-page-1/#comment-125227 larster Sun, 09 Nov 2008 23:09:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=8428#comment-125227 Couldn't agree more w/Costco and WM. Just got back from the Big Island and the gas at Costco was 85 cents per gallon below other stations. You had to park in the boonies, as all reg parking was blocked by the gas lines. As far as lower gas prices juicing holiday sales, my opinion is LOL. Something is happening out there and a few bucks saved at the pump is not going to turn this around. To use my Big Island example again, visits in Sept were down 31% from a year ago. This was before the largest stock market collapse and Hawaii is not some place that you decide to go to on the spur of the moment. Based on this (which is factual and not supposition) I would run not walk away from any liesure stock associated w/ the travel/vacation industry. Couldn’t agree more w/Costco and WM. Just got back from the Big Island and the gas at Costco was 85 cents per gallon below other stations. You had to park in the boonies, as all reg parking was blocked by the gas lines.

As far as lower gas prices juicing holiday sales, my opinion is LOL. Something is happening out there and a few bucks saved at the pump is not going to turn this around. To use my Big Island example again, visits in Sept were down 31% from a year ago. This was before the largest stock market collapse and Hawaii is not some place that you decide to go to on the spur of the moment. Based on this (which is factual and not supposition) I would run not walk away from any liesure stock associated w/ the travel/vacation industry.

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