Part I

Part II

Part III

Hat tip: Calculated Risk

Category: Markets, Real Estate, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “Shiller: Crisis May Run for ‘Years and Years’”

  1. Jojo99 says:

    I couldn’t see these video’s until I closed FF and manually cleared my cache folder. Maybe this action can help someone else.

  2. peachin says:

    The Future of our economy is uncertain. Any statement other than mine is irresponsible – it doesn’t take a HVAC Sales and service company to know any other answer. These “Name Brand” talking experts seem foolish in their facts and reasons leading to certain solutions and time frames. The best answer to the question “How long does is this crisis going to run?” the correct and only answer is “We’ll see” using the word “May” defeats his answer. we need to classify all of these experts – do a 60Minutes, with them present and play back “time and date” opinions and statements in prior periods, to them in front of the cameras, then ask them “what were you thinking?” . So far two or three have nailed it and the rest are noise and bull shit.

  3. Mike in Nola says:

    peachin:

    You might want to check the guy out before trashing him. Maybe you would find he called the housing bubble in 2005 and the tech bubble in 2000 just before it popped.

    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/shiller_on_the_.html

    http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/index.htm

    I don’t expect him to be exactly right. No one is. But he’s been one of the “rightest” so far.

  4. Mike in Nola says:

    Sorry, I misspoke slightly above. What I meant to say was that Shiller called the tech bubble before it peaked. By amazing coincidence, I just started Riding the Bear by Sy Harding. Copyright 1999. On page 4 he mentions Professor Shiller’s drawing parallels between conditions in the 1920′s and those of the 1990′s.

  5. Steve Barry says:

    Even he shies away from calling a new depression though…it’s amazing. I think he doesn’t want to scare people. He’s also sloppy with his own data…housing has fallen nominally 40% off its runup, 30% if you adjust for inflation…not 50% as he says. Housing should be at a fair price in 2016 and will probably overshoot.

    His wild idea to automatically mark individual mortgages down in a housing downturn is interesting…would we mark them up in a boom? Should we adjust them for inflation?

  6. Mike in Nola says:

    Steve:

    Actually, Hussman has proposed an idea somewhat similar to yours: a haircut for lenders now, but with a share of appreciation, if any, up to the original mortgage. See point 4 here:

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080922.htm

    Looks like the Brits may be worse off than we are. Saft neatly exposes the uselessness of trying to reflate the mortgage market by guaranteeing new mortgage backed securities at the current cost of housing: no one wants to borrow to buy houses that are too expensive and are depreciating. And, who wants to buy the debt considering recent experience of buyers of securitized mortgages?

    http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/28/even-uk-guarantee-cant-stop-housing-crash/

  7. leftback says:

    @peachin: Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition…

    Or a housing crash with a series of associated bubbles popping, except Shiller clearly predicted it (very early), and so did Roubini, and Faber, and Mish and CR and Todd Harrison and Barry Ritholtz.

    Before this is all over, everyone is going to look at blogs in a completely different way. The truth is here, and over there in the MSM (Ben Stein, many of the WSJ goons, etc..)…. not so much. I would say that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the FT has been OK in the truth department. Krugman has been OK in a wishy-washy liberal kind of way. Interesting how bearishness is OK in the MSM now that it has become mainstream. There is a contrarian indicator for some of us…